Sept. 1, 2019 stocks of soybeans totaled 913 million bushels, with 648 million stored off farms (71%) and 265 million stored on farms (29%).  Sept. 1, 2019 stocks of corn totaled 2.114 billion bushels, with 1.361 billion stored off farm (64%) and 753 million stored on farm (36%).  The average guess for corn stocks was 2.428 billion.  Basis has been hinting to us for a while now that stocks were lighter than we anticipated.  Weather remains the other "watch" as most places continue to be saturated.  The forecast continues to look like above normal precip in the 6-10 day.  Eastern Iowa and N Illinois look to be the main target area this week.  So the question now is….How high can we go?  Corn filled the gap on the daily chart today, but failed to trade above it.  If we can trade above it tomorrow $4.00 Dec futures may be in the cards yet this week.  If you want to look at retracement levels and moving averages things kind of line up around the 4.09 and 4.12 Dec area.  The target on beans remains the old June high of 9.48 Nov futures.  Rumors have it that China is going to buy more beans this week, so we will be looking for that on the morning wires the balance of the week.

USDA announced another sale of 257,000 tons of soybeans to China this morning.  Even with these current sales to China the market is having a hard time gaining any ground.  The weather over the next 10 looks very wet for much of Iowa with eastern Iowa in the bullseye for 4-6 inches of rain.  Frost concerns are also looking more legit as Montana and North Dakota look to be in the most danger.  Reminder, only 59% of corn in ND in dent stage as of Sep 22 and a third of soybeans are not yet dropping leaves in ND.  MN and South Dakota have a minor threat, but still at risk.  The stocks report is on Monday, September 30th.  That will be the next market mover.  It feels to me like the market is comfortable and waiting for combines to roll to prove the USDA wrong.  Is the crop out there?  What will ethanol usage be?  Can exports improve?  Are stocks on old crop as big as their telling us?  These are main questions I need answered and that might not happen until January.  It basically boils down to is the crop good enough for the demand we have?  Right now, that answer is yes.  Basis on the other hand is hinting otherwise.

Today we had the USDA confirm a sale of 581,000 metric tons of soybeans to China. Most traders feel there was more done than that, so maybe we will see more again the next couple days.  A chance of frost looms for next week as the forecast switches to below normal temps and above normal precip on the 6-10 day.  Hopefully we can miss the rain as we are already too wet in many areas.  The good news today is that the US and Japan officially signed an agreement on trade.  With this agreement, Japan will reduce or eliminate tariffs on an additional $7.2 billion of agricultural products.  The other major headline today was that the Democrats are going to try and push for impeachment of President Trump.  I am not going to get into details, but it feels like the Dems are fighting an uphill battle on that topic.  It is interesting times in politics to say the least.  Typically, an impeachment is bad for the grain markets, but we didn’t seem worried today.  The DOW was also up 150 points today.  Some early beans are starting to come off.  If you have any early yields to report to me that would be great.  It is always good to hear some early yields so we have a better idea on production.

Yesterday we were talking about more beans to China, but nothing got confirmed by the USDA on this morning wires.  Something definitely got done, but to what extent.  More rumors today of beans being sold to China out of the gulf.  There are definitely more and more brokers poking around for beans, but the numbers I have heard only work for North Dakota and maybe northern MN.  Bean ownership in the country is very light compared to most years, so I don't think they are finding many willing sellers yet.  Some early beans are close to being harvested, but most beans are still a couple weeks out.  On the corn side, we did have a sale to Mexico announced this morning of 200,000 tonnes.  Basis on corn is going to be day to day on nearby corn as the processor doesn't want to pay any more for corn than they need too.  If you still have old crop corn there still might be an opportunity on basis pushes into October.  It might be easier to call me and let me know you are looking.  Direct delivery into a processor is also an option.  I can do the work for you to find you the best price available. 

Beans led the way higher today up a dime on news that China was back in the market for some US beans.  The rumor was around 1.0 mmt worth of volume.  I did take a couple calls today on beans from the exporter and rail premiums were a touch firmer, so something must have gotten done.  Now we just wait for confirmation from the USDA on sales announcements.  Minneapolis wheat was the other story as North Dakota received a large amount of rain over the weekend and they still have a bunch of wheat to combine that is becoming off quality in a hurry.  Corn is still having a hard time gaining strength as weather remains warmer than normal pushing some of this late crop closer to maturity.  Export demand remains poor, which also doesn't help.  Old crop premiums disappeared on the rail today, which is causing the country to go to new crop values.  Ethanol demand will be the leader for another couple weeks as they await corn harvest to get any volumes to move.  I am hearing some ethanol plants are starting to slow grind in order to make it to harvest, so they don't have to pay premiums for corn. 

Another pretty quiet day for the most part until one headline caught the attention of the market this morning.  The China delegation has cancelled their farm visit to Montana to head back to China early.  Both corn and beans seemed to react lower once that story broke.  Other news today was very quiet.  Weather remains warm for the next two weeks allowing this crop to get closer to reaching maturity, which is also keeping a lid on these grain markets.  Minneapolis wheat has been the leader lately as quality concerns continue in the northern plains.  Corn may need to rally vs wheat at some point, but I am still convinced that may not happen until November, maybe even as late as January.  For the week corn was up 2, beans were down 15, and wheat was up 19 in Minneapolis.  Have a good weekend.

Crude oil is the big story again today as Saudi Arabia says they are already running at 70% efficiency (that sounds a bit fishy).  Crude at the time of the grain close is down $3.50.  I have been hearing multiple reports of African Swine Fever now in South Korea, which in time should help US exports of pork.  We will have to keep an eye on that.  The grains were lower today as we basically just gave back yesterday's gains due to the oil strength.  We had another announcement by the USDA of another sale to China, so it now totals 720 tmt.  That is right in line with the estimates we heard.  Weather still looks favorable for the balance of Sept keeping a lid on grain prices.

The big news over the weekend was the drone attack on Saudi Oil assets.  Crude oil is currently trading up 7 bucks, which is about $1.50 off the overnight highs.  Gas was up 13c at the pump today as a result as well.  The extent of the damage is yet to be determined.  Corn and beans seemed to borrow some of the oil strength to finish the day up 5 and 1 respectively.  We are starting to hear more early yields being reported, so that remains the watch.  Basis in the east seems to have crashed as a result of some early harvest.  Western corn basis remains strong as most areas in the upper Midwest likely won't see any volumes until late October.  Ethanol plants likely have new crop bought, but October delivery will be tough to find.  There still feels like there is more old crop in the bins, but it doesn't want to move at these levels.  With that being said, it still doesn't feel like we have a 2.4 billion old crop carryout.  For those of you looking ahead…Dec 2020 futures are trading 4.10.  The high on the July rally was 4.23.  That might look good if we decide to plant 95-97 million corn acres next year due to all these PP acres.  Just a thought.

We had some good news with China this morning as it feels like both sides are trying to send little olive branches to each other.  Trump tweeted around 8:00 am that China was going to be buying agricultural products (which is about the 82^nd time we have heard that).  Only this time it seems like it did happen.  I am hearing it was 600,000 tonnes off the PNW.  Bean bids did perk up and BNSF freight also looks like it is off the lows due to this bean sale.  Today was the USDA report, which was friendly for beans and bearish for corn.  Corn tried to break through the lows seconds after the report and failed and managed to finish up 7 cents following the bean market.  The USDA pegged corn yield at 168.2 down from 169.5 in August.  Corn carryout for 19/20 was put at 2.190 billion vs 2.181 in August.  Bean yield was pegged at 47.9 down from 48.5 in August.  2019/20 Bean carryout was lowered to 640 million vs 755 in August.  Beans finished up 29 right at the first resistance level.  Hopefully we can break through that tomorrow.

Not much news today as we await tomorrows USDA report at 11:00 am.  Estimates have the corn yield at 167.2 vs 169.5 in August.  My guess is closer to 168.5 as I don't see the USDA changing their tone at this point.  The average guess for corn carryout is 2.002 billion vs 2.181 billion in August.  My guess is they will be closer to 2.150 as there is room to lower exports to offset a slightly lower yield.  The bean yield estimate is at 47.2 bpa vs 48.5 bpa in August.  Carryout on beans is estimated at 665 million vs 755 in August.  My guess is we are over 700 million on this report.  Like I said before I just don't see the USDA changing their tone on this report as exports are also in doubt on the beans at this point.  Basis on corn stays firm as movement is slow and a late harvest will also play a hand in a firm basis for now.  Bean basis is trying to pucker, but is also looking at a later harvest so it could be a head fake for now.   Weather remains we this week, but warms up nicely starting Sunday.  We might need more than 4 days in the 80's, but we will take it.  The threat of a frost on Sept. 23-24 looks a bit more real today as both models are starting to agree.  We will see!

Corn and beans had a nice bounce today with corn finishing up 7 cents and beans up 15 cents.  Corn was the leader early on the 3% drop in good to excellent yesterday afternoon.  Around 10 am beans caught a bid and raced up 15-17 cents.  The forecast for the 6-10 and 8-14 day remain above normal temps.  I did see one report on twitter today from John Dee saying "The GFS sees a strong upper air trough to swing through the central US by the end of the period (Sept 23-24) and bring well below average temps, including the chance for a freeze in the Dakotas portions of MN and NW IA."  That wouldn't be good, but it’s a ways out and that can change.  The European model has been the more accurate one, so let’s see how that one looks as we get closer.  Crop quality is getting more press today as elevators and producers are getting nervous.  What will we end up with for test weight and moisture?  Export demand remains poor to non-existent.  Low prices have not seemed to help out in that department yet.  The USDA report is on Thursday at 11:00 AM.

Another quiet day in the grain market as corn finished down a penny and beans finished unchanged.  Weather maps over the weekend looked warmer in the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecast, which eliminates the threat of frost thru most of September.  Since there is no weather premium in this market, we tried to trade lower this morning, but still managed to finish near unchanged.  The rain can stop anytime though as this week looks very wet.  Silage season is getting close as our average burn down late last week was at 72%.  Corn conditions were down 3% tonight at 55% good-excellent.  Bean conditions were unchanged at 55% good-excellent.  Trade thoughts were unchanged on both, so corn might start a touch better tonight.  The two stats that looked the most interesting in corn was denting at 55% vs the five year avg of 77% and the percent of the crop mature was 11% vs the five year average of 24%.  Carries remain near their widest levels on corn and beans, so it is a good time to look at rolling HTA's.  Give me a call if you have questions.

The corn market couldn't hold onto overnight gains as the December corn chart looks ugly.  Funds are leading the way as the only sellers in the market and are now back over 100k contracts short in corn as we made new lows again today.  That position feels a bit risky in my opinion, but the funds don't seem to worried about corn supply as demand remains very poor.  Around the noon hour we had one outfit mention the "frost" word for mid-sept.  It likely won't be the last time we hear the frost word.  It reminds me of the China trade talks.  One day we are making progress, the next day talks are over and were adding tariffs.  Beans did however rally on that frost report almost instantly.  Wheat was higher today after making multi year lows in KC.  The DOW was up over 200 points as we continue to bounce around rather violently.  Keep an eye on those corn spreads if you are looking to roll some HTA's.  I believe this may be our best opportunity. 

Well the tweet of the day from Mr. Trump pretty much sums up today's trade action.  "For all of the “geniuses” out there, many who have been in other administrations and “taken to the cleaners” by China, that want me to get together with the EU and others to go after China Trade practices remember, the EU & all treat us VERY unfairly on Trade also.  Will change!"  So, you couple that tweet with more tariffs that went into Sunday and you get a bearish market.  Corn finished the day making new lows down 8, beans unchanged, the Dow down 300 points, and crude oil down a buck.  This morning there was no frost threat, which also likely caused some of the downside in corn.  For those of you with HTA's it might be a good time to look at rolling them out.  The carry has come back within a couple cents of their widest levels.  If the corn crop is not out there like the USDA says, those spreads will likely come crashing back in.

Today was a very quiet day of trade heading into the holiday weekend.  The month of August was an ugly one for the grains.  Corn was down 31, beans were down 12, and wheat was down 36 as the August 12th USDA report put the damper on things.  Now it just comes down to whether or not we can make it to maturity and make it to the USDA's expectations.  The forecast really hasn't changed as it still looks like below normal temps for the upper Midwest.  There is no threat of frost in the first two weeks of September, but there is a lot of highs in the low 70's and upper 60's which is likely delaying maturity.  September should be an interesting month with weather being the main watch.  The next USDA report is on September 12^th.  Have a good Labor Day weekend!

"US Ag. Secretary Pledges Trump will announce a way to boost biofuel demand."  That was the headline that turned around the market today.  Couple that with position squaring heading into month end and we got ourselves a bounce.  More traders are starting to get nervous about the cool temps, others have been nervous for over a week already.  We need some heat if we think this crop is going to make it to the finish line.  GPC has their plot tour today in Murdock starting at 3:00, so feel free to join us. 

Today is another one of those days where it feels like we are stuck in a rut.  Neither the bulls or the bears have any news to move this market out of this recent range.  Weather continues to be cool, which should be offering support.  On the other hand, World demand is terrible as we are not competitive offsetting some potential yield loss due to the cool weather.  There was nothing new with China today that I heard of.  Like I said before I would expect this market to trade sideways into month end.  We likely won't have much new information until the Sept 12th USDA report where they will take ear weights into account.  Sept 14th is the full moon, which normally has the potential for the first frost, but it's too early to forecast that.  These cool temps in the 8-14 day forecast sure make a guy think about the possibility though.  This market basically boils down to how this crop finishes out and we are stuck here until proven differently.  At this point it still feels like there is no weather premium in this market.

No trade deal….trade deal….No more trade talks…...now they want to continue talks.  The saga continues…..  On Friday talks with China were done, tariffs up.  On Sunday Trump says he has reached an agreement in principle with Japan.  On Monday now Trump says China wants to make a deal, but China denies they ever said that.  It feels like we have politics saying what they need to say in order to keep the stock market "stable".  That seems to be how we are judging success.  There are too many unknowns at this point and the volatile market has only just began, so hang on.  Weather remains very cool for the next couple weeks which should be adding some premium back into this market, but so far, the market seems happy near the lows.  It feels like we are stuck here until we hear the FROST word or the combines hit the field and we realize a lower yield.  It’s simply just a matter of "time" whether this crop can make it to the finish line or not.  For those of you with basis contracts we need to be out of those positions by Thursday at the close. 

Pro Farmer pegs the corn crop at 163.3 and soybeans at 46.1 bushels per acre, with a range either side based on how this late crop finishes.  The range they gave on corn was +/- 1% and beans were +/- 2%.  Just a reminder where the USDA was on Aug 12th, corn was at 169.5 and beans at 48.5.  Time in the growing season without a frost is the biggest factor.  The reason for the lower market today was all about the trade war with China.  This morning about 6:30 am news broke that China was going to add some more tariffs.  Corn and beans reacted lower, but tried to work their way back.  Then Mr. Trump decided to tweet….and to put it plain and simple things got a little dicey.  Corn down just 3c, beans down 12, crude oil down 2 bucks, Hogs down 3 bucks, Cattle down 2 bucks, and the Dow 600 points.  Today was not a good day to stare at a market screen.  It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the tour on Sunday night, but my gut says this trade war situation is a much bigger factor.  Weather still looks well below normal in the 8-14 day forecast, which isn't helping to get this crop to maturity.

The Pro Farmer tour is finishing up today and we will have their national yield prediction tomorrow.  The corn yield they put out in my opinion will be the top potential yield as they likely won't account for how far this crop is behind.  Those ears that are still in blister stage on Aug 22nd likely won't make it to their full potential, but that will all depend on the weather into October.  The current forecast with the highs under 75 degrees for the next 2 weeks isn't doing us any favors.   The bean yield on the tour may be a touch on the low side as the bean crop is also behind and may still be setting some pods.  The next couple weeks will be crucial for the bean yield potential.  Yesterday the tour did western Iowa and those yield predictions came in similar to slightly better than last year.  Bean pod counts in W IA were 5-15% less than last year’s tour.  We will get the final Iowa numbers for the total state tonight.  Illinois corn yield came in at 171.17 bu/acre, down 11% from last year's tour.  Soybeans were at 997.68 pods in a 3x3’ plot, down 25% from last year’s tour.  We will also see what they come up with for S MN tonight. 

The Pro Farmer tour is underway.  Yesterday they came up with South Dakota corn yields averaged 154.1 bu/acre on #pftour19, down 13% from last year's tour.  Soybean pod counts come in at 833, down 19%.  Ohio corn yield samples come in at 154.4 bu/acre, down 14% from last year's tour.  Pod counts for soybeans down 39% YOY.  Maturity is going to be a major issue, so it becomes an issue of time.  Will we make it to maturity?  Tonight, we will get the Nebraska and Illinois results.  Early indications have Nebraska looking good as we all knew, but Illinois is pretty variable.  Illinois crop needs a lot of time to finish just like most of us.  Crop ratings dropped 1% from good/excellent last night on both corn and beans.  Overnight markets had corn and beans both working higher up about 5 and 7, but the day crowd was a seller once again.  3.63 Dec futures remains the target on the down side, which is now only 6 cents away. 

Corn and beans had a nice bounce today as the trade likely took some profits on a tough week of trade.  For the week corn was down 39 and beans were down 11, thanks to the USDA release of their bearish numbers on Monday's report.  Weather remains a close watch over the weekend as Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana are expecting good amounts over the weekend in those much needed areas.  Precip amounts will likely determine how we start out trade on Sunday night.  Next week all eyes will be on the pro farmer tour.  It will be interesting to see if they come anywhere close to the USDA yields.  It will also be interesting to see the variability of this crop as most areas have some good early planted crops and some late planted crops that need time.  Latest weather models do not seem concerned about an early frost, but it's still too early to be confident.  The DOW had a nice rally today up 300 points, but is still down over 400 for the week, and 1500 off the July highs.  China trade news seems worse this week rather than better. 

Today was another tough day in the markets.  Corn traded higher much of the overnight, but heavy selling showed up in all markets out of the gate this morning.  Trade talks remain at a standstill with no new talks scheduled and fear remains in the market.  Corn is now within 7 cents of the May 13th low of 3.63 Dec futures.  I still don't think we need to go there, but the money might have other ideas.  Spreads have widened back out and might be a good starting point to roll some HTA's.  Beans broke lower this morning as well on trade fears and an improved weather forecast.  The DOW was down over 800 points today.  Crude was down over 2 bucks as well.  So, it was a risk off day in almost all markets.  Rains in Iowa and Illinois over the next 7 days is the main weather watch at the moment.  Some maps are showing 2-4 inches in parts of Iowa where it is much needed. 

Yesterday at the close corn finished limit down and was implied to be trading about a nickel lower.  Well we opened the overnight session down 4, but the selling didn't stop there.  There was a gap at 3.775 Dec that nobody thought we could fill just a couple of weeks ago and today we did just that.  I would have felt better about it if we could have bounced back above that level, but we finished slightly below it.  That’s means we could be poised for a test of the 3.63 Dec futures low.  It feels like we are too cheap again with a crop that is majorly behind schedule, but fundamentals lead the way at the moment.  Weather will be key going forward as the USDA is obviously assuming perfect weather getting this crop to the finish line.  I guess time will tell on that, but even with perfect weather I think 169.5 yield is too high.  Trump announced that he was going to delay tariffs on certain products till December 15, which shocked the market.  The bean market and the DOW (up 400) reacted quickly to that news.  If you have corn HTA's you may want to be watching the spreads as they have changed rapidly over the past two days.  Dec-July is out to 28c this afternoon.

Well…..today was report day and the USDA threw us another curveball.  Corn finished the day limit down and beans finished down 12.  They pegged corn acres at 90 million vs an average guess of 88 million.  Corn yield up 3.5 bushel from the July estimate at 169.5 bpa vs an average guess of 164.9 bpa.  Corn carryout at 2.181 billion vs an average guess of 1.620.  The top end of the range of guesses was 1.900 billion, so they managed to blow that away.  Bean acres were pegged at 76.7 million vs an average guess of 81 million.  Bean yield was left unchanged from the July estimate at 48.5 bpa vs an average guess of 47.6 bpa.  Bean carryout at 755 million vs an average guess of 821 million.  Beans had a slightly friendly twist, but with corn down the limit beans struggled.  FSA PP acres were released today as well.  They had a total of 19.25 million PP acres.  11.2 million were corn acres and 4.35 million were bean acres.  The biggest problem people had with this report is 90 million planted corn plus 11.2 million pp corn implies we intended to plant 101.2 million corn acres.  Crazy right?  Here is some math for you.  Between corn, beans, and wheat last year we planted 226.1 million acres.  This year between corn, beans, and wheat we planted 212.3 million.  That’s 13.8 million difference, so I guess its possible.

Corn:

Planted acres at 90 million vs an average guess of 88 million

Yield at 169.5 vs an average guess of 164.9 bpa.

Carryout at 2.181 vs an average guess of 1.620 billion.

Beans:

Planted acres at 76.7 vs an average guess of 81 million

Yield at 48.5 vs an average guess of 47.6 bpa.

Carryout at 755 vs an average guess of 821 million.

Corn and beans worked higher this morning on the continued dry forecast in the eastern belt.  That will be a watch over the weekend as the troubled areas have a chance of rain in the next 5 days.  Monday is report day, so get those seat belts fastened.  This feels like one of the biggest reports we have had in the last 10 years.  There are way too many unknowns at this point in the year.  China talks sound like we are at a standstill as Trump mentions he is not ready to make a deal now.  It feels like we are stuck on trade until the 2020 Democratic candidate is chosen.  For the week corn was up 11 and beans were up 23.  Hurry up and wait for 11:00 AM on Monday!  If you want to have any orders working let me know.  This is going to be headline report.  Everyone is looking for ACRES….but don't forget the biggest line item on the report is the carryout.  Exports are going to struggle the way it looks.  If corn rallies too much then feed use could struggle as well.  Ethanol is a major struggle at the moment, but there is a mandate to meet so not everyone can shutdown.  Those three line items could give some relief to lower acres and lower yield.  Time will tell…....buckle in.

Another quiet day as we wait for Monday's report.  Not much else to talk about today as it is pretty much that simple.  The guesses are out for the report.  The average guess on corn acres is 88 million, yield at 164.9, and carryout at 1.620 billion bushels.  The average guess on bean acres is 81 million, yield 47.6, and carryout at 821 million.  The ranges are wide across the board so as I said before buckle your safety belts and make sure there tight.  Equity markets had a decent day considering the DOW was down 400 points this morning after some more Trump tweets, but managed to climb back near unchanged at the close of the grains.  Crude was the big loser today down over 2 bucks. 

Today was a very quiet day as these markets seem satisfied at current levels waiting for Monday's USDA report.  The goal posts on acres are being set at record wide levels as the range of guesses are about 8 million acres apart.  I don't think anyone that trades grain has ever saw this big of a range on planted acres, so get those seat belts fastened on Monday morning.  Nothing new on China trade today, which allowed the stock markets to gain back some of yesterday's massive losses up 400 points currently.  Saw a tweet today that claimed Trump was going solo on the trade war and ignoring his aids according to the Washington post.  Who knows what or what isn't true anymore!  I guess we sit tight and wait for Monday and hopefully we can keep the negative trade tweets to a minimum for a while. 

Overnight markets were down hard with corn trading 8-9 lower and beans put a low in down 14 cents.  The trade war with China gets more intense as China retaliates back at Trumps tariff announcement last week.  The stock market took the biggest beating with the DOW down over 800 points.  By 10:00 AM the grain markets battled all the way back and turned into green figures.  A hit to the stock market should be "good" for the grains as that money flow needs to go somewhere, so why not corn?  Next Monday is the day we have been waiting for the report.  Informa was out today with their guess.  They pegged corn at 90.7 million planted corn acres.  Harvested acres at 82.6 million, which is 91% of what got planted.  They have yield at 167.8 bpa.  Those acres still seem a bit on the high side to me.  On the bean acres they were at 79.27 million harvested.  Bean yield at 48.2 bpa.  Also, this morning saw a Farm Futures survey of more than 1,150 growers coming in at 167.2 and 48.4 bpa.  The BIG difference was they had corn acres at 83.5 million and bean acres at 79.6 million.  This is a perfect example of the big range of guesses for acres on this report.

The grain markets started out higher this morning for a couple seconds, but then selling crowd returned again today.  Dec corn traded down to 4.05 early in the day, which is the 61% retracement level from the highs.  That level felt like it was going to hold until the tweet happened.  Mr. Trump said "the U.S. will start, on September 1st, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the remaining 300 Billion dollars of goods and products coming from China into our Country. This does not include the 250 Billion dollars already Tariffed at 25%.”  Corn then traded down as much as 12 cents, beans traded more than 20 lower, and the DOW dropped 500 points from its highs of the day in a matter of minutes.  That’s the type of environment we are in and I will say again the volatility has only just begun.  This move lower still doesn't feel right, but that’s just my opinion.  Do we trade down to fill the 3.775 to 3.80 Dec gap?  I don't think so, but it is being talked about.  The August 12th report cannot come soon enough at this point.

All I can say today is….WOW….  This market just doesn't seem right to many of us.  I have said it before, this market can remain irrational much longer than you or I can remain solvent.  This feels like that type of day.  The longs are getting nervous and getting out of positions as margin calls become too much.  This is usually a sign of a bottom, but I am not ready to bet on anything at this point.  I am crossing my fingers that this is just a function of month end.  There are just too many unknowns that I am not even sure this market has a clue what is going on anymore.  It all comes down to what the USDA gives us on the 12th of August, so I guess we wait.  I just hope this number makes a little more sense, so we can have a little better understanding.  Ultimately, we won't know until the crop is in the bin as we need perfect weather through September. 

Last night corn ratings were up 1% good/excellent at 58% and beans were unchanged at 54% good/excellent.  Both crops continue to be well behind pace in all aspects.  Corn managed to finally fill the Dec 4.20 gap today and put in a low of 4.1975.  The fact that we closed above 4.20 should be good news for the bulls.  The cause for the lower trade today was likely due to another Trump tweet.  Trump said "China is doing very badly, worst year in 27 - was supposed to start buying our agricultural product now - no signs that they are doing so. That is the problem with China, they just don’t come through."  Hu Xijin, then lashed back and said "whenever it's time to negotiate, the US side comes up with the trick of piling pressure."  So, in layman terms both sides believe they have the upper hand in negotiations, which is not a good formula for compromise.  Somebody has to be wrong in order to come up with a solution.  We should be seeing estimates for the August report in the coming days.  I am looking for a small bounce into Month end tomorrow after filling the gap.

Talks resume today in China, which might be giving the market a feeling of optimism.  Overnight markets started lower, but quickly bounced higher once we filled the September corn gap.  The December corn gap is still open at 4.20.  Maybe filling the September gap was sufficient for now?  Some areas in the US are starting to dry out, but not us as we got plenty of rain over the weekend, 2 inches here Saturday.  The forecast is for below normal temps, which is good for pollination, but this crop still needs some heat to catch up.  Ethanol markets continue to lead the way on bids as track values have backed off for now.  My gut tells me that will come bouncing back as grain movement is minimal.  Everyone is waiting for the all-important August 12th report.  What will they ultimately come up with for acres?  My gut still says 87-88 million corn.  Time will tell.  Bean export inspections were impressive this morning at 37.9 million bushels.  China exports should be starting to tale off as we move into August from what I hear.  Will they buy more good faith tariff free beans after these talks?  Feds are talking about an interest rate cut, so we will have to see if that happens.

I might as well start out the same way as I did yesterday since that is about all we can focus on.  Corn continues to gravitate towards the 4.20 December gap closing within 4 cents today.  Weather remains non-threatening as we start to tassel more corn everyday now.  The talk of how the USDA is going to show PP acres on the next report remains the biggest question mark.  Too bad we have to wait another 2 weeks to get that answered.  Beans traded higher much of the day on more China "hopes" that they will back in the market to make more good faith purchases.  If we have to rely on good faith purchases that is not a good thing, but I guess business is business at this point.  Other news today was very quiet as the farmer remains on the sideline until the August report.  It still feels like corn is too cheap to me, but the market needs something fresh to trade.  The market still knows there is a problem, but feels like it is obviously figured in.  I am not convinced this is over yet, but with that being said the crop is better today than it was week ago.  We just need a lot of time and good weather to finish this crop out to maturity.

Corn continues to gravitate towards the 4.20 Dec gap.  I know I keep mentioning that, but it feels like it's going to be inevitable at this point.  Beans broke through support at the close and finished a tick under the 9.00 level on the Nov futures.  There is no inclination of a weather scare and demand remains slow, which is keeping the pressure on the grains.  The August report is still too far away, so we have nothing new to feed the bulls.  Spreads in corn are now widening back out as the market acts like we don't have a problem.  Farmer movement is non-existent and will stay that way until we either get back to the highs or the August report disappoints the trade.  This report will be the deciding factor and could be very volatile; not like this market needs any help in the volatility department.  The excitement has only just begun I am afraid.  I am starting to hear more rumors of ethanol plants being shut down or slowing down.  It's really just a matter of time in certain areas.  MFP payments were announced today by county and range from $15-$150.   Swift county got listed at $60.  Chippewa county got listed at $61.  It sounds like PP acres planted to cover crop will receive $15 per acre. 

Corn and beans were up 5-7 cents on the overnight and it felt like we were going to have a bounce today.  Well….that didn't last long as corn only traded up 5 for a matter of seconds and eventually worked its way back into red figures for the day.  $4.20 Dec still seems to be a magnet as we continue to try and fill that gap.  We traded up against the 50 day moving average this morning at 4.365 Dec before breaking back.  This range continues to be a comfort zone as there are just too many unknowns.  There is definitely some China chatter going on as talks are to resume next week.  There was some talk of a bean purchase again, but nothing confirmed.  There is also talks of another round of 2-6 mmt to China, but I have heard that before and it never happened. On an interesting note there was a cancellation of 100,000 tons of old crop beans by unknown.  I will say however the PNW bean bid has perked up slightly and there are a few exporters calling and looking for bean values, which makes me think it's a real possibility.  I think they are searching for a number they dare trade with China because the beans in the country are not going to be easy to buy.  There is very little new crop ownership in the commercials hands this year and at these levels that is not going to change anytime soon.

Overnight markets started slightly higher due to the drop of 1% in the corn good/excellent ratings.  The silking number at 35% likely also supported the market, but we are well aware the crop is behind.  Expert crop scout Cordonieer has corn acres at 85.3 million and yield at 160 bpa.  He has beans at 82 million acres and a yield at 45 bpa.  That number would be friendly for corn and is basically the number the market wants to believe.  The question is whether the USDA will show us something that friendly.  My gut feeling is we get something closer to 88 million on August 12th, which might have a neutral reaction.  Any way you look at it there is a massive number of unknowns at this point.  Normally in mid-July we have a good handle on pollination, but this year the majority of the corn will be pollinating late July or early August.  Weather seems to have improved, which is holding the market at the low end of the range.  We got within 4 cents of the 4.20 Dec gap, but once again bounced before we could fill it.  It all comes down to the August 12th acres, which is still 14 trading days away.  It sounds like a phone call with China has led to another visit if that’s any consolation.

Up, Down, Up, Down as the whipsaw actions continues within this trading range.  Dec corn needs to fill the gap at 4.20 to satisfy the trade, so maybe we can do it on this move.  The sentiment of most traders remains bullish on corn, but the futures are starting to get this crowd a bit nervous to say the least.  Today is the last day to certify planted acres, so some of the final PP numbers will start to leak very soon.  Maybe this will get the market to perk up, but ultimately, we are stuck waiting for the August 12th report.  Corn conditions were posted today down 1% at 57% good/excellent.  35% of the crop is silking vs last year at 78% and 66% average.  Bean ratings were left unchanged at 54% good/excellent.  40% of the crop is blooming vs 76% a year ago and 66% average.  7% of the bean crop is setting pods vs 41% a year ago and 28% average.  Nothing surprising here as we know were well behind.  Some chatter of early frost talks, but that’s just chatter as it's only July 22nd.  There was no China chatter today after Friday's rumors and the bean market reacted giving most of the gains back.  Lets hope for turn-around Tuesday.

Markets traded higher on short covering due to an uncertain long-range Central US weather forecast heading into the weekend.  Soybeans are the upside leader as rumors abound regarding US/China trade talks.  The theory is that if Trump decides to threaten to add more tariffs it will cause China to buy more ag commodities in good faith to delay the additional tariffs.  Maybe we are just a tweet away?  There were a few rumors that they actually bought a round of N/C beans today, but we will have to see if that gets confirmed.  I still think we continue to trade these ranges heading into the August report as we are hopeful to get a much clearer picture from the USDA.  A dime move seems to be nothing anymore as we continue the volatile trade.  This is not a market for the weak stomach as there are just too many unknowns.

USDA's Risk Management Agency announced this morning that as of early July registered PP acres were 7-8 million corn and 2-3 million beans.  That’s no surprise and the market today didn't seem to bat an eye.  At the coffee break it felt like this selling spree was coming to an end and we were going to try and battle back, but as the day wore on someone was a seller once again.  Ethanol production was friendly today, but we will have to see how long they can continue to pay big premiums for corn in the eastern belt.  Tomorrow morning we will have export sales.  This market feels stuck here and is waiting for some fresh news to trade.  That may not come until the August report on the 12th.  Not much change in the weather forecast today.

Overnight markets started higher on a hot and dry forecast.   Corn traded higher until about 7 am as Wall Street selling took over and we lost all of our gains from Friday.  There was a little relief in the 8-14 forecast this afternoon, which looked to be the main reason for the sell off today.  The heat will benefit a lot of the crop that was behind, but will also be hard on the small percentage of the crop that was ahead of the curve and was ready to pollinate this week.  The forecast in Omaha over the next 5 days has temps of 91, 99, 101, 101 and 98.  Corn ratings were up 1% good excellent at 58%.  Bean ratings were up 1% at 54% good excellent.  No surprises there.  Corn is at 17% silking vs a 42% average.  Beans blooming are at 22% vs 49% average.  It sounds like there is going to be some talks between the US and China over the phone this week.  Other than that the technical traders remain in charge of the market as there just isn't enough food for the bulls at this time. 

Corn had another strong day today after the USDA threw a 2 billion bushel carryout at us yesterday.  It seems today is all about the heat dome forming and it looks like it could last a while.  The Sunday night forecast will likely be important to see whether or not we can hold these gains.  It didn't feel like a day we should be up this much, but it looked to be an all-out buying day on wall street.  Yesterday I mentioned to you that nobody believed the planted acres for corn.  Well, that changed last night as one company went on a tour and said the acres are much closer than they want to believe.  A lot of it is way behind and looks poor but the acres may be there.  If that is the case then the farmer looked at 4.60 futures and figured they would take the chance of planting late for the harvest price option.  Now it is just a matter of getting enough time without a frost and good growing weather to push this crop along.  This same group did say that production will go down because the crop didn't look good. Their biggest concern was how far the bean crop was behind, which also could have a huge impact.  This volatility is far from over.

The WASDE group decided to stick with the USDA on acres with corn at 91.7 million and beans at 80 million.  The trade however still doesn't believe the corn acres and managed to blow it off trading up 9 on the day.  They left the corn yield alone at 166 bpa.  They bumped the carryout up to an unbelievable 2.010 billion.  So, the circus continues and no one has a clue where we should be.  As I said before the market knows we have a problem, but we don't know what for sure and how big of an issue it is.  The bean acres seem reasonable and the market is ready to accept 80 million acres of beans.  They lowered the yield a bushel to 48.5 bpa, which was right at the average guess.  The carryout they printed was 795 million, which was also very close to the average guess.  Just a reminder the acre certification needs to be done by the 22nd of July, so we should have a very good idea of just how many PP acres we have for the August report.  Hopefully we can start to paint a better picture of this situation in August.  My gut still tells me it takes longer to sort this out, but hopefully we can at least get to some believable figures that we can trade more than 30 seconds after a USDA report.

Overnight markets started out quiet as crop conditions had corn up 1% good to excellent at 57% and beans down 1% at 53%.  The trade was expecting slight improvements on both.  The more important stat from yesterday might be just how far this crop is behind.  98% of the corn is emerged and only 8% of the corn is silked.  On average Illinois is typically 41% silked at this time and this year they are 4%.  Every major corn state is in the same boat.  Beans were 96% planted, 90% emerged, and 10% blooming.  Indiana is currently at 1% blooming, Illinois is at 2% blooming, vs an average in the lows 30's for each state.  90% nationwide emergence compares to an average of 98% for this time of year.  Someone said today that the markets know we have problem, we just don’t what exactly or how major at this point. Today’s trade feels like we are just setting up for the report as the USDA gave us bearish corn acres and bullish bean acres on the June 28^th report.  Thoughts remain that they will use those acres on Thursday's WASDE report.  It’s anyone’s guess, but any way you look at it the August report will be much more telling.

Things were quiet on the news front over the weekend.  Sunday markets gapped higher on some ridging over the central US in the next couple weeks.  Hot and dry weather nearby we said would be a good thing to get this crop caught up, but if it continues for an extended period of time that won't be good.  There was nothing new on China talks over the weekend after last week they mentioned they may make some good faith purchases.  We have heard that before many times.  Demand remains slow and the US remains uncompetitive on exports.  Thursday's report will be the key as the big question waits to be answered.  What will they do with acres?  Will they use the June 28th numbers or lower it slightly as PP acres are being reported?  That question will be the biggest factor in deciding what type of carryout they show.  I think they will leave their yield around 165-166 bpa as it is too early to decide that yet.  The average guess for this report has the corn carryout at 1.692 billion and beans at 812 million.  I think the August report will be more important once the re-survey is complete.  An updated report on crop condition ratings will be out this afternoon at 3:00.  The trade is looking for a slight improvement.

Corn caught some major buying today as the chart held support and rallied back just a half cent short of filling the gap of 4.20 Dec.  It is interesting that we were able to do it on a short day of trade heading into a holiday.  The financial markets are also souring to new highs heading into the holiday.  The grain markets will be open from 8:30 am - 1:20 pm on Friday.  Next week’s WASDE report will be on Thursday.  It sounds like they will base their acres off the USDA's numbers, but I wouldn't be surprised if they figure some PP acres in there.  Last report they used 89.8 million acres, so my guess is they come in less than that.  Hopefully it makes a little more sense than the USDA numbers.  Time will tell.  Beans followed corn today as is the normal trend as of late.  Talks with China are said to have resumed, but that’s nothing new.  No timeline of a deal has been given, so the saga continues.  Have a good 4th of July! 

Weather continues to improve and the markets react.  Beans led the way lower today down a dime as corn tried to battle back finishing up 3 on the day.  Wheat also took a hit as early harvest yields and quality sound impressive.  Everyone is questioning why beans are breaking off a bullish report on Friday.  It might be just as simple as corn was responsible for the rally and beans were the follower.  Now that corn has broken 50 cents off the highs, beans are starting to feel the pressure as well.  There continues to be a number of unknowns in these markets and until final acres get a better definition we may be stuck here for a while.  Corn got close to filling the gap again today, but still couldn't quite fill it entirely before we bounced.  4.20 Dec remains the downside objective on this move.  Tomorrow the grain markets close at noon for the 4th of July holiday.  They will not open back up until Friday at 8:30 am for a short trading session.  Volumes will continue to be light the balance of the week.  Sunday night's weather and Monday's crop conditions will decide the direction of trade.

The grain markets continued to trade lower off of Friday's USDA corn acre surprise.  Everyone is still trying to put things together and figure out what it all means as disbelief continues.  As many of us don't believe the 91.7 million corn acres, were stuck trading it as the computers say to sell.  4.20 Dec looks to be the objective as we closed within 2 cents.  With a low volume holiday week and the computers hitting the sell button, this could very well be our buying opportunity.  I am convinced this market will stay friendly the balance of the summer, but this USDA report just put a wrinkle in our rally.  The bulls were not given the food we needed.  Another thing we need to remember is the corn stocks were actually friendly, so if the acres get corrected, we could get back on track.  We have another report next Thursday so it will be interesting to see what acres number they use.  Beans had a friendly report on Friday and tried to trade positive overnight and this morning, but couldn't handle the selling pressure today.  Look for the volatility to continue as this acre situation plays itself out. 

Not quite what I had in mind as the USDA shocks us with a planted corn acreage amount of 91.7 million acres.  That number seems a bit unreasonable to everyone in the trade as the average guess was at 86.7 million.  Either way we were stuck trading that acres number as corn traded limit down for about an hour.  Now the USDA says they are going to resurvey 14 states and have that info for us on the August 12^th report if any adjustments are needed.  I am going to take a shot in the dark and say acres will be lower than 91.7 million on that report (they better be!).  Corn stocks were lower than expected at 5.202 billion bushels.  The average guess was at 5.332 billion.  Bean acres were much lower than expected at 80 million acres.  The average guess was 84.35 million.  Bean stocks were at 1.79 billion vs an average guess of 1.86.  The only argument on this report that makes sense today, is if we initially planned to plant 96-97 million acres of corn rather than the 92.7 on the march planting intentions report.  That would make the 80 million bean acres seem legit in that scenario as well.  Just a thought…

Improving weather seems to be driving the bus again today as the markets take another step back.  Yesterday the USDA announced that silage was a form of cover crop that would be allowed on PP acres.  That could be an important detail down the road and could add a few acres of harvested corn.  Trade talks with China still don't sound positive as Trump rolls out a plan B with China, which is to reduce business with China.  That doesn't sound good to me as the uncertainty continues.  The trade feels like we are stuck in a rut waiting for the Friday's USDA report.  Basis pricing against the July seems to be weakening out the spreads as July positions need to be cleared up by tomorrow at the close. 

The grain markets gapped higher and traded higher the entire overnight session before turning around at 9:15 am.  The forecast of warmer and dryer weather likely caused some selling as thoughts are conditions might improve next week.  Friday is the USDA report, which should decide which way we trade from here.  First notice day is Friday, so those of you with basis contracts need to be priced or rolled by Thursday's close in the markets.  Please call me for details.  Not much other information in the markets today.  Friday is the key day as we pile a USDA report, First Notice Day, and Month End on top of each other.

Corn, beans, and wheat all traded higher today as more rain fell across much of the corn belt this weekend.  Some areas of Missouri and Illinois saw 3+ inches.  Planting progress tonight had corn at 96% planted as most have now given up on corn planting, expectations were 96%.  Bean progress was listed at 85% planted vs an average guess of 88% planted.  Some have also likely given up on bean planting at this point.  Remember this percent planted is as of this week’s intentions, which nobody knows what that means exactly.  Crop conditions had corn at 56% good/excellent vs an average guess of 59%.  Beans were listed at 54% good/excellent vs an average guess of 59%.  There was also a lot of backlash that they had Illinois at 42% good/excellent on soybeans, as most feel that is even too high.  I would look for a higher start tonight due to lower than expected conditions.  Weather looks warmer and dryer over the next could weeks, which could keep a lid on the markets for now.  Friday's report will be important as the acres likely trend lower.

The rally feels like it has stalled out for bit as we await some fresh news.  With that being said I don't think it is over by any means.  Next Friday we will get the updated June 1 stocks and also a new guess at planted acres.  The USDA used 89.8 million acres on their June crop report estimate, but some feel this report could show us about 85 million.  If that happens, assuming the yield of 165 as they used in June, the carryout should be 1.3 - 1.5 billion.  That is assuming we will see some type of a cut in exports.  In June the USDA had an implied carryout of 1.675 billion.  We have a long way to go in order to determine the final yield.  The volatility has just begun as we trade weather all summer long.  On the bean side I don’t expect much change in acres on this report.  We should be somewhere around 85 million.  I will argue the bean yield may be too high at 49.5, which they used on the June report.  So with that we may have a slight drop in carryout from the 1.045 billion.  I have seen a guess as low as 820 million, but I am not near that low.  Final planted acres will have to be lower to achieve that low of a carryout. 

The grain markets rebounded today gaining back most of yesterday's losses.  Nothing has really changed in the past couple days as we await next Friday's report.  It feels like we are just having a lack of news at the moment to keep the bull from keeping the pedal down.  Rains overnight in the I states, along with Ohio keep the fear alive that we are still losing acres.  Some areas had 3+ inches of rain overnight.  The next rain system is already setting up, so there won't be any planting progress the balance of the week.  Tomorrow July options expire as the 4.50 July future area seems like a magnet for that.  There are a lot of basis contracts out here that need to be priced or rolled by June 26th.  If you are one of those people please get ahold of me and let me know what your plan is. 

Yesterday's planting progress was explained as follows..."it represents the portion of the crop that is planted relative to the intentions as of that week, not as of the March intentions."  So, yesterday we mentioned at 92% planted there were about 7.1 million acres left to plant.  Today, we are interpreting it as 92% planted of the 89 million acres the USDA gave us last week.  That means we could be down 10 million acres or more from the March planting intentions.  So why are we down 6 cents today?  My answer is, because we cannot go straight up every day.  The problem is this might not shake itself out until mid-August when we get a better handle on acres.  That means we could trade sideways or slightly higher for a while until we get a better feel for Prevent Plant acres.  Also catching a lot of headlines today is a yield guess by Iowa State University in which they came up with 135 bpa national yield.  That is much lower than anyone else is posting, but the data they used backs it up.  There is also a scientific study going around on yield drag vs planting date and there you could argue yields in the 140's.  I guess no matter how you look at things at this point we are going to be in for a wild ride the rest of the year.

Corn and beans gapped higher once again Sunday night on the wet weather forecast as weekend rains were as predicted.  The 7 day forecast looks wetter in the eastern corn belt, which implies we could be done planting at any time.  Will this week’s planting progress be bullish at 3:00 this afternoon?  Estimates have corn at 92% planted, which would mean we have slightly over 7 million unplanted corn acres.  That’s friendly in my book and should leave the bulls in control.  Anything less than 92% should be very friendly.  The estimate on bean acres planted is 79%, which should also be friendly looking at the forecast.  It is hard to be too friendly beans with the carryout, but things are starting to swing friendly if we leave a bunch of acres unplanted.  The bulls are driving the bus.  The question everyone is asking is, "how high can we go in corn"?  Right now, that is anyone's guess as we have never seen anything like this happen.  We have never seen this many possible Prevent Plant acres.  The volatility is going to last through the summer as we continue to trade weather.  Yield will be more important than ever with this many unplanted acres.  I will put out an update later with progress and conditions.

Corn charges higher today as the weather forecast for the eastern belt looks even wetter in the next 7 days.  If the forecast holds true this Monday's planting progress maybe the final numbers as planting may done for the year.  Some progress has been made this week, but how much?  Most guys in the east were still working on corn last week, so now the question is, how many beans are left to plant, becomes very important.  This #NoPlant19 problem is for real.  This will be a year we talk about for a long time.  The spreads continue to tell story in corn.  Earlier this week the July `19 / Dec `19 spread was trading 19 cents.  We finished the week at 10 cents.  Corn in the east is trading at record basis levels as I heard somewhere in Indiana traded +45 July basis for corn.  The market on Monday was telling us to carry the corn and now the market is shifting telling us to sell the corn.  For those of you with Dec `19 HTA's on the books the Dec `19 / March `20 spread is now only paying up 4 cents.  That was out to 15 cents in the end of April.  Dec `19 / July `20 is trading at 5 cents, that traded out to 32 cents in May.   These carries are telling us how serious of a problem the market believes we have coming.  These carries don’t even the cost of interest already. The basis is going to have to do the work as the possibility of an inverse gets closer to a reality.

After a disappointing close yesterday, today was the day we have been waiting for. July corn leads the way higher as we manage to settle corn above the old highs.  That is a good sign we are going to continue this rally.  The question on almost every phone call I have had today is what should I be doing?  The answer is fairly simple in my opinion.  A month ago we would have loved to have a shot at 4.00 cash corn, so this is a dream come true.  You’re not going to get hurt by selling into this rally a little at a time.  Can we go higher?  The answer to that is yes.  My question back is, does $4.00 corn pay the bills?  Would have you sold it a month ago if I could have got you $4.00 corn?  Picking the high is almost impossible, so that is bad strategy.  Start selling in small increments and if $4.00 is your worst sale we should end up with a really good average.  If you want to sell and buy a call against the sale to leave the top side open, that is an option as well.  Give me a call and we can talk about that option.  With that being said it feels like we are due for a test to $4.85 Dec, but it could take until mid-July.  Beans were up another dime today as we are now 6 cents away from the June highs.  That remains the target for now.

Yesterday we get a bearish USDA bean report with a carryout of 1.045 billion bushel.  Today we get a wetter weather forecast in the eastern corn belt and all of a sudden we are worried about getting beans in the ground, so beans trade up 20 cents.  Now all of a sudden we are bullish beans….be careful.  This might be a gift for those of you with old crop beans left to sell.  We are 16 cents off the recent highs of 8.94 July, so let’s use that as the next target.  Just keep in mind there is still a gap to fill about 50 cents below the market.  Beans feel like a double-edged sword at the moment with weather and supply pulling us in two separate directions.  Corn was the weak link today after a bullish report we could only muster 2 cents.  It felt like today was the day to make new highs with corn up 6 early, but someone was there to sell it once again.  There was some new crop moving today as we hit $4.00 cash again.  The question remains, what kind of news is it going to take to make new highs, because it feels like we should have done that already. 

Last night’s tally had corn 83% planted, which means there is about 16 million corn acres left to plant.  Illinois leads the way with 3 million unplanted.  Followed by SD at 2.2 million, IN at 1.8 million, Ohio at 1.75 million, IA at 950k, WI at 890k and 870k in Michigan.  If you want to look at it by region there is 5.9 million to be planted in the Western Corn Belt and 8.5 million to be planted in the Eastern Corn Belt.  The USDA decided to drop a surprise today dropping yield down to 166 on corn vs a 172.4 avg guess.  At the time of the report corn was down 6 cents, but almost instantly traded double digits higher once the report was released.  They have corn production at 13.68 billion, which implies planted acres at 89.8 million; harvested acres at 82.4 million.  89.8 million in my opinion is going to be almost impossible to achieve.  Cordonieer puts US planted acres eventually at 86.3million, yield of 165bpa.  I think that is better guess, but we will not see that until down the road.  That would imply about a 1 billion carryout instead of the 1.675 billion they gave us today.  The USDA pegged bean yield at 49.5 vs an average guess of 49.0.  Production at 4.15 billion bushels.  A carryout of…wait for it….1.045 billion.  We finally printed over a 1 billion bushel carryout.  We were due for that!

News broke over the weekend that the Mexico tariffs were avoided, which was excellent news.  Overall it was a quiet day of trading in the grain markets as we await this afternoons planting progress report along with the first corn crop conditions.  Corn was lower much of the overnight and the day trade as a lot of progress has been made in Illinois and Indiana according to several reports.  The average guess for planting progress tonight has corn at 83% planted.  Beans are guessed to be 56% planted vs 88% on the 5 year average.  Crop conditions will be poor on the initial ratings as the average guess is around 54% Good/Excellent.  The past 5 year average is 73.2%.  Tomorrow is the June USDA report at 11:00 am.  I will send out an update once the 3:00 report is released.

The markets settled back a bit again today heading into the weekend as most areas are able to give it a go with planting for a couple more days.  Mexico tariffs go into effect on Monday if no deal is struck.  President Trump said today “there is a good chance” the US will make a deal with Mexico to avoid the proposed 5% tariffs.  Trump also said If we are able to make the deal with Mexico, & there is a good chance that we will, they will begin purchasing Farm & Agricultural products at very high levels, starting immediately.  When have we heard that before?  That statement seems to get thrown around like candy in a parade lately.  On Monday we will have Planting Progress released at 3:00.  Corn is estimated to show 81% and beans are estimated 58%.  Crop conditions will also be released on Monday in that report and many are guessing corn at 60-65% good excellent.  If true that would near a record low.  Then the USDA report is on Tuesday.  The Sunday night forecast will be important once again as well.  That should set up for couple wild days.

Yesterday I mentioned that it felt like we were ready to have a little "shake of the tree" to see if we have any weak longs in the market.  Today we got just that.  Margin calls do funny things and puts the pressure on traders to make tough decisions.  Dollars can swing in a hurry with this type of volatility, so be careful.  The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.  Nothing is a guarantee in this market, especially with as many unknowns as we have at this point.  We are at the slowest planting pace in history and likely to have the lowest initial crop ratings when they get announced for the first time Monday at 3:00 PM as well.  That's all bullish, but don't forget we also have trade with Mexico and China in doubt and any single tweet can move the market at any time.  It feels like we need some USDA confirmations to get the funds excited.  The next WASDE report is Tuesday, June 11th at 11:00.  Since 1993 we have only lost corn acres from the May to the June WASDE 4 times, and the biggest drop was 2 million acres.  So, don't expect the USDA to drop corn acres by 5-7 million this go around.  2-3 million would be a better estimate.  June 28^th is the more important stocks and acres report.  Stocks likely bearish, Acres are anyone’s guess.

Finishing up a penny in corn today after being shown planting progress at 67% yesterday is not what I expected to see.  Overnight markets had corn up 12 and beans up 15 at their highs.  To only finish up a penny on corn and 3 cents on beans is a major disappointment.  It feels like we may be ready for a shake of the tree to see if we have any weak longs?  Is it time for setback, before we can continue higher?  Dec corn failed to put in a new high as 4.54 Dec remains resistance.  Nov beans did manage to put in a new high for the move before breaking back.  The weather forecast looks very similar to yesterday.  The only difference is the heavier totals in Illinois and Indiana moved slightly south.  It feels at this point in the year, it is going be harder to break out higher than we thought.  The funds are now long corn after being at record shorts early last month.  Are they going to want to jump on the train and swing their position to a large long position?  Or is it just too early as their still seems to be a lot of unknowns?  Producer selling has come to a halt as we wait and see how the crop we planted in marginal conditions looks in the early stages.  I am hearing some private estimates dropping the national corn yield to 165-170 bpa.  Corn carryouts ranging from 1.0 to 1.4.  Time will tell, but it doesn't feel like 4.50 Dec futures is high enough as more risk premium is needed in my opinion.

Overnight markets started out higher as the #noplant 19 rally continues.  Weekend weather was better than expected and it looks like we have a small window in much of the belt.  Wednesday morning that will change in the southern parts of Illinois, S. Indiana, and Missouri as they are talking heavy rains over the next 5 days.  Wheat was the leader today as Missouri, Kansas, and Oklahoma continue to see areas flood and there is little relief in sight for the next 10 days.  Some of those areas are talking another 2-5 inches of rain this week.  The Planting Progress report will be out at 3:00 today and that will decide what direction we go from here.  Estimates are 68-71% on corn and 38%-42% on beans.  I will take the lower end of the ranges for my guess.  I will add an update once the numbers are released. 

Trump tweets overnight and puts a little fear in the market.  "On June 10th, the United States will impose a 5% Tariff on all goods coming into our Country from Mexico, until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP," Trump wrote on Twitter. "The Tariff will gradually increase until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied ... at which time the Tariffs will be removed. Details from the White House to follow."  Like I told one customer today, it is easier to trade a weather market than it is to trade politics because at least we can predict the weather.  Without that tweet we would have likely continued higher today, but instead we saw some profit taking into month end.  For the week corn was up 23 and beans were up 48.  For the month corn was up 65 and beans were up 23.  Hang on for the ride as I mentioned before because the volatility has just begun.  It is going to be a wild summer as we get into emergence and crop condition ratings once this planting situation is under wraps.  Have a good weekend and hopefully we can get some field work done.  Be safe.

After yesterday's minor correction in the corn market it didn’t take long for the rally to get back on track and make a new high close.  We traded within 2 cents of Tuesday night’s highs.  Farmer selling has continued to slow down as the bull tone gets stronger.  Hearing more and more talk of prevent plant acres, but it seems fairly mixed.  If you put 20 guys in a room, 10 guys are going to go PP on corn and the other 10 are going to plant past the deadline at least up to a week.  The futures rally has sparked more interest and makes it a little more intriguing.  How high do we need to go to entice more people to plant past the deadline?  We’re working on that.  Beans continued the march higher today as well as we get within 3 cents of Tuesday night’s highs.  Spec short covering seems to be theme.  I think beans deserve a look as the bean acres have a much better chance of getting planted. It’s going to be a wild ride as volatility is going to remain high.  Fasten those seatbelts.

Grains continues the run higher overnight as corn traded 18 cents higher and beans traded 36 cent higher at their highs.  By the coffee break everything seemed to take a breather as corn was up 11 and beans were up 25.  Then for whatever reason selling hit the corn market and we traded 7 cents lower at one point.  The saying goes…Even in a rally we can't finish higher everyday.  A minor setback is a healthy correction.  It still doesn't make sense that beans needed to lead the way higher today as we talk about switching some acres and delayed corn planting.  Yes, beans are delayed as well, but there is still time to get them in the ground compared to corn.  It might just pearly be the funds covering some of their shorts as they just did in the corn market.  Noon weather maps look similar, but rain totals might be a touch lower.  Lets assume this is just a healthy correction and we will continue our march higher in corn for now. 

Corn and beans both spiked higher overnight after the 3 day weekend and once again finished at the highs of the day.  Continued wet weather is to blame as weekend rains were heavy and widespread.  The 6-10 day forecast continues to look wet over much of the "I" states.  Things look more "normal" in the 8-14 day, but even normal rains at this point are likely too much.   It seems as though we have not put enough weather premium in these markets yet.  There is one thing to keep an eye on however….I heard rumor today that as many as 8 cargoes of corn have trades into the SE United States out of South America for summer shipment.  That’s not bullish old crop as we have plenty of old crop stocks on hand.  In a market like this the objective is to limit demand and incentivize the farmer to plant corn in less than ideal conditions.  So how high do we need to go to do that?  Planting progress was out at 3:00 today.  Corn is estimated at 58% complete.  The range of guesses was 60-63% vs 91% 5 year average.  Bean progress is estimated at 29% complete.  The range of guesses is 30-33% vs a 5 year average of 66%.  I would expect a stronger start again tonight as this planting progress report was more food for the bulls.

Overnight markets started stronger and eventually made new highs today ahead of the three day weekend.  Everyone is still trying to iron out the details of the MFP program announced yesterday.  Yesterday it had a very bearish tone, but today it seems a little less bearish.  Weather remains the driver as parts of Iowa got 2.5" of rain last night.  With no markets on Monday it will be interesting to see how we react when the markets open on Monday night.  The 6-10 day forecast Monday will be the driving factor.  The planting progress report will be released on Tuesday at 3:00 PM.  The estimates I have seen are 55-65% planted.  I am leaning towards the under 60% area as not much has happened this week.  At 62% that would leave 35 million acres of corn left to plant as of May 26th. 

Overnight markets had corn lower as much as 7 cents, but as soon as the market reopened at 8:30 we instantly moved corn to unchanged.  Beans recovered some of yesterday's losses after the news of the Trump Trade Package seemed to change slightly after the markets closed.  Supposedly they are going to handle the payments in a manner that will not swing acres or promote more bean acres.  I guess we will find out as the details are released, but personally I am not sure how it won't convince anyone to plant more beans.  Overnight rains were widespread once again as the pattern continues.  Hearing reports of 1-2 inches throughout much of SD, MN, IA, IL, and IN overnight.  Planting progress will be very limited this week as little to nothing has been done this week.  With the Holiday on Monday, planting progress numbers will not be released until Tuesday afternoon.   Farmer movement was minimal today as the bullish tone spread.  It's hard not to be a little friendly grain futures with the weather.

Yesterday's planting progress of 49% corn and 19% beans allowed the markets to gap higher again last night.  July corn traded up to 3.99 futures and Dec corn traded up to 4.13 futures.  Both of those levels are within a penny of stiff resistance.  If we can break though that level we have a chance to achieve the contract high of 4.25 Dec futures.  New crop corn sales picked up today and old crop sales actually were a little lighter.  We are seeing basis take another hit today as the market is getting overwhelmed on the front end.  If we continue higher that trend will continue as well.  Beans had an interesting day as we were trading 10-15 higher much of the day until Bloomberg released a wire of Trumps new Trade Aid Program.  Full details will be released as early as Thursday this week.  Rumors are payments worth $2.00 on soybeans, 63 cents on wheat, and 4 cents on corn.  Early thoughts are that this will incentivize more bean acres, which pulled the rug out of the bean rally.  Politics and weather continue to drive the bus. 

Corn continued its bounce higher today as corn reached my 3.90 resistance level on the July futures and also 4.05 on the Dec futures.  If we can break through this level of resistance, I am looking for another dime higher in the near term.  The bullish sentiment seems to be very contagious at the moment.  I am hearing more Prevent Plant comments locally.  Not just from producers, but also seed salesman.  It seems like a widespread issue throughout the corn belt.  How many will switch acres to beans?  How many already have the fertilizer on for corn and will do anything possible to get those acres planted?  For those acres without fertilizer on the decision might be a bit easier.  The corn:bean ratio is as low as it has been since 2012 as we try and entice as many corn acres as possible.  Do we lose 2 million corn acres or do we lose 5 million?  Time will tell, but we definitely have a serious issue on our hands.  Just keep in mind that a price rally makes us less competitive on exports, which we were already not competitive.  The price rally might also cause ethanol plants to slow or stop grinding as margins become more negative.  Those factors will like offset part of the loss of production.  Planting progress came out this afternoon and corn was at 49% nationwide.  Illinois made it to 24% planted, Indiana is at 14%, Minnesota at 56%, Iowa at 70%.  Anything under 50% today should be seen as friendly.  The five year average is 80% nationwide.  Beans were pegged at 19% planted vs a 5 year average of 47%.  I would look for a steady to higher start to tonight’s trade as we try once again to break through current resistance on corn.

Corn battled back to the highs for the week at 3.80 July futures and managed to close there this time.  Weather models look very similar to yesterday, still wet.  Some of the heavy precip might have slid a little south and east.  I would expect a fairly quiet day on the market’s tomorrow with potential fireworks on Sunday night's trade.  Observed precip over the weekend and the updated Sunday night forecast will tell the story how we trade next week.  3.90 July futures remain my near-term target, which would bring Dec back to that 4.05 area.  If you would like to have orders working for Sunday night make sure you get them to us by tomorrow afternoon.  Beans are simply a follower at this point in time, so if corn spikes beans will likely follow.  Basis on corn is weaker today as the corn market remains worried about a continued price rally.  It is all about weather one way or another.

Overnight markets and the morning session had very nice follow thru to yesterday's rally.  Corn traded up as much as 11 cents and beans were up 17 at their highs. This rally had the market buzzing that we had a chance at the 3.90 July and 4.00 Dec area that I mentioned yesterday.  There were some producers pulling orders as the bullish sentiment set in quickly.  Other guys stuck the course and made sales as they planned.  Those who stuck the course look like heroes today as the corn market made an entire reversal and finished just slightly higher.  Keep in mind how many unknowns we have in this market between trade, weather, and politics in general.  This is not a good time to put all your cards in one deck.  Scale up sales are a safe approach and typically end up helping your final average price.  Basis tried to back off this morning, but might be a head fake for now.  How much we rally will likely decided that outcome.  There are some new acres predictions being thrown around by some private analysts as we start to assume, we will see less corn acres.  Bean acres will be higher than the previous March estimates which will eventually be bearish to bean fundamentals.

Last night’s planting progress report finally hit home and got the funds attention.  Corn planting is at 30% vs 66% average.  The estimate was guessed to be 35%.  The big watch remains Illinois in my opinion.  They are estimated at 11% complete vs an average of 82%.  They have completed just 2% over the past two weeks combined.  Indiana is not much better at 6% complete vs 57% average.  MN is at 21% vs 65% average.  SD is at 4% vs 54% average.  This progress report plus the time needed to dry out before we can get in the field has the funds full attention.  Today's move higher doesn't have them ready to bail on their entire short, but it does have their attention.  3.72 - 3.75 July looks to be the first set of resistance, with 3.90 July being the ultimate goal for the time being.  That would imply Dec gets back to the 4.00 - 4.05 area.  If that level is achieved corn will move.  Basis feels like it wants to back off, but holds tight for now.  Bean planting progress is at 9% complete vs an average of 29%.  Beans led the way higher, which is a bit surprising on delayed planting talks.  8.40 July futures will fill the gap and is the target.  Nov beans did manage to fill the gap today, but finished 6 cents off the highs. 

We continue to watch for news on trade deals, Friday's USDA report, and weather.  Those three factors are in complete control for the rest of the month.  Trade news today included Washington saying "China wants a trade deal".  Then we also saw a headline that China is ready to retaliate if the US goes forward with increased tariffs on Friday.  Sounds to me like we are still right where we were 3,450 trade headlines ago.  Friday's USDA report is our first look at our new crop situation and most traders expect that to look bearish.  Guesses seem to be in wider ranges than "normal", but that should be expected as there are more unknowns with trade than we have ever seen before.  Also late planted crops are hard to   predict yield which just adds to the complication.  It's too early to cut back corn acres due to weather and nobody wants to add more beans due to price.  The updated 6-10 day forecast models show below normal precipitation for much of the Corn Belt.  Temperatures are expected to be below normal, which could limit drying.  It looks like we should have a window of planting next week throughout the corn belt.  Get Er Done!

Well…..We finally have a day in the green numbers although it was only by a couple cents in corn and a half cent in beans.  Apparently last night’s planting progress hasn't scared the funds yet.  Will next week’s numbers scare them?  The weather seems to be making a shift dryer after this week, so will that be a big enough window to get it all in the ground?  Chinese VP will be attending negotiations after all after yesterday it was rumored both ways.  Today I even saw a headline that talks might extend into the weekend.  Maybe they should start talking before we worry about extending them…but that is just my opinion.  Trump continues with his threats to raise tariffs if a deal in not in place by this Friday.  Not much new today on the news front.  We do have a USDA monthly report on Friday, but trade agreements and weather will likely mean more than that report.  Fundamentals remain bearish, but planting progress and trade deal hopes keep the corn market afloat.  We are only down 4 cents in corn from Sunday nights washout due to the Trump tweets. 

Just when we thought we were going to get rolling on delayed planting the market takes another hit due to a Trump tweet on Sunday night.  Trump said in a tweet Sunday afternoon that the current 10% levies on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods will rise to 25% on Friday. He also threatened to impose 25% tariffs on an additional $325 billion of Chinese goods “shortly".  So what once sounded like promising talks and "great" progress being made now feels like we just took a big step backwards.   The overnight markets felt the heat, but finished well off their lows.  China was rumored last night to possibly cancel this weeks talks, but it sounds like they are still going to happen.  Crop progress this afternoon has us below estimates and might finally catch some attention.  Corn was pegged at 23% planted vs 36% last year and a 46% average.  Beans were pegged at 6% planted vs 14% last year and a 14% average.  The one state I told you to keep an eye on last week was Illinois.  They went from 9% last week to 10% this week vs an average of 66%.  Oh and to top it off Indiana is still at 3% as well vs a 35% average.  The weather forecast continues to be very wet in the I states for this coming week, so progress will be minimal again.  Next week is already the middle of May!

Not much news today as the forecast is basically unchanged.  Corn continues the bounce higher with the front month leading the way higher as farmer movement remains very slow.  Beans continue the free fall as we continue to make new lows.  Talks with China continue to sound positive at the moment, but still no word of deal.  Export sales were poor this morning for corn, beans, and wheat as all of them were below the low end of estimates.  So, what should we be doing on our marketing today?  1.  Be looking at summer corn basis.  2.  Be looking ahead at Dec 2020 as we are trading 4.11 futures tonight.  Dec 2020 will lag behind any nearby rally due to delayed planting.  Starting Dec 2020 at 4.10 to 4.20 is not a mistake at this point.  3.  As we start to move higher on the front end in the next couple weeks use the scale up approach starting at 3.35 cash and work your way up to 3.60 cash.  We may not ever hit 3.60, but at least we are getting a start on it and will end up with a decent average.  As far as beans go there really isn't a good plan at the moment.  At the moment the plan is to "hope" it comes back….and "hope" doesn’t tend to be a very good marketing plan. 

Corn had a nice bounce today up 6 cents and finished right near the high of the day.  Beans were down nearly a dime at one point, but battled back to down just a couple.  It looks like we are finally trading delayed planting.  The forecast basically looks the same as it did yesterday, but we flipped the calendar to May and all of a sudden it matters.  Next week will likely be more important as we get later in the month, but this is definitely a start.  3.75 July futures looks to be the next target on the charts.  If we can break through that level 3.90 would be the main objective.  I am not giving you these targets to fall in love with your grain and think we are going to the moon, but to let you know where to begin pitching some of this old crop corn length.  As we approach that 3.75 level, grain movement will pick up and will increase every move higher from there.  3.75 July might be a key level to decide if basis is safe moving forward if summer exports are going to be as poor as traders are predicting.  There was some news out of China talks today that mention we could be close to removing tariffs.  Believe what you want there….as rumors are just that. 

Month end has arrived and the funds just keep the pedal to the metal on their short positions.  So much for them covering any short positions like I thought may happen. The old adage “The market can remain illogical, longer than you can remain solvent” comes to mind after looking at a day like today. But then again, a look at the fundamentals makes it hard to disagree with what the funds have done so far. 2 billion bushels of corn, 1 billion each for soy and wheat.  Trade deals and the African Swine Fever in China remain huge negative to the market.  The only bullish factor we have today is the weather forecast.  There is a very good argument on delayed planting and prevent plant brewing, but the funds are in control at the moment and assuming the weather will change and allow planting to take place.  Last night's update on planting progress had corn at 15% vs 15% last year and 27% average.  Beans were pegged at 3% vs 3% last year and 6% average.  The numbers that caught my eye from this progress report was Illinois at 9% planted on corn vs 43% and Indiana at 2% vs 17% average.  Those two states might be the key to the delayed planting talk going forward looking at their 6-10 day forecast. I posted some forecast maps on facebook.

Definitely not quite the fireworks we were looking for today consider the weekend weather we had and the forecast going forward.  The 6-10 forecast looks very wet for the eastern corn belt.  If that holds true maybe we can get a bounce in corn. The funds remain in control.  Beans were the weak link today as many feel we could pick up even more acres due to weather delays.  I also caught wind today that a few wheat acres could switch to beans because of such poor wheat prices.  Either way we do not need to pick up any bean acres.  Tomorrow is month end and could cause the funds to liquidate some of their massive short position.  Today didn't look promising if that is any indication.  Beans and wheat both made new contract lows today as that continues to be a common theme as of late.  Let’s hope for some turn around Tuesday action.

Corn bounces slightly on some fund short covering and weather forecast worries.  Are we finally going to start thinking about planting delays?  The Sunday night forecast should set the tone for next week.  Beans were the weak link today as we put in a new low on the May contract breaking through the September 18th low of 8.53.  We did managed to close above that level by hair, but it doesn't bode well to have a contract expire at the lows.  That’s not friendly long term.  Meal seemed to be the dog today as we closed under the 300 dollar mark for the first time.  News that President Trump and China’s President Xi “might” get together in Washington in June prompted some chatter about a trade deal announcement or signing at that time.  We have heard rumors like this many times, so I guess we just continue to wait and see.  As long as the Sunday night forecast looks similar to todays, then we couple that with month end, I would assume the funds will cover more corn shorts early next week.

Weather forecasts seem to be adding a lot of confusion to these markets.  A couple sources yesterday said we are losing weather premium that we had in the market, but I didn’t realize we had any weather premium in the market to start with?  Most forecasts I have been looking at look wet for the next 2 weeks, so I have to believe we are low enough here as it’s too early to be selling off.  If we had any premium in the corn market you could say we had Chinese optimism that they were going to be a buyer.  Is that optimism disappearing….maybe?  Nothing has changed with any trade deals in the past week, so that could also been seen as a negative.  Funds are taking the brunt of the blame on this move lower, but there is nobody to challenge their logic at the moment.  So they can keep the pressure on until they are proved wrong at this point.  As I mentioned yesterday I wouldn’t be surprised if we trade higher heading into month end, but I said that yesterday as well and was wrong.  May options expire Friday and 3.50 might be a key level to watch.  For those of you with basis contracts we need to be priced or rolled by the close on Monday. 

So much for Turn Around Tuesday.  The grain markets continue to struggle even though planting progress came out last night at 6% planted vs 12% average for this time.  Weather looks to improve some and that is all the funds needed to see as they don't seem concerned and add to their shorts.  The funds have no reason to let off the pedal at the moment as they seem to be winning almost every day.  It just doesn't feel right to me to be making new lows at this point in time.  Will the funds take some profit heading into month end and cover some of their short positions?  I guess that’s our hope at this point.  Beans were the leader in the move lower today as meal tests the 300 dollar market once again.  With the African Swine Fever in China the meal market might be the biggest concern.  I think it is just a matter of time before meal breaks lower, but like I said earlier I don't think it is the right time.  Corn was down 3-4 cents today and is at a new contract low.  The corn and bean export programs seem to be in question for the summer as we not competitive, but one way to get competitive is to make prices cheaper.  We are definitely working on that. 

The U.S. and China have tentatively scheduled a fresh round of face-to-face meetings as they seek to close out a trade deal, with negotiators aiming for a signing ceremony in late May or early June, according to a person familiar with the situation.  U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer is tentatively set to travel to Beijing the week of April 29, the person said, with Chinese envoy Liu He coming to Washington the week of May 6.  So the saga continues…..On March 8th the trade meeting set for March 27th between Trump and Xi was cancelled and was rumored to be pushed out 3-4 weeks.  On April 3rd Trump said we could have a deal in 3-4 weeks.  And now it's April 17th and we are projecting a deal by the end of May or early June.  Raise your hand if you believe any of this anymore!  The futures market sure isn't showing any signs of belief.  Everyone wants to blame the funds for being at record shorts, but who can blame them?  Will a deal with China get them to cover their shorts?  Not any time soon the way it looks.  Delayed planting has the best shot to scare them out of their position, but we need to get into May before any nerves set in.

Overall it was another "risk off" day in the grain markets as the funds continue to add to their already record short positions.  By the noon hour we had already saw over 12,000 wheat contracts sold, 6,000 corn, and 10,000 soybeans.  That is pretty amazing considering nothing real bearish hit the markets overnight.  The financial markets act like a trade deal is much closer than the grain markets indicate.  The only real bearish factor today is the forecast turning warmer and dryer into the first part of May.  Most traders feel we will see more prevent plant acres this year due to flooding, but we are not even into May yet.  We might need these concerns to carry over into May before we see any premium added back into the market.  Just keep in mind that the farmer is holding a lot of grain at home and I think a chunk of that moves with a 15-20 cent rally, which will likely offset some of the funds liquidation limiting a significant move higher.  We had a private group out today estimating Argentina and Brazil production up 1 MMT and are now respectively 56 and 117 MMT.  Some believe that number is too high in Brazil as they think it’s closer to 110 MMT.  Either way we are not going to run out of beans any time soon.

Traders remain optimistic on the US/China trade negotiations after comments over the weekend from Secretary Mnuchin. China may be considering a US request to shift some tariffs on key agricultural products to other products in order to sell an eventual trade deal as a win for farmers leading up to the 2020 elections. The shift is because the US does not intend to lift its own tariffs on 50 billion of Chinese imports even if an agreement is reached. Also, encouraging news came from the commerce ministry in China saying they would review whether to continue the anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures on US DDG’s. Mnuchin also said the US would be open to facing repercussions if it doesn’t live up to its commitments of a potential trade deal.  The saga continues…..  Corn export inspections came in at the high end of estimates at 1.182 mmt.  Bean export inspections came in at .460 mmt, which was the very bottom of the estimates.  The NOPA March crush came in at 170.0 million bushels vs an average estimate of 169.1 million.  Weather looks to remain wet in the next 1-2 week forecast.  The question remains whether the funds will get nervous with their record short corn position.

The grain markets traded lower today on another round of poor exports and a questionable export program this summer.  Weather remains the debatable factor today, but the markets don't feel concerned at the moment as the carryouts are comfortable either way.  Last year we saw a similar April snow storm, but maybe not quite this extreme.  This reminds us once again how volatile April weather can be.  The watch is the forecast for the remaining month of April looks to continue on the wet side.  Conab was out this morning with their updated Brazil production estimates. They pegged corn at 94 MMT compared to the USDA at 96 MMT.  The estimate on the beans was at 113.8 MMT vs the USDA at 117.0 MMT.  So those are friendly vs the USDA, but still a comfortable crop.    

We traded the report in a sell the rumor, buy the fact type fashion.  Everybody was saying how bearish this report would be for the corn market and it was exactly that, but it seem like it was already factored in.  Yesterday I mentioned how they were going to drop corn usage and they did just that.  Corn for feed was down 75 million, Ethanol down 50 million, and exports down 75 million.  That means we added 200 million to the ending stocks.  The US 18/19 corn carryout came in at 2.035 billion bushels vs an average guess of 1.991.  The World 18/19 corn carryout was pegged at 314 mmt vs an average trade guess of 311.16 mmt.  Both these numbers are very ugly, but we still managed to finish corn unchanged for the day.   The bean side of the report was pretty neutral.  The US 18/19 bean carryout came in at 895 million vs an average guess of 898 million.  The World 18/19 bean carryout came in at 107.4 mmt vs an average trade guess of 108.04 mmt.  No surprises on the beans.  Weather is now the watch as the forecast remains cool and wet.  Nothing new today on any Trade Deals.

Another quiet day in the grain markets as there was nothing new on the trade war over the weekend.  The USDA is out tomorrow with their April USDA report and it’s not going to look pretty.  US 18/19 corn carryout is guessed at 1.991 billion bushel.  The added stocks from March are going to take its toll.  Lower demand is also the other worry as Feed, Exports, and Ethanol all have the potential to drop this month.  How much of a drop is the question.  I am guessing they will span it out over the next few reports rather than just dropping a bomb on this report.  Hopefully that gives us more time to pick up some new corn business.  The bean carryout has been fairly steady since the first of the year and again is estimated at 898 million bushel.  This should be an uneventful report as far as the bean market goes.  Maybe a neutral report is a good thing as we wait to pounce the news of a US/China trade deal.  We are just sitting here waiting for the headline of a meeting date between Trump and Xi, which would make the market trade as if a trade deal is complete.  The markets still don't seem worried about the upcoming weather, which doesn't look good for us.

The trend continues as trade talks remain the front and center headline as yesterday's meeting indicated there is still no "real" deal yet.  One day things look great and the next day not so much.  Politics….Politics…..Politics…..  Mexico also had something to say today; "they won't ratify the trade agreement with the U.S. until tariffs on steel and aluminum are lifted" and that didn't seem to sit well either.  So maybe we are further away from any deal than we thought.  This coming Tuesday is the monthly April USDA report.  Hard to think that can be anything friendly with the stocks and acres they gave us in March.  Next year’s corn carryout could be pushing 2 billion!  The 10 day forecast looks cool and wet for much of the Midwest, but the market doesn't seem concerned.  The thought is that the extra 270 million corn stocks the USDA gave us is enough to more than offset any loss in acres to delayed planting.  For the week corn was up 6 and beans were up 15. 

Today was all about the hype of the meeting this afternoon between President Trump Chinese Vice Premier Liu He.  Some wires are reporting there is a good chance they could announce a date today when Trump and President Xi will meet and sign a new trade deal.  Others are reporting that Trump will announce there are a few "minor" sticking points that need to be resolved before there is a new deal.  Those are two completely different scenarios, so I guess we hurry up and wait.  The trend has been to buy the rumor and sell the disappointment.  Will that happen again tomorrow?  It wouldn’t shock me that’s for sure.  Corn movement remains very slow and basis is reluctant to improve further as the export markets continue to look forward into June and July and see a big inverse.  The market knows there is a large amount of grain on the farm and is just buying its time waiting for planting to get wrapped up.  Weekly bean export sales were 72 million bushel.  Weekly corn export sales were 21 million.  The monthly April USDA report is on Tuesday as we will get the first look at next year's carryout using the new March stocks and planted acres numbers.

The early morning bounce seemed to be about China trade optimism as talks continue today.  NBC news had a news article this morning that a trade deal is near and this could be the last round of negotiations before President Trump and Xi can finally reschedule their meeting and announce a deal.  There is two hang-up's keeping the deal from being final, but those two hang-ups are some of the most important details.  We have heard we are close numerous times, so don’t get too excited.  The markets were not able to hold early gains, so the doubt remains.  Trade is also watching Washington as there is now talk of closing the Mexico border.  That would be another direct blow to the US farmer.  It seems like that news has since toned down some, but the threat is still there.  The US currently ships an average of 2,300 rail cars of grain across the Mexico border per week.  This deal with Mexico is just as important, if not more, than the China trade deal.  Weather continues to be an issue, as storms are forecasted for many of the flooded areas over the next week.  Much of the Midwest is forecasted for above normal precip in the 6-10 day.  Maybe we can get some weather premium back into the market as we try and fight out of last Friday’s report.

We had another 828,000 Tons of beans announced to China this morning.  That looks to be the other half of the rumored sale that was not announced on Friday.  That sale seemed to support beans today and led the way higher.  Fund buying is likely the main reason for the move higher today as they take profits from Friday's USDA report sell off.  I heard one source mention a trade deal with China could be possible this week as trade talks continue….How many times have we heard that now?  Hopefully we hear of a makeup date for the Trump and Xi meeting, which would be a better indication we are getting close.  Export inspections had beans at 26 million vs 21 million last year at this time.  We are currently at 1,076 million vs 1,525 last year.  Expectations are at 1,875 vs 2,129 last year.  Corn inspections were at 49 million vs 56 million last year.  We are currently at 1,168 million vs 967 last year.  Expectations are at 2,375 vs 2,438 last year.  Still no export business from China as rumored for the last month.  The DOW is knocking on the door of the February high up 300 points today.  Are we going to test 27,000?

USDA Report day:

The report today was bearish corn and Neutral beans.  Corn acres were 1.5 million acres over the average trade guess at 92.8 million.  Bean acres were 1.5 million under the average trade guess at 84.6 million.  That is what we needed to keep the bean carryout under control, but it still won't get it under 900 million with a trend yield.  Also keep in mind that this will be the highest corn acre number printed this year as flooding was definitely not considered in this acre rationale.  Corn and bean stocks were not friendly.  Corn stocks were estimated at 8.605 billion vs an average guess of 8.335.  Bean stocks were estimated at 2.716 billion bushel vs an average guess of 2.683. No surprise there as we know there is a tremendous amount of grain in the country that needs to move yet this year.  More beans than normal also got packed away due to the trade war and low prices.  Corn got shellacked today as we test the March December low of 3.86.  If we break that the September low is at 3.83 December futures.  I would think that level will hold.  You can file this report in the not good category. 

World weather seems to be getting a lot of press today and is pressuring the markets. Yes the US is seeing major flooding take place, but so far the grain markets have ignored that and trumped that with better world weather.  How much the flooding will impact this year’s planting intentions remain to be seen.  It's just too early to tell the final impacts. Prevent planting will be up no doubt, but the question is how much.  It wasn't just the grain markets today that were ugly.  The DOW traded down over 250 points early, but has since rallied back to unchanged.  Hopefully the grains follow suit tonight and get some of these losses back.  May beans broke below the March low, but settled right on it.  The USDA report on Friday remains the "watch" as we will get both the March stocks and the planting intentions.  Once the acres numbers are released traders will automatically assume there will be more bean acres than they print due to flooding and delayed planting.  That might not be a good thing for the bean market.  I mentioned yesterday that the current trend is to be bullish corn and bearish beans and I think we continue to see that play out.  See my GPC facebook page for the corn supply and demand breakdown.

The grain markets took a small step backwards today as we await Friday's USDA report.  Estimates for the report were out today.  The average guess on corn acres is at 91.332 million.  The average guess on beans acres is at 86.169 million.  86+ million acres is more than enough to continue to grow our carryout.  The big watch remains on flooding delays as it could cause additional bean acres.  Bean stocks are estimated at 2.683 billion bushel vs 2.109 a year ago.  No surprise with a 900 million bushel carryout.  Corn stocks are estimated at 8.335 billion bushel vs 8.892 a year ago.  The bias in the market remains bullish corn and bearish beans, in which I agree, but be paying close attention.  My fear in corn remains in the summer.  There is a massive amount of corn that needs to move when planting is complete.  Basis has been strong and supported thus far, but with a decent SA corn harvest upcoming, US corn exports are in question.  That combination could be a killer going forward and could weigh on prices.  Weather as always will be the driver as the markets love to trade weather, but this something you need to keep in the back of your mind.  Keep an eye on the markets and basis while planting is taking place.

The grains continued their steady march higher today, but failed to make new highs for the move.  Corn matched Friday's high, but didn't trade higher.  Corn movement continues to trickle in, but 3.85 - 3.90 May futures are needed for a big step up in movement.  Basis so far has held strong on this rally, but 3.90 May futures would likely give basis a setback.  The main reason for the rally continues to be flooding concerns, a wet 30 day forecast, record short fund position, and talk that China still may be in the market for more corn.  Just don't forget that we have a USDA stocks and planting intentions on Friday.  Will we see more corn acres like many predicted early in the year?  Will more acres go to beans than previously thought?  All these questions will be answered on Friday, but weather will have the final say as acres could shift to beans if we get delayed.  Corn export inspections were 39 million bushel vs 52 last year.  Bean export inspections were 31 million bushels vs 26 last year.  Corn is nearing the 100 day moving average on the May futures at 3.83 and the 200 day moving average of 3.855.  Those will be resistance as we head into Friday's report.

Finally we have a confirmed USDA corn sale announcement to China!  The bad news is it was only for 300,000 tons, but it’s a start none the less.  Corn traded up to 3.80 May futures, which was the first set of resistance.  Crude oil broke lower down $1.50 and the DOW was down over 400 points at one point, which seemed to take the wind out of the sail in the grains.  It feels like we are ready to take corn higher as we head into the planting intentions report next Friday.  3.90 May futures continues to be the next target.  This weekend will be important to see how much more flooding occurs and how bad.  That could set the tone to start next week's trade.  Weather is the driver as we head into spring.  For the week corn was up 5 and beans were down 5.  Delayed planting will do that as we look at the possibility of more beans acres due to the late start.  The farmer was a seller today of some old and new corn at the highs.  The next dime higher on corn will get the farmer to engage as we approach 3.50 cash corn.  Have a good weekend and enjoy the spring like weather.

GPC Grain now has a Facebook page "Glacial Plains Coop Grain".  Go ahead and Like out page if you would like to follow us there.  

Corn and beans both popped higher today on a couple different storylines.  The first one being "more" rumors of China corn business in the export market.  This is an every other day ordeal anymore in which nothing has been confirmed yet.  The second story is that NOAA put out a map predicting their 2019 Flood Outlook.  We have been talking about Nebraska and Iowa, but this map also indicates many more areas will be at major flood stage soon.  I think we are finally starting to put this in perspective and looking ahead to planting projections.  This could be a friendly scenario for corn, but just the opposite for beans.  We will have to also keep an eye on acres that end up going unplanted.  It might be a touch too early to go that far yet however.  Export sales were just ok for corn at 856 tmt.  Bean export sales were on the low end at 399 tmt.  The largest buyer was Germany followed by China, which isn't something we want to be proud of.  A corn close over 3.77 3/4 May futures could lead to another dime higher.  The bean charts also looks promising for a small move higher, but fundamentals indicate otherwise. 

There remains some negative news in the market and it continues to drag this market lower.  Even with many areas of flooding we really haven't started talking about delayed planting or loss of piles and bins.  Grains are still talking about higher world 2019 supplies versus demand.  Money flow continues to push grains lower as the funds remain near record short levels.  There is also some China push back on trade talks.  All these factors are bearish grain futures and we are having a hard time finding anything else fresh to trade.  Planting intentions are not until March 29th, which will be very important, but weather will have the final say on acres.  The Nebraska governor estimated there will be "$400 to $500 million in livestock losses and about $400 million in crop losses because spring planting will be delayed or canceled."  St. Louis and other areas will see major flooding take place in the next few days.  Rail and River freight are a mess, which leads to problems locally as well. 

Not much in the way of news today besides the flooding in Nebraska as that continues to get worse.  There are a lot of pictures circulating around of grain bins buckling and flood roads and rail ways.  The worst is yet to come in many of these areas I would assume.  The railroad is also feeling the heat and that is just adding fuel to the fire as the railroad was already behind and values were too expensive.  There was nothing new on US / China talks over the weekend other than the possibility of the cancelled March 27^th meeting being moved to June.  That is not a good thing if you ask me.  Maybe that is what broke the market lower this morning?  Grain feels like it wants to move with warmer temps, but sloppy roads and road restrictions won't help that happen.  Once grain starts to move it should take the pressure off these end users.  I still think we have until planting is completed before basis takes much of a hit, but it's something to keep an eye on.  A rally could make it happen a little quicker if we start talking delayed planting.

Grains feel like they want to add some trade (US/China) premium back into the market as we peel further off the monthly lows.  Flooding is another cause for concern as we begin to talk about delayed planting.  Yeah it may be a little early to worry about that, but major flooding in the Midwest is a major cause for concern.  River open will be an interesting one and that affects the entire grain industry.  It is not only grain shipments that cannot flow south it’s also fertilizer shipments that can’t flow north.  That could be a big concern moving forward as we get into planting season if fertilizer is not readily available.  Prices have already spiked over fall prices as predicted, but a tight supply due to shipment delays will not help matters.  It’s more important considering we only need like a two week window to get the majority of the crop in the ground (weather permitting).  Yesterday we had some new corn export business to Japan, but still nothing confirmed on the China corn rumors.  Basis continues to firm as of late due to slow movement and now road postings won't help matters.  We will have to see if we can continue this rally next week after a solid close for the week.  For the week corn was up 9 and beans were up 14.  I would be thinking about selling beans as we approach 8.20 cash. 

The grain markets started the day lower, but turned around on rumors of a 2-3 MMT corn sale to China out the PNW.  That has not been confirmed from anyone we do business with as of yet, so once again I have my doubts.  Apparently the futures market had it doubts as well as corn finished up a penny on the day.  A 2-3 MMT corn sale to china would be a great considering China hasn't exceeded 1 MMT since 13/14 crop year.  We continue to wait for planting intentions on March 29th, which should be the 2nd biggest indicator going forward.  The biggest factor will be spring planting weather.  Will we see these fund shorts get nervous at some point and bail out of their positions?  We are now a nickel off Tuesday's corn and bean lows.  AgRural, an agribusiness consultancy in Brazil, released updated production numbers overnight. They estimated Brazilian farmers to harvest 112.9 million tons of soybeans this season, up from their previous forecast of 112.5 million tons.  Timely rains were mentioned as the reason for the improvement. 

Today we finally got the markets to take a jump higher on a rumor of a "big" wheat sale.  We will have to see if that rumor indeed gets confirmed tomorrow in order to continue this rally.  Weather looks to be the main focus as we head into spring planting.  This next storm has areas expecting to get another 8-12 inches of snow and other areas expecting 1-2 inches of rain.  This is likely going to make a mess out of what is already a disaster.  Everyone wants to see this snow leave, but this will cause bigger issues with flooding.  River logistics will become a nightmare just like rail logistics have been for the last month.  Rail values have improved some, but there still remains a lot of work to do to get caught back up.  Domestic bids remain the market on corn as farmer movement remains slow.  At this point I would expect that to be the case until the crop gets planted.  Yards and roads will be a mess if this forecast is correct.  Hearing State road postings go on Friday already.

Word broke overnight that Trump and Xi have postponed their March 27 summit as both sides try and pin down details and avoid an embarrassing failure.  That added pressure to the grains ahead of the USDA report.  The USDA report itself had no real surprises, so the market continued to trade slightly lower.  Corn carryout was higher than expected at 1.835 billion vs a guess of 1.736.  The changes were a drop in 75 million exports and 25 million ethanol; adding a total of 100 million onto the carryout from the Feb report.  World corn carryout was pegged at 308.5 mmt vs a guess of 309.06 mmt.  Bean carryout was down 10 million from Feb at 900 million vs the guess of 902 million.  Crush up 10 million was the only change.  May corn put in a new low since last Sept at 3.62 1/4, but finished back above the 3.64 level.  Hopefully we can hold these lows and work higher from here.  May Beans closed above the Dec low today by a couple cents after testing below it for a short period of time today.  For the week corn was down 9 and beans were down 16.  Basis has improved some to wash out some of those loses, but basis improvement should be limited from here.

Corn had another rough day as we are now only 2 cents from the September low on the May contract.  Tomorrow is USDA report day, so maybe that can get the corn market off its butt.  We are too cheap here in my opinion and this should be a good spot to re-own previous sales if you have your own trading account.  The good news in a down market is that basis continues to improve.  This next month could give us the best shot we see at basis throughout the balance of the year.  The processor is feeling the heat at moment, but they are only pushing for quick ship bushels which are hard to find with continued winter weather and a poor flat price.  Ethanol margins remain very tight, which makes it even harder to pay up for corn.  Rail freight is through the roof due to weather as well, which makes new export business nearly impossible in March and April.  Deferred interest has been tough to come by as well at the moment, but hopefully that will show up sooner than later.  Rumor has it China was back in the market for some more good faith beans overnight for the July - Nov time slot.  That news alone helped beans hold close to unchanged today.  Report at 11:00 tomorrow. 

I will be out of the office the next couple of days at the MN Grain and Feed convention in Minneapolis, so there will be no grain commentary until I get back.  If you need anything while I am out please call Terri at the Murdock office.  Overnight markets caught a bid as it sounds like US and China talks were going in the right direction once again.  Both corn and beans were unable to hold the highs by the close, but still finished on the plus side.  Both parties are said to belooking for options to lift current tariffs.  One source today even mentioned a possible trade deal signing at a March 27th meeting.  We will have to keep an eye on that.  South American weather continues to improve, which should be bearish short term.  We do have a monthly USDA WASDE report on Friday, even though I am not expectig much excitement on that.  The March 29th planting intention report will be the important one.  As it stands I don't think we will see near the switch to corn, as most areas stay with similar corn bean rotations.  Current bean futures are not scaring too many acreas away.  With good growing weather that could make the bean carryout larger than our current 910 million.  Be thinking about getting started marketing anywhere near 9.70 November futures.     

Corn and beans both finished up 1-2 cents, which might not seem like much but today it feels like a big accomplishment.  Corn started the day being the weak link as we saw a large number of corn deliveries overnight.  May corn bottomed out at 3.66, only 3 cents off the contract low.  Around the noon hour corn caught a bid and finished the day up 2 cents, which was 7 cents off the low of the day.  That was strong close today as it feels like we are not ready to test that 3.63 low as of yet.  Beans had similar action today with the only difference being we were up 6 at the coffee break.  As soon as the market opened at 8:30 we started the march lower and traded the May contract down to the magical 9.00 level.  It felt like corn pulled beans back higher as beans finished 11 cents off the lows for the day.  CIF beans were a nickel weaker after China failed to show up once again.  Yesterday there felt like there was more optimism and today not so much.  The saga continues…..

Corn and beans continued their march lower as we are in a friendly new void.  Exports sales were great for corn, beans and wheat, but the futures market only traded that for about 3 minutes this morning.  New business has been slow to come by on the export side as rail freight drives people away.  Month end likely didn't help anything as funds liquidated some positions.  Crop insurance levels are now set.  Corn ended at 4.00, 2 cents better than last year.  Beans ended at 9.54, 62 cents less than last year.  Wheat finished at 5.78, 53 cents less than last year.  May corn is now only 7 cents from the contract low.  Dec corn finished the day at 3.92 and had its lowest close we have seen since around Thanksgiving time.  That’s only 9 cents away from the contract low on the new crop contract.  It feels like we are too cheap today considering there is no grain moving, but a test to the lows is possible.  If you have made sales, a test of the lows should be a good place to re-own futures or calls.  Beans are still range bound and are 3-5 cents from the first level of support.  Let’s see if we get some new money back to start the month of March and help turn this around.

Another poor performance in grains today, as we continue to try and sort out the China trade talks.  Near term support on corn is at 3.75 May futures.  The March chart looks far worse, so we don’t want to watch that anymore as first notice day is Thursday.  If 3.75 May does not hold the next level of support is down at 3.63.  Basis continues to improve in places as the end user is a bit hungry for corn.  Poor prices and poor weather is to blame and doesn't look to change anytime soon.  The bean charts look better than corn at the moment as we are holding support on both the March and the May contracts by about a dime.  Is China coming back for another round of beans?  There seems to be conflicting reports now.  We did have another bean sale announced this morning to Mexico of 120 tmt.  48 tmt of which is old crop and 72 tmt is new crop.  That didn't seem to help today as we opened up lower at 8:30 then we were at the coffee break.  Expert crop scout Cordonieer leaves his Brazil production estimate at 113 mmt with a neutral to higher bias.  SA weather continues to improve, which might limit the downside in production for now.

Late Friday we had an announcement from Mr. Purdue that China committed to buying another 10 mmt of Soybeans from the US as part of more good faith purchases in trade negotiations.  That had the market fired up and it looked like Sunday night could be an interesting trade.  Beans gapped higher up about 8 cents and corn was up 2-3 in early trade.  At the coffee break corn was up 1-2 and beans were up 8.  That didn't last long.  Wheat was the real dog today, down 20 in Chicago.  That seemed to cause corn and beans to move lower as corn finished the day down 4-5 and beans only up a penny.  Not a real friendly close for the balance of the week.  Export inspections were solid for beans and wheat, but poor for corn.  Corn seems to have tailed off as of late and just cannot come up with much new business.  We did however have a corn sale on the wire this morning to Mexico.  Domestic bids seem to be leading the way higher as movement remains light due to weather.   Rail freight remains ridiculous due to weather and poor performance.  Nothing improved on that front over the weekend.

Today was all about the massive USDA data dump on exports and the end result was pretty bland once again finishing unchanged on both corn and beans.  It's hard to believe we can have a duel report two weeks ago and a month worth of export sales this week and we are still within 2 cents on both corn and bean futures as we were on Feb 7th prior.  That just affirms how comfortable this market is trading in this range.  What’s going break the trend?  Corn export sales were solid at just over 6 mmt.  The range of guesses was 4 - 7 mmt.  Bean export sales were on the low end of estimates at 6.5 mmt.  Estimates were in the range of 6 - 9 mmt.  The interesting part is China was only 3.9 mmt of that.  Where is the supposedly 10 mmt they bought?  The other important part was another 1.0 mmt worth of cancellations from unknown.  The USDA outlook conference was out with their carryout estimates for 19/20 and they see the corn and bean carryout’s tightening slightly.  Their estimate on the corn carryout was 1.650 billion vs 1.735 currently.  For beans they are estimating 845 million vs 910 currently.

It’s good to finally see some action in these markets. The good part is it was to the plus side this time so we could recoup some of the recent losses.  The main story was that China talks have continued and there remains talk that they could potentially buy an additional 30 billion dollars worth of ag products.  We have heard this a couple times, but as always one day they are and the next they are not.  Either way you look at it we continue to be stuck in a range.  The other bit of news this morning was the USDA outlook conference released their planting intentions.  They guessed corn acres at 92 million vs 89.1 million in 2018.  That was about a half a million higher than expected.  Bean acres were guessed at 85.0 million vs 89.2 million in 2018.  That was about a million acres lower than anticipated.  From what I am hearing in MN, most producers are staying with close to the same rotation.  Weather might be the biggest factor in that decision when we get closer to planting.  Tomorrow morning at 7:30 we get the "BIG" data dump from the USDA on export sales to get us caught back up from the shutdown.  That will be the watch heading into the weekend to see if can continue this one day rally.

Overnight markets were slightly higher until about 6 AM on news once again that Mr. Trump said the "US will be selling a lot of corn to China".  That’s all it takes anymore is a simple headline to make this market react one way or another.  By the time the coffee break came about beans turned lower and put in a new low for the move down 7 at one point on follow thru selling from yesterday.  It took the balance of the day to battle back and finish slightly higher on both corn and beans.  Wheat was the unfortunate one again finishing down 7 and only 4 cents from the December lows. Take a peek at the December corn chart and you will notice that Dec corn has only traded outside the 3.95 - 4.05 range a total of 4 days, and has never closed outside of it.  That is pretty tight coil as we are waiting to spring out one way or another.  It’s either going to be bullish demand news (China) or bearish planting intentions.  So in other words I don't see much happening before mid-late March in the corn market.  Beans still feel like they want to trade lower, but I am not sure it is completely ready to trade fundamentals at this point.  At some point we trade the carryout and that is not friendly.

Corn, beans and wheat all took a hit today as we saw a day of liquidation across the grains.  Corn support should be at 3.67 March, but if that fails 3.55 would be in the cards if we decided to expire the March at the low.  Beans are a much worse picture if we decided to expire the March at the low because that level is 8.40 futures.  I don't think that will happen, but one never knows with a 910 million carryout.  There are support levels about every dime lower from here.  We did have a couple positive tweets from Trump this afternoon that brought the beans off their lows.  He said China talks are going well, but are complex.  He also said the March 1^st deadline is not a magical date.  The last thing he said was China is trying to move fast to avoid having the tariffs go up.  These are similar to the same lines we have heard over the past month with no real concrete evidence, besides some bean purchases.  These comments did manage to get beans to close over the 9.00 mark, but just by a whisker.  Corn and bean export inspections were solid as expected.  South American weather continues to improve. 

Everyone was waiting for the export sales to come out as we try and catch up this month.  This week we got the export sales for the week ending Jan 3rd and it showed a negative 22mbu soybeans! Unknown cancelled 16mbu and China cancelled 29mbu.  Whoops….nobody saw that coming considering they just purchased a bunch in good faith.  A reasoning I found was that it might have been China privates had purchases on the books before the China Gov’t purchase of 10MMTs in the weeks following.  Either way the market did not like the news and it took corn and wheat down with it.  Corn export sales were as expected.  Informa was out with their updated planting intentions and had 2019 corn acres at 91.6 million, up 90k from late last month.  For soybeans they had 2019 acres at 86.0 mln ac, down 160k from Jan.  No surprises on that front.  Yet again another headline breaks today with exactly the opposite story from the past couple days on trade talks.  It was a Bloomberg article and it read "U.S.-China Trade Teams Said to Be Far Apart on Reform Demands".  You just can't make this stuff up.  It’s truly amazing how much political stories can flip flop depending on who you talk too.  I don't think you can ever get the same version of the story twice in a row.

Positive news from the US and China trade talks and a deal that could avoid another government shutdown helped grain markets overnight. There are rumors that China may continue negotiations on intellectual properties and possibly buy up to $40 billion dollars of US Agriculture and energy goods annually.  So once again we flip flop stories by the day.  One day talks are going terrible and the next day a deal is near.  You just cannot make this stuff up.  Mr. Trump also tweeted today and said, he may be willing to postpone any more tariffs, but he really doesn't want to.  The other bullish news this morning was the CONAB update on the Brazil bean production. They updated their South American soybean projections overnight which also aided the markets. They dropped their estimate of the 2019 soybean crop to 115.3 MMT vs their previous estimate of 118.8 MMT. This is lower than the latest USDA estimate at 117 MMT.  The bad news is weather has improved some as Brazil looks wetter and Argentina looks dryer just as the doctor ordered.  Otherwise the trade stays range bound as we talked before and farmer movement is null.

Corn and beans continued to move slightly lower today off the USDA report on Friday.  Dec corn inched back under the 4.00 futures mark, which seems to be the magic number once again.  Corn futures are right on the last month lows and could be ready to break out lower as the long fund money was not happy with Friday's report.  If we break out lower 3.91 Dec could be in the cards short term.  I have mentioned previously that Dec corn over 4.00 is a great place to start on new crop and I will say it again.  In a market that has been basically flat we have a tendency to lose the carry as we move forward and the nearby contract expires.  Once the March corn contract expires the May will likely work towards that expiration price, which in turn brings the Dec contract with it.  That is about 8 cents worth of value at the moment.  4.00 Dec HTA's offer a great value if we can put the grain in the bin and capture the carry the market gives us moving forward.  Don't fall asleep on the markets just because it feels like they are at a standstill.  This time of the year could also be our best shot at basis since the farmer is disengaged and not willing to move grain due to the current price and weather.

Today was report day and for two months worth of info it was a boring one.   There was nothing on this report to break us out of our range, so it looks like we are stuck here for a bit.  Planting intentions in March will be the next chance to break out one way or another.  As far as the USDA numbers go here is a rundown….  Final 2018 corn yield was pegged at 176.4 bpa vs 178.9 in November.  So they lowered production by 206 million; however the USDA also offset some of that by lowering feed/residual by 125 mil, lowered Food/Seed by 40 mil, and lowered ethanol by 25 mil.  With those changes the US carryout was guessed at 1.735 billion vs 1.781 in Dec.  World carryout was guessed at 309.8 mmt vs 308.8 mmt in Dec.  The South American crop was as expected in Brazil and better than expected by 4 mmt in Argentina.  On the bean side, bean yield was put at 51.6 bpa vs 52.1 in Nov.  That lowered production by 56 million bushel, but the USDA dropped exports by 25 mil and raised crush by 10 mil leaving US ending stocks at 910 million.  World carryout was guessed at 106.7 mmt vs 115.33 mmt in Dec.  They lowered the Brazil estimate to 117.0 mmt and Argentina to 55 mmt.  Overall it was neutral report in my eyes and the market showed little change.  Stocks on both corn and beans were almost exactly as estimated pre report.

The grain markets were quiet overnight trading about a penny lower at the coffee break.  Then a new headline broke that Trump and Xi were "highly unlikely" to meet before the March 1st trade deadline.  Beans instantly traded down about a dime off that news.  Corn and wheat followed as we assume they will not buy those commodities anytime soon on that news.  The DOW went from trading unchanged to down 300 points on the same headline.  Tomorrow is USDA report day as we fit two reports into one.  Guesses have corn yield at 178 bpa, down about a bushel from the Nov report.  Corn carryout is estimated at 1.694 billion vs 1.781 in December.  Dec 1 corn stocks are estimated at 12.097 billion.  Bean yield is estimated at 51.8 bpa vs 52.1 in Nov.  Bean carryout is guessed at 904 million vs 955 in December.  Bean stocks are guessed to be 3.752 billion.  The biggest question mark for beans on this report in my opinion is the bean carryout.  It will be very hard to see something under 900 in my opinion; poor exports being the biggest reason.  For corn you can make a strong case for a lower carryout based on the current export pace, but ethanol usage might be a thorn in the side as margins remain negative.

The USDA yet again flashed another bean sale to China this morning.  This time it was 586,000 mt, which now makes a total of 4.2 mmt of new bean sales to China of the 5.0 mmt they promised to buy.  Once again the bean market blew it off as it was already factored in.  Nothing else has really changed this week as we continue to wait for the massive report on Friday in which they are combining two reports into one.

The markets continue to mark time rather than direction ahead of Friday's USDA report.  The USDA flashed a sale of 2.6 mmt of beans to China and another .3 mmt to unknown this morning.  The bean market shrugged that news off as it seems like these sales were already factored in the market.  These sales extend out into the summer, so the exporter has plenty of time to get them covered which likely limits basis improvement on this purchase.  There is a massive amount of bean length in the country, so don't expect basis to do the work at all this year in my opinion.  Most feel beans are still overpriced as the carryout should be somewhere between 850 million and 1.1 billion on this report.  Not to mention weather in South America is improving, which should limit upside as well.  On the corn side basis continues to improve slowly as weather is the main factor slowing movement to the processor.  Rail bids are holding steady at the moment and are paying a little carry into April.  March futures are stuck between 3.70 and 3.90.  If you are going to work orders for the report that 3.90 area should be your target.  3.50 cash will move corn.

USDA report week is finally among us as they get ready to cram in two months worth of numbers in one report on Friday.  Last Friday it was said that China was back in the market for some beans (up to 5 mmt).  Rumor had it they bought 1 to 1.5 million bushels off the gulf on Friday.  612,000 mt got confirmed this morning to China, which is far from the 1 to 1.5 mmt rumored.  This morning however we see bean bids off the PNW for the summer months as well, so more must have gotten done.  The question remains how much….  The bids are nothing special today, but once again it’s a step in the right direction.  Even if China buys the full 5 mmt rumored they will still be way behind last year’s pace.  Export inspections this morning were solid for beans, but nothing special for corn and wheat.  Corn and beans traded in a fairly tight range again today as we feel like we are going to sit and wait for the report on Friday.  China is on Holiday all week, so news should be limited on that front. 

Beans gapped higher overnight on Chinese optimism as Vice Premier Liu said that China would buy another 5.0 million tonnes of beans in the near futures.  The early story broke yesterday that said they would buy that amount daily and got the market all stirred up, before a correction came out a few minutes later.  Early indications are that the Chinese bought 1.0 - 1.5 million tonnes of that 5.0 million today and it was all out of the Gulf, spread out for the spring and summer months.  CIF bids perked up on that news about a dime.  That dime was still not enough to make them competitive with the processor, but it was a step in the right direction.  It is said that China and the US are going to have further meetings in the beginning of Feb to try and come up with something before the March 1 deadline.  The bad news is China goes on Holiday all next week, so I would doubt we see any more sales to them until that is over.  The other bit of support in beans today could have been that FC Stone dropped their Brazil production estimate to 112.2 mmt vs 116.3 previously.  Corn was strictly a follower today on hopes they may buy some corn too.  Not a real impressive close for either corn or beans today after we only finished up 2 cents.

Month end likely caused a reversal and took away yesterday's gains.  New out of China/US trade talks were minimal except for a few Trump Tweets.  President Trump tweeted earlier in the day that he will meet with Chinese top negotiators later this afternoon in the Oval Office, but no final deal will be made until he meets with President Xi in the near future to discuss and agree on long standing and more difficult points.  A few other tweets mentioned how good things were going, but the money didn't seem to care today.  We had our first export sales announcement in quite some time as these were the week of December 20th.  Sales were good for both corn and beans.  Corn was pegged at 1.7 mmt, which puts us at 50.3% of the USDA forecast vs a 52.1% 5 year average.  Bean sales were 2.4 mmt, which puts us at 57.9% of the USDA forecast vs a 79.2% 5 year average.  For the month corn was up 1 and beans were up 20.  Lets see if can get some new month buying tomorrow to make up for some of this month end selling today. 

Trade talks resume with China today.  Yesterday it seemed like there was no optimism and today it feels like there could be.  One never knows and this flip flop feeling is getting old.  Corn was the leader today up 4 cents as we continue to bounce around in a fairly tight range.  Corn movement remains slow, which typically means either the board has to move higher or basis need to improve.  So far we are seeing a little of both happen.  3.40 cash will move some more corn and 3.50 cash will move A LOT of corn.  It’s pretty much that simple and the market knows it.  Flat price is the key.  If the board wants to continue to move higher it will take the pressure off of basis.  This might be a good time to be watching basis as it could be a good opportunity in corn.  Nothing has changed for bean new since I wrote my comments yesterday.  The USDA announced their schedule for catching us up on export sales and it sounds like many traders are disappointed with it.  They are going to release some every week to catch us up over the next month, rather than announcing some daily to catch us up to speed in a week.   Nothing comes easy these days!

The market seemed a little pressured by more China and US tensions as there were a series of US arrests/indictments against Chinese firm Huawei executives overnight.  These arrests are likely not going to be helpful to trade talks that begin again this week.  It almost feels like some type of black mail tactic….but that’s just my opinion.  We had our first USDA flash sale this morning since Dec 21st due to the shutdown.  That was 138,000 tonnes of corn to South Korea, but it sounds like it optional origin.  Long term forecasts for Brazil continue to cause additional pressure as well as the pattern looks to be changing back to more normal.  Abiove lowered their Brazil bean production estimate to 117.9 million tonnes from 120.9 million in December.  The Corn and Soybean Advisor lowered their Brazilian production estimate to 114.0 million.  The Corn and Soybean Advisor also slightly cut their Argentine production estimate to 55.0 million.  Keep in mind that is 17.0 million tonnes better than last year's 37.8 million.  Glacial plains will be closed tomorrow (Wednesday 1/30) due to the cold temps.  Craig will be in the Murdock office to handle all your market needs.  320-875-2811 ext. 108.

The government is back up and running for now.  They are supposed to release a schedule today on how they will catch up on export sales.  As far as the Jan report that we missed, it sounds like that information will be released with the Feb 8^th crop report.  That will be a massive report with a lot of information to consume.  Brazil and Argentina weather had the markets pulling back some this morning as it looks like they will get good rains over the next 6-10 days in some of their dryer areas.  Nothing is new on the China and US situation, but there are more meetings scheduled mid-week.  Corn export inspections were about 35 million bushels as we remain well ahead of pace.  Bean export inspections were 34 million bushels as we remain way behind pace.   Corn basis seems to be perking up on the domestic end as movement is very slow due to the cold weather.  It seems to be strictly a domestic trend as export basis is mostly flat.  This domestic push could be a good short term opportunity if you plan to move some grain in the next couple weeks.

It sounds like we have a short term deal in place to open the government fully for three 3 weeks until a Feb 15th deadline as discussions on border security resumes.  Nothing had been decided on the USDA grain reports they owe us.  Beans were the leader today as some want to give credit to the government news.  Others want to talk about continued dryness areas in Brazil as some pictures show up on twitter.  Nothing has really changed all week as far as the grain markets go.  For the week corn was down 1 an beans were unchanged.

The grain markets feel like they could just as well be closed.  We trade tight ranges daily as of late with little to no new information to trade.  We are finally starting to see more acreage guesses for next year's crop.  Today Farmers Futures were out with their estimates and pegged corn at 90.3 million and beans at 84.6 million.  That’s 2.8 million total acres less planted of corn and bean than IEG Vantage had yesterday.  That seems low to me, but there is a lot of unknowns at the moment.  Nothing new on trade news other that Secretary Wilbur Ross stating that the "US is miles and miles from a trade resolution with China."  Go figure….

The grain markets remain very quiet as of late.  News is light and the government shutdown doesn't help that.  FSA offices will reopen tomorrow 1/24.  The two sides of government remain at a standstill and unwilling to budge on their positions to end the shutdown.  There will be another vote (2 separate bills) in the Senate tomorrow, but neither sound like they will pass.  So yet again we will just move forward with what we have and that isn't much.  Export sales and final yields will remain a guess as the uncertainty levels continue to rise.  Today we had IEG Vantage put out their 2019 planted acreage guess.  They guessed corn at 91.5 million acres and beans at 86.2 million acres.  Last year we had corn at 89.1 and beans at 89.1.  I mentioned before that we could see less of a switch due to input expense, bank pressure, and increased spring field work due to the late fall.  This seems like a very fair estimate to me.  Trade remains range bound as we sit very close to some strong support on corn.  The 50 day moving average is at 3.78 and the 100 day moving average is at 3.775.  Those levels will be important watch and hopefully stay above.  Beans remain anyone’s as we continue to trade headlines.  Fresh movement remains light in both commodities.

Overnight markets were non-eventful as the market was searching for confirmation on yesterday’s trade rumors.  Today we had a similar scenario play out as we had yesterday.  The start to the morning it was very quiet trading around unchanged and then a new headline broke and we moved higher very quickly.  The headline read "China is said to offer path to eliminate U.S. trade imbalance."  The next headline read "trillions of dollars worth of stuff over 6 years is the offer."  As you can see those headlines leave things pretty wide open for interpretation.  The other part that makes me wonder about these headlines is that this supposedly happened at an earlier trade meeting in Beijing, so why didn't we hear about it then?  As we know, even if it is true there is no timeline to a resolution.  So we continue to move forward with a limited government and a ton of unknowns in this market.  And just to make it more complicated, this is a three day weekend in the grain markets.  The markets will re-open Monday night at 7:00 PM.  If you would like to put an order in we will be here on Monday.

About 11:30 this afternoon the grain markets caught a bid and rallied a nickel in corn and 15 cents in beans in a matter of minutes.  Everyone was looking for reasons why and rumor has it that China bought some US wheat.  The only problem is nobody wants to confirm it.  The rumored seller has so far denied the sale.  As this gets hashed out it will be interesting to see if we can hold it tomorrow ahead of a 3-day weekend in the markets.  There are no markets on Monday due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day.  The markets will reopen on Monday night at 7:00.  Once the markets close tomorrow, we will no longer purchase grain.  If you would like to put an order in for Monday night you may.  Glacial Plains will be open on Monday.  Dec corn is back over 4.00, so if you are yet to start selling for next year be thinking about it.  My recommendation remains 20-30% of next year’s crop.  Insurance levels get set in Feb, so the 20-30% sale will cover what insurance does not.  Corn basis felt like it wanted to improve yesterday, but this rally put a hold on that.  Bean basis feels very weak as the buyers are strictly the crushers and they are getting covered up with no competition to buy.

Sounds like there was Korean corn business overnight and the March/April rail bids finally showed some improvement today.  That is the first sign of new corn business in quite some time.  Obviously nothing is confirmed as the government is still on shutdown.  If you are someone in need of the FSA office it sounds like they will open for limited business on the 17th, 18th and 22nd.  Corn traded higher most of the day up 1-3 cents as we recover some of yesterday's losses.  Beans traded both sides of unchanged up 6-7 this morning and down 2 by late morning and finishing up a penny at the close.  Range bound trade continues and will continue for some time.  Nothing fresh on trade news, but there is still some optimism going forward.

Not a good day in the grain markets as corn was down 7 closing under the first level of support, which was the 3.72 low from December 26th.  The next level of support is now the November low of 3.67 March futures.  Bean support is at 8.80 March futures, which is another 13 cents lower.  I have stressed a couple times that these markets have a tendency to make the carry disappear as the front futures month expires and today Beans made a classic example of that.  Yesterday Jan beans expired at 8.90 3/4 and today the March futures finished at 8.93.  Corn and beans had exact same pattern last year, which is why I can't stress enough that you need to be paying attention to Dec 2019 futures.  Anything over 4.00 is a great place to start and take some risk off the table because if we wait until spring/summer it might be much harder to achieve that kind of level as the carries erode.  Be careful and be sure to keep looking forward for opportunities.  Movement remains slow as nearby basis has relaxed and the board doesn't have anyone too excited.  Nothing new on China and nothing new on the Govt. Shutdown, so we move forward with limited news. 

Finally it is USDA report day…..oh wait never mind.  The government is still on the fritz with no end in sight.  Very quiet today as the markets chop back and forth and recover some of yesterday's losses.  All signs point to China being done buying US soybeans as the PNW bid once again backs away.  Now we hurry up and wait to see if they show up for corn.  Rail corn bids picked up slightly yesterday for March and April, which could be some type of new business that arrived.  Without government there are no sale announcements.  I am not sure I have ever seen a grain market with so many uncertainties at one time.  If anyone has I would be surprised, so on the bright side you are witnessing something special.  Make sure you are paying attention to not just this year’s crop, but also next year.  We are in the midst of some tough times in Ag.  Anything over 4.00 Dec should secure a profit on corn, so don't fall asleep and let a repeat of last year happen.  Beans are anyone’s guess as we are 100% reliant on a Chinese trade deal.  Carryout is going to remain high either way this year, so I would be surprised if we can reach 10.00 Nov futures at any point this year.  If 8.50-8.65 cash work I would start making some sales when we get back there.

Nothing bullish came out of the Chinese meeting and the bean marked puked nearly half of its 40 cent rally in one day as we continue to trade headlines.  Yesterday I mentioned that AgRural lowered their Brazil production estimate down to 116.9 mmt.  Today Agroconsult cut their Brazil estimate down to 117.6 mmt vs 122.8 previous.  Conab was also out this morning dropping their estimate down to 118.8 mmt vs 120.1 mmt previous.  The last USDA numbers we were trading were 122 mmt.  Today was a poor technical soybean close as we broke through 9.10 March support.  The next level of support is at the 50 day moving average of 9.04, but if we violate that level support is at 8.91.  Just a reminder that there will be NO monthly report tomorrow as the government is still on shutdown. 

There is some news that is supposed to come out tonight sometime on the China and US trade talk highlights.  Early indications are optimistic, but if you had a dollar for every time you heard that since the trade war started you would have a few bucks in your wallet.  I am hearing there will be more talks before the Chinese lunar New Year on Feb 2nd.  Brazil weather remains a big watch as the forecast looks to improve in the next couple weeks, but how much damage has already happened?  Reuters reported that Brazil production could be closer to 116.9 mmt vs the 121.4 mmt previous estimate.  That would be slightly less than last year, but Argentina has a much better crop this year over last year.  Corn news has been almost non-existent besides the hopes that China shows up to buy as has been rumored for a while now.  Ethanol plants continue to slow down and shutdown in places due to negative margins.  We remain range bound between 3.88 and 3.73 March futures and for now I don't see anything that would make that change.  We need some new business to show up as basis looks slightly sluggish and farmer movement remains light. 

Rumor has it that China bought up to 15 cargoes of beans after news broke yesterday that they bought up to 6 cargoes.  There is a big difference between 6 and 15, but with the government shutdown we will not hear any confirmation for a while.  I find it very interesting how every time China has bought beans the market has turned lower on the news.  We have bought the rumor and sold the fact on every sale.  Will we see the same thing happen if a China trade deal gets done?  I think so, considering a trade deal will not have a quick fix on the 955 million carryout. We are stuck with that or larger until we have an issue that threatens production.  Brazil is still concerned about moisture and hot temperatures.  There was some scattered rain yesterday, but not enough to ease concerns at the moment.  Corn and beans both traded slightly higher in the early morning trade, but broke lower around the 9:00 hour. 

China is back in the market for US beans today as they buy what could be their final round for now. Bids on the PNW have not really showed any change today, so it will be interesting to see what they actually bought.  It makes things very interesting with the government shutdown and no export sales announcements.  Just another wrinkle in what is already a very hard bean market to understand.  Otherwise it was pretty quiet day in the grain markets.  China and US talks are happening so we hurry up and wait for news to break as always.

Corn finished the day strong as we settled slightly above the 50 day moving average for the first time since Dec 20th.  Dec 2019 corn also gets back above 4.00 on the move.  Make sure you are paying attention to Dec 19 as it might be a good place to get started for next years crop.  By locking in the 4.00 futures on an HTA and rolling the futures out to May or July you could potentially secure yourself 3.60 - 3.75 cash on next years bushels.  I would imagine that starts to pencil out fairly nicely at this point and might be a good place to start.  Remember the worry in corn lies on the March planting intentions report as we are projecting a shift from bean acres to corn.  I don't how big the shift will be, but it is very important going forward.  On the bean side nothing has really changed.  Brazil weather remains the watch as production estimates begin to drop.  The one thing we need to remember there is Argentina will have a better crop than last year.  There is nothing new on the China front today. 

Beans were higher on continued China optimism and also Brazil weather. There are some experts starting to lower the Brazil production estimate even further due to the warm temps.  They did receive some rain, but was it enough with all the heat?  I think the high of 9.41 March futures from Dec 12th is safe at this point.  I wouldn't try and get too bullish on beans at any point unless exports pick up and I don't see that happening any time soon.  BNSF freight is starting to tell us that we didn't get near as many beans done as hoped with China.  It also helps there have been early winter troubles thus far, but that can change.  Corn traded both sides of unchanged throughout the day.  There was little news in that market over the holiday besides more negative ethanol news.  We are scheduled to have a USDA on Jan 11th, but that is now in question due to the government shutdown.  We will have to see how that plays out.

Today was another very quiet day of trade to end the year as both corn and beans traded with little to no change after trading both sides throughout the day.   Then partial government shutdown continues to have some nervous as we sit without sales announcements.  Is China buying those tremendous amounts of beans that Trump told us was going to happen?  Basis and futures are not acting like it.  For the year corn futures are down 18 cents and bean futures are down 93 cents.  Not that you need more proof that trade deals do matter.  Hopefully we can have a better New Year on the trade front.

Have a good New Year and Drive Safe with this wonderful weather!

Yesterday I mentioned that China was back buying US beans and today's USDA morning wire confirmed that.  They indicated 1.2 mmt got done yesterday.  Rumors were once indicating more than that, so we saw another day of buy the rumor sell the facts take place.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more announcements to come, but I still don’t feel they are going to meet our expectations.  With rail freight moving higher we have more than priced ourselves out of the market already.  For those of you that think Chinese bean business are going to catch us up to expected USDA pace, I would recommend thinking twice about that.  Even if the rumors are correct and they have bought nearly 5 mmt thus far (again that’s a rumor) we need 13 to 14 mmt total to catch up on export pace.  That’s not going to happen…..  The Chinese will likely buy just enough beans to comply with what they told Mr. Trump and then go right back to buying from SA in Feb when their new crop hits the market.  Be careful here if you think beans need to move higher.  Either way you look at it carryout is still going to be 955 million minimum.  That’s not good when fundamentals kick back in gear at some point.

Corn and beans were higher today on news that China was back in the market for Soybeans. I am hearing rumor of another 2 mmt.  We are getting closer the 5 mmt mark, but we still have a ways to go to get to 10 - 13 mmt.  There is still plenty of chatter about corn sales to China, but I still have not heard of that happening.  Beans are getting a little support from Dryness in central Brazil and wet weather in Argentina.  Temperatures in Brazil have been hot as well, which is causing greater concern.  There is rain in the forecast, so we will have to see how that plays out.  Corn feels like it wants to break out higher, but we have been stuck in a 5 cent range since December 3rd.  If news breaks that China buys US corn it could be the just the push we need to break out.  3.90 March will be the first resistance and then 4.00 after that.  There are a couple rumors of ethanol plants being shut down due to negative margins.  Green Plains in Fergus Falls is one of them as they mention they could be idle until spring.  Hopefully that trend doesn't continue.

Soybeans bounced slightly higher today as last week took its toll on them.  Last week news broke that China was buying US beans and we had a classic buy the rumor, sell the fact reaction.  There continues to be hope that the Chinese will buy more US beans, but so far it’s not enough.  Weekly bean export inspections were 35 million vs 66 last year.  We are currently at 557 million vs 951 million last year.  The USDA goal is 1,900 vs 2,129 last year.  As you can see if China doesn't buy 10-13 mmt we are going to be behind USDA expectations and the 955 million carryout is not shrinking.  The only way we can lower our carryout at this point is to either export more or drop the final yield on coming reports.  Corn was slightly lower today as we also wait for the news to break that China bought US Corn.  Export inspections on corn were at 35 million vs 25 last year.  We are currently at 629 million vs 364 last year.  The USDA goal is 2.450 billion vs 4.438 last year.  Most feel corn exports could be 25-60 million bushels above expectations.  Not having a bean program this fall has gotten corn exports off to an impressive start.  Now we just need some new business to keep it moving.

The USDA announced a sale this morning of 1.13 mmt of beans to China, which was disappointing to the market. Export sales were in line with expectations on corn, beans and wheat.  We continue to hear rumors there will be more bean sales to China, but we are on a wait and see basis.  So far we continue to be in a buy the rumor, sell the fact environment.  Things are going to stay volatile for a while in soybeans.  Corn managed to hang near unchanged today because Chicago wheat was up a dime. 

Today is the day that China showed up to buy beans. Mr. Trump said they were going to start to buy "tremendous" amounts of beans starting right away.  So far I am hearing a report of 2.8 mmt.  That is equal to 40 cargoes (30 PNW and 10 Gulf).   It is good to see bean bids off the PNW, but here is what I see happening.  Rail freight continues to tick higher up 200 bucks or so today, which equates to a 5 cent increase per bushel.  Barge freight explodes higher, which more than offsets the basis gain in the gulf.  With higher rail and barge freight it makes corn exports less competitive going forward for new business.  It will be very interesting to see where bids and freight level out in the coming days.  Beans made a new high for the move today as we traded up to 9.28 Jan futures.  Then we had a buy the rumor, sell the fact type trade as we settled back some into the close.  Bean movement picked up near the highs, but slowed as we faded back.  Basis feels weaker as beans are moving.  Processor bids in our area are still the leader as the PNW is still 20 cents shy of those levels.  Even with China business, if the board decides to rally more, basis will back off.  We have 955 million reasons for that.  China needs to buy 13.0 mmt just to keep carryout at 955. 

The USDA report was today and there were very little changes. Corn yield was unchanged at 178.9 bpa, which left production unchanged as well at 14.626 billion bushels.  The US carryout jumped slightly higher up 45 million as ethanol use dropped slightly.  World corn carryout was pegged at 308.8 mmt vs 307.51 mmt in November.  Bean yield was also left unchanged at 52.1 bpa, which also left the production unchanged at 4.6 billion bushels.  US bean carryout was also left alone at 955 million.  World bean carryout increased 3.22 mmt from November making it 115.3 mmt.  This report was pretty much a yawner as you could call neutral to slightly bearish.  Both markets traded both sides of unchanged throughout the day.  The most interesting tidbit today was that the USDA backed off on their previous farm aid comments and now says that the 2nd payment will be delayed in hopes that China buys US beans in the near future.  Beans jumped about a nickel on that news as many want to think its close.  Not good for those who already assumed the payment was coming as times are tight.  Nothing is a guarantee in politics as we all know.

Nothing changed over the weekend on the China trade deal, so the market relaxed heading into tomorrow’s USDA report. We had a huge corn sale show up on the wire this morning to Mexico, but the market ignored it as routine business.  The USDA also showed up with a late bean sale announcement to Unknown, which some would like to believe is China.  The market ignored that as well.  If China shows up to buy the 5 - 10 mmt of beans like they keep talking about it still doesn't solve our problem.  10 mmt equates to 367 million bushel.  Don't get me wrong we need the business and it helps, but it doesn't stop the ship from sinking it just slows the leak.  The other story that broke today was that Abiove added 5 mmt to Brazil’s initial bean 2018 stocks.  That just adds to the massive world supply if they are right.  South American weather continues to be good as many experts move their production numbers higher as well.  Wall Street had another wild day as the Dow traded down 500 points at one point and might just finish the day higher. 

Hearing rumblings today that China may have gave the go ahead to buy US beans, but nothing has been confirmed and there still has been no mention of recent business.  There is also rumor that they will buy some corn, but that part I need to see to believe.   It will be interesting to what news breaks on that over the weekend, so watch Sunday night markets.  Exports were very good for corn, beans, and wheat this week which is always good to see.   Tuesday in the next USDA monthly report, so be sure to keep an eye on that.  For the week corn was up 8 and beans were up 22.  So far the bin doors remain locked at these levels, but we are getting closer for the next round to move.  3.40 to 3.50 cash corn will see a big chunk of movement.  If we see those levels I would expect basis to back off slightly as we have already started to stall out.   Ethanol plants gained some coverage this week and the pushes have relaxed.  Rail freight looks to be getting more expensive starting in Jan as winter takes its toll.  If China does indeed buy beans from the US it will also have a small impact in rail freight as demand for cars picks up steam.  We are definitely in some interesting times!  Have a good weekend.

Today was a very quiet day in the grain markets as the markets might as well have been closed along with the other markets for the President H.W. Bush funeral today.  The market continues to search for clues on progress between China and US trade as every source seems to vary.  One minute things sound promising and the next minute says it’s not going to happen at all.  I fully expect that to continue as we still have 87 days of negotiations left unless of course they extend that timeframe.  Mr Trump says he is a tariff man and threatens and continues to stress that we either end up with a "real deal" or no deal at all.  So the game of deal or no deal continues and will do so for a while yet.  Basis has continued to improve, but has stalled out.  There are many sources that stated the Chinese are going to buy beans from the US in the near future, but nothing has been seen or confirmed yet that I know of.  PNW bean values are still in the tank, which would imply no business has occurred as of yet.  The next USDA report is on the 11th, so I would expect little action until then unless of course something changes with the trade deal.

DJ Trump and China Called a Truce in the Trade War. Now What? -- Barrons.com

By Ben Levisohn

The G-20 meeting is over, and there's good news and bad news for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and other stock market indexes.

Here's the good news following a Saturday night dinner between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires: The U.S. said it won't impose 25% tariffs on Chinese goods in January, as it had planned, and China agreed to buy more U.S. agricultural goods. It's essentially a cease-fire, for now, in the trade war between the world's two largest economies.

The bad news is that this deal opened a 90-day window to negotiate a deal not just on trade but also on protecting intellectual property, ending the forced transfer of technology, and more. If those negotiations aren't successful, then it's tariff time.

It's unclear how the market will react to the news, given last week's massive rally. The S&P 500's 4.8% rise -- its biggest in about seven years -- was, in part, a response to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish tone. But it was also a bet on a deal being reached. The market, however, is forward-looking, and so the question will become whether the typical sell-the-news reaction kicks in. We'll know more when trading in Australia and Asia opens later on Sunday.

But one thing is clear -- the stakes in the negotiations between the U.S. and China are huge. Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, notes that if talks fail, tariffs would rise on the $200 billion of goods already on the receiving end, and would be imposed on the remaining $250 billion that are, so far, penalty-free. "This is very much a temporary pause," he writes.

And a high-stakes one at that.

Here is an addition story if you would like to read more.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/01/trump-china-xi-jinping-trade-1004954

Beans were the leader today as a rather large sale was announced to unknown this morning. There were a couple people throwing the idea around that it could be China getting its fingers into the market before the meetings and a potential beginnings of a deal at the G20 summit meetings this weekend.  It will be interesting to see if this rally can hold into the weekend.  Resistance is at 9.00 Jan futures, which has held a couple different times in the past month.  The next levels would be 9.06 and 9.20 if can manage to break the 9.00 barrier.  Corn managed to follow beans up 4 cents on the day.  Farmer selling picked up today on both corn and beans.  There were also quite a few orders getting put in slightly above the market.  Don't be afraid to have an order working if you have a price in mind.  This market could stay wild for a bit and you never know what can happen.  Spreads on corn have surprisingly broke wider as of late touching some their widest levels heading into December expiration.  For those of you with HTA's or basis contracts be paying attention. 

Beans had a small rally today gaining back some of yesterday's losses. I continue to get mixed signals on any trade progress with China, but that is legit considering nobody knows what is going to happen.  There just isn't anything else happening at the moment that can get the markets attention.  Carryout’s are comfortable to say the least.  Some want to talk about the 6% of beans that remain in the field, which likely was part of the reason for the rally today.  Corn and bean basis seems to be willing to continue to do the work to get grain moving, as the futures are stuck looking at the longer term situation. 

The grain markets took a beating today as world tensions escalate. Over the weekend Russia and Ukraine had some military tensions and that got the market a little nervous.  Overall trade tensions with the US and China are no better as we approach the g20 meeting the end of the week.  Optimism on any progress seems less than it did last week.  I continue to expect heavy volatility in beans over the next couple weeks.  We remain in the same headline market we have been in for months.  Export inspections were good for both corn and beans, but it didn’t seem to help anything today.  Weather in SA remains nearly ideal as there are some monster production numbers being thrown around the market.  It is still early and things can change, but for now the bears are in control.  Dec corn is getting set to expire and a move near the lows would not be friendly long term.  3.54 looks like early support, 3.43 is the low.  I would hope we don't see the lows anytime soon, but be careful here.  Jan Bean support is at 8.44 with the low at 8.26.  Meal put in a new low today at 300.7, but still managed to hold above 300 bucks.

Weekend developments were backing away from Trumps trade comments on China from Thursday. There were multiple reports that the Vice President said we were still a long way from a deal with China and that we need to continue to be firm with our approach, which is basically the completely opposite of Trumps comments.  Pence even mentioned at one point the possibility of a military threat, which got the markets worried.  This political news coupled with a great start to the South American crop had both beans and the stock market getting smoked today.  Beans finished the day down about 20 cents and the Dow is down over 500 points.  Weekly export inspections had corn at 797 mmt at the low end of expectations.  Bean inspections were at the high end of expectations at 1.055 mmt.   For those of you with corn HTA's and Basis Contracts under the Dec futures, we need to either get them priced or rolled by the 29th.  Spreads have been coming in slightly as of late as corn movement has slowed.  With exports solid for corn, I would consider rolling corn hedges out to the July at anything better than 25 cents.  Movement could be slow as the bin doors get locked.

Beans were higher this morning on more trade optimism and yet another headline. China has delivered a written response to U.S. demands for wide-ranging trade reforms, three U.S. government sources said on Wednesday, a move that could trigger negotiations to bring an end to a withering trade war between the world's top economies.  Nothing in that statement says they are going to come to an agreement, but I guess it’s a step in the right direction.  NOPA bean crush was an impressive 172.346mb vs estimate of 169.8mb.  We continue to see big jumps with every trade headline almost daily now, so what happens if we actually get a trade deal announced?  Do we sky rocket higher and completely forget about the 955 million bushel carryout?  A trade deal doesn't fix that carryout this year….It would just simply keep it from going over a billion if exports continue to disappoint.  The longer we wait for a deal to take place the bigger the carryout gets.  There is no quick fix to our massive US supply.  An interesting note is that the funds are still currently short over 100k bean contracts.  Do they cover if a trade deal occurs?  That’s where we could can the initial pop to the markets.  For now bean resistance is at 9.00 Jan. 

Today was another quiet day in the grains. Last night the harvest progress report showed less progress than anticipated.  Corn was estimated at 84% vs 76% last week and 94% average.  Beans were estimated at 88% vs 83% last week and 93% average.  The beans left in the field are going to be slow to finish as most elevators are not ready to take them until they have finished drying corn.  The USDA announced a couple more sales this morning, 212,000 mt of corn to Mexico and 148,000 mt of beans to Unknown.   Basis continues to show improvement daily on both corn and beans.  Yesterday I mentioned that beans feel a bit heavy, but continued optimism on trade deals have them higher again today.   Be careful as trade will continue to be volatile at times in Soybeans.  

Grains took a downward spin today as wheat was the leader yesterday up 17 cents, was the dog today down 12 in Chicago. That most likely pulled corn lower as well.  Export inspections were solid for both corn and beans on the week.  Corn was at 1.137 mmt and beans were at 1.302 mmt, both at the high end of expectations.  Tonight we will have an updated USDA harvest progress report.  Corn should be around 86-88% complete and beans 90-91%.  Early strength in beans today was due to continued headlines about US and China talks about meetings at the G-20 summit.  We have beaten this to death for nearly two weeks now, but the market has high hopes we can put together the framework for an agreement at this meeting.  South American planting continues ahead of pace and they are off to a great start.  It is amazing to me that beans can continue to hang in here at these levels.  We have not yet traded that last report of 955 million carryout in my opinion.  It feels like Soybean Meal might be holding us in here as it just doesn’t want to break the $300 barrier.  Crude oil is the big story today down 5 bucks as it continues its freefall from $76 highs on October 3^rd to today’s level of $55. 

Today was a very interesting report to say the least. At first blush the corn report looked friendly as they dropped the US yield and carryout both.  They put the yield at 178.9 bpa vs 180.7 bpa in Oct.  US carryout was trimmed to 1.736 billion bushels vs 1.813 billion in Oct.  Those numbers alone got the market excited and traded up 7-8 cents on the initial blush.   Then the computer traders got to the world carryout number and found a shocker!  The USDA nearly doubled the world carryout at 307.5 million tonnes vs 159.35 in Oct.  The big change was due to a revision of Chinese stocks back to 2007, which added 149 mmt.  You can read that in however you want, but there are a lot of opinions out here that are trying to down play that change, thus is why the markets likely came back to up a penny on the day.  On the bean side of things it is tough to find a friendly number there no matter how you look at it.  Bean yield was at 52.1 bpa vs 53.1 in Oct.  US carryout is now estimated 955 million vs 885 in Oct.  We are approaching 1 billion very quickly and will likely make it there as exports continue to disappoint.  The World carryout was at 112.08 million tonnes vs 110.04 in Oct.

The elections are out of the way for another 2 year and had very little impact on the markets. With the Democrats taking back over the majority in the house it allowed the US Dollar to take a breather.  Overall that should be a good sign for exports if that trend continues.  Tomorrow is USDA report day, which takes place at 11:00 AM.  It feels like this market is waiting for the news as today was non-eventful.  Hurry up and wait.

The Midterm elections take place tomorrow and the results could have an impact on the grain markets. The main impacts of the elections would be to the US Dollar, stocks and interest rates.  The direction of the US dollar could impact US grain export demand.   It will also be interesting to see if anything new breaks about China talks tomorrow to maybe help swing the direction of some voters.  Harvest progress will be out tonight as corn is estimated 77% and beans are estimated 84% complete.  Weekly export inspections were solid for corn at 49 million bushels vs 27 last week and 18 last year.  Season to date export are near 390 million vs 218 last year.  Bean inspections were not near as impressive at 45 million vs 48 last week and 92 last year.  Season to date exports are near 315 vs 546 last year.  The window for big new crop export numbers are closing in fast.  We run the risk on Thursday's report of a big drop in bean exports, which would add to an already big carryout.  Brazil and Argentina saw good rains over the past two weeks as they have a great start going to the growing season.  This could continue to weigh on prices going forward.

We had a pretty quiet morning until Mr. Trump decided to send out a Tweet. "Just had a long and very good conversation with President Xi Jinping of China. We talked about many subjects, with a heavy emphasis on Trade.  Those discussions are moving along nicely with meetings being scheduled at the G-20 in Argentina. Also had good discussion on North Korea!"  Don't forget the elections are only 5 days away!  It never hurts to sweeten the pot a little bit!  An hour later we saw a response from Lee Saks on Twitter that said "China's XI says both sides should push for trade solution that is mutually acceptable.  China's XI also says nature of US-China trade relations is mutually beneficial."  Those two tweets are all it took to move the bean market 30-35 cents.  Corn and wheat was strictly a follower.  Export sales were nothing special once again on corn and beans.  Wheat and meal were good.

Meal was on the verge of making a new low, but buy money showed up and managed to pull both meal and beans higher. Month end money could have been the cause as we tested key support.  For the month corn was up 7 and beans were down 6.  The most impressive component to me is how much basis improved through the month of October, when we are normally at our weakest levels.  Corn basis improved 12 cents and bean basis improved 14 cents.  Like I mentioned yesterday, I think the end users are already seeing the signs of how hard it is going to be to pry these bushels from the producers once the bin doors are locked.  Export sales will be out tomorrow.  Informa will be out on Friday with their updated Nov 8th crop report estimates.  Have a great Halloween!!!

Harvest progress was out last night and showed corn 63% harvested vs 52% last year and 63% average. Beans were estimated 72% harvested vs 81% last year and 81% average.  Weather looks good for the next couple days throughout the corn belt, but then things looks a little sketchy.  The European model shows 5-10 inches of snow for parts of IA and MN the middle of next week.  Yes I did say snow…I hope they are wrong.  Last night Trump stated that if there is no progress made with China in their November talks he has additional tariffs ready to implement.  That got the bean market a little excited again.  Nov beans are at their lowest level since mid-September with the 8.12 Nov low in its sights.  The US dollar continues to soar matching the August 15th high, which is also putting some pressure on both corn and bean futures.  Basis seems to be improving on both corn and beans as the end user starts to think about longer term coverage.  Once the bin doors are locked it is going to be hard to get the producer to become a willing seller.

Corn managed to gain back most of yesterday's losses as it follows the wheat market higher. Wheat caught a bid this morning as we got some surprise exports overnight.  Chicago wheat rallied 18 cents on the day.  The sale was good to see as it helps catch wheat exports up since we were a long ways behind.  Next week’s weather looks to dry out again as we can get harvest back underway.  Other news today was very quiet.  For the week corn was unchanged and beans were down 11 cents.  Have a good weekend!

Export sales were out this morning and were all below expectations once again. On Tuesday I mentioned that Ukraine and Brazil are now both cheaper than US origin corn and it looks as though basis levels on the export market took notice yesterday.  We need to get cheaper to get back in the game and that is exactly what we are trying to do the last couple days.  Corn export sales totaled 14 million bushel.  We remain ahead of pace for the time being, but cancellations are rumored and that could change things in a hurry.  Bean exports were a very poor 8 million bushel.  We are already seeing China and Unknown cancellations and they will likely continue.  We are right at support for corn at 3.60 Dec, but bean support is not for another 30 cents at 8.12 Nov futures. 

Corn basis perks up a touch as corn demand remains solid. It's not often we can say that as harvest is in full swing.  The US is finally getting some competition in the world corn market as Brazil becomes more aggressive.   Ukraine corn is also cheaper at the moment.  Last night’s harvest progress as of October 21st had corn at 49% vs last week at 39% and last year at 37%.  Bean progress improved to 53%, compared to 38% last week and a 5 year average of 69%.  Next week should show some major progress as well as the forecast for the Corn Belt looks decent into next week.  Outside markets got smoked today with the DOW over 500 points at one point, but climbed back some into the close.  Crude oil finished down over 4%, down over 3 bucks.  This morning it felt like those markets were going to lean on the grains as well, but for the most part they held in there pretty good.  Mr. Trump said he is going to meet with China's, Xi at next month’s G-20.  That headline might have helped beans climb back today.

Grains were slightly higher, which was impressive considering how productive of a harvest weekend we just went through. Weather continues to look good for the next 5 days.  The harvest progress report will be out tonight as both corn and beans are expected to be 50-55% complete.  Weekly export inspections were decent for both corn and beans this week.  Beans were at 42 million vs 95 last year.  Season to date soybean inspections are at 218 million vs last year at 362.  We continue to lose ground on USDA expectations.  We will see that impact on one of these upcoming reports.  I know I have mentioned this before, but without a China deal we could have exports closer to 1,800 rather than the USDA prediction of 2,060.  That would be 260 million that could potentially be added to the carryout.  Corn inspections were a solid 37 million vs last year at 25.  Season to date corn exports are near 308 million vs 179 last year.  There also continues to be some talk that the USDA could be too high on their corn production estimates.  Yields are all over the board and lack consistency.  This could be offering some support.

Corn and beans took a beating today as harvest picks up steam. The weather continues to look good in the 10 day forecast, which will allow beans to dry out and get harvested.  The markets this morning were not down quite as much until export sales came out and were very disappointing.  Corn and bean sales were both less than half of the low end of the range of estimates.  It’s hard to believe we could be that far off, since the people doing the estimates are the ones exporting the grain.  I would expect the pressure to continue as harvest ramps up and catches up to the average pace very quickly.  Support in corn is at 3.70 Dec and 8.47 in Nov beans (another 16 cents).  I wouldn't be surprised if we test that level sooner than later.  Crude oil also continues its plunge lower down 2.06 yesterday and another 1.00 today.  That could be causing some of the weakness in beans today as well.  For those of you with HTA's, be paying attention to the spreads.  Bean HTA's are near their widest levels and need to be rolled by the 29th of October.  Corn deadlines are not until the end of November, so we still have time.

Today was another very impressive close for the grain markets. Overnight markets looked as though we wanted to be weaker on a better forecast, but that didn't last long this morning.  Beans were the leader up 24 cents as meal was up over 10 bucks.  Quality concerns continue to be the issue along with more harvest delays as Nebraska, Iowa and S MN seen snow yesterday again.  9.00 Nov futures could be the next target.  NOPA released their September crush figures at 160.779 mb vs an average guess of 157.4 mb.  That is up 18% from last year.  US bean harvest is projected to be 40% complete on this afternoons update.  Corn also continues to look strong as you look at the charts.  3.82 Dec should be the first set of light resistance, then we have strong resistance at 3.87 - 3.88.  US corn harvest is projected to be 40% complete on tonight’s update.  Corn demand continues to be impressive, but with the forecast allowing for some major progress the next couple weeks I wouldn't be surprised to see basis back off a touch throughout the week.  For those of you that need to price HTA's this might be a good time.

Today we saw some continued follow thru off of yesterday's move higher following the report. There continues to be more and more talk of quality issues in certain areas as we struggle to get this crop in the bin.   Export sales were out this morning.  Corn sales were on the low end of expectations, but still over 1.0 mmt and on pace.  Bean sales were not good, but Trump mentioned he was going to meet with China in November and that once again trumped everything else.  The debate remains to be how long China can go without US beans, but for now they are hanging tough.   Weather continues to look dry for the next couple weeks as the combines seem ready to switch to corn until late next week waiting for the beans to dry out.  The next two weeks at the elevator are going to be interesting, so please be patient.  We are basically going to be trying to handle 4 commodities at same time (wet beans, dry beans, wet corn and dry corn).  We will do our best to keep everything rolling as smooth as possible; as we know everyone is in a hurry with the weather delay. 

The report came out not as bearish as expected by most experts. When everyone jumps on the same ship in the grain markets that is usually what happens.  Corn yield was listed at 180.7 bpa vs 181.3 in Sept and average trade guess of 181.8.  US carryout was pegged at 1.813 billion bushel vs 1.774 in Sept and average trade guess of 1.919.  World corn carryout is at 159.35 million tonnes vs 157.03 in Sept and average trade guess of 159.3.  I think most people were caught off guard by the drop in yield on this report, which again helped keep the carryout from creeping higher.  On the bean side of things, they put the yield at 53.1 vs 52.8 in Sept and average trade guess of 53.3.  US carryout was pegged at 885 million vs 845 in Sept and average trade guess of 898.  This is still not friendly by any means.  World bean carryout is at 110.04 million tonnes vs 108.26 in Sept and average trade guess of 109.53.  Beans are going to have a much tougher time finding a reason to rally.  Most feel the bean crop has deteriorated some since Oct. 1st, which is when this data for this report took place.  Too much rain and snow are to blame causing sprout damage and pods to break open.   Between the declining crop conditions and the harvest delay this could be our shot at a short term rally.

The markets were trading both sides of unchanged this morning before Mr. Trump spoke and said “China is not ready yet for a deal on trade, says a couple meetings with China have been cancelled.” When that news broke beans slid backwards trading down as much as a dime.  Export inspections were as expected on the day for corn and beans.  Corn demand continues to be impressive, while beans are going to start feeling the effects of no China in the coming weeks.  The end of Oct is when we normally ramp up shipments to China.  Crop progress will be out tonight rather than last night as it was delayed.  The updated weather forecast was not much different today.  It looks like we just need to get through tomorrow night and the rain should be done.  The 6-10 day still looks cool, but the extended forecast looks slightly warmer and dryer.  If it is right we will take it!   It is time for a pattern change!

There was not much news today as the market continues to wait for the weather to turn, so we can get harvest underway again. The trade is estimating corn and beans about 31-35% harvested at this point.  We will have the new progress report this afternoon.  The forecast looks to change and dry out after Wednesday, so hopefully they are correct this time.  We have the next USDA report on Thursday at 11:00 AM.  Most are expecting corn and bean carryout’s to get bigger on this report.  If they do increase the carryout and we couple that with a drying forecast we could see a little set back in the grain markets.  We are at 6 week highs, so that could contribute to a pull back as well.  The one thing we do have going for us is demand remains strong.  We knew corn demand had potential to be really good this year and so far it has not disappointed.  Bean demand has also been good thus far, but if we don't get some Chinese business back it won't be friendly long term. 

Corn made a new high for the move overnight by 1/2 cent at 3.695. Beans traded slightly higher most of the night, but when meal popped around the noon hour beans jumped back to their high for the move as well at 8.70 Nov futures.  There was a meal sale announced this morning of 134k ton to the Philippines.  Weather remains the biggest concern at the moment as we have a record crop in the fields, but struggle to get it in the bins.  40% of the Midwest corn and soybean area could see 4-8 inches of rain over the next 10 days.  Hopefully the weather man is wrong!  Next Thursday is the next USDA report as they will revise their 2018 crop, US and World Supply and demand.  It will be interesting to see what they place the bean carryout at after they apply the Sept 30th stocks.  Bean demand still isn't looking good as we have been too dependent on China and that relationship is still in question.  Corn demand on the other hand has been great and managed money remains short, which should continue to offer support.  Short term corn resistance is 3.71 and short term bean resistance is at 8.71, both are only a couple cents away.

Grains traded slightly lower today after trading higher on Monday and Tuesday on the news of delayed harvest, Russia export issues, and the new NAFTA deal. Yesterday Russia announced a temporary stoppage to exports and the wheat market bounced higher pulling corn with it.  Today that story stalled out slightly.  We did have a USDA announcement of 230,000 tons of corn to Japan this morning.  Corn and beans both traded up to resistance levels the past couple days and couldn't manage to break  through.  December corn resistance is at 3.70 and November bean resistance is at 8.70.  Harvest weather might be the one thing that could bounce us through those levels.  The next 10 days in the midwest is calling for heavy rains.  Parts of MO and S IA could see 10+ inches in the next 10 days.  I am hearing some chatter about bean quality issues for the first time, as mold and damage become a concern.  We will have to see how that plays out as time passes and harvest is delayed.  Corn demand remains impressive, while beans demand is slow as we are still missing Chinese business.  An interesting note…US beans are estimated to be 50 cents cheaper (after tariffs) than Brazil origin beans into China, but yet they are not buying from us.  Too much RISK!

News broke overnight about a NAFTA 2.0 deal. It sounds like Canada opted in before the midnight deadline.  We finally have some good news in the political game of Deal or No Deal.  The grains popped higher after the 8:30 open and never really looked back.  This NAFTA deal impacts the corn market much more than the bean market, which could be why beans finished 7 cents off the highs.  This NAFTA deal gives the bulls some ammo and also might give the false impression that we could have a deal with China now too.  A China deal is much further away!  Don't fall into that trap.  Export inspections were huge for corn once again this week at 53 million bushel vs last year at 34 million.  Bean inspections were at 22 million vs 33 million last year.  Some feel bean exports could be closer to 1,800 vs the USDA at 2,060.  That would spell disaster folks.  We are already showing a carryout of 845 million, which is light after Friday's stocks report.  If we drop exports another 200 million, we are over 1 billion carryout easily.  Without a trade deal with China beans are still too high at the moment.

The grain markets took a beating after the 11:00 USDA report. This was just a stocks report, so there were only about 3 numbers that mattered.  Corn stocks were pegged at 2.140 billion bushels, which was 130 million more than the average guess.  Bean stocks were listed at 438 million, 37 million more than the average guess.  The USDA also revised last year’s production up 19 million bushel on this report.  So there was nothing friendly on this report.  We had a pretty good rally going for the week, but today wiped all those gains out.  The biggest takeaway on this report for corn is that US carryout isn't shrinking as fast year on year.  The other bearish note is that we could have a large acres shift to corn next year if the bean market doesn't recover.  Beans on the other hand are working on doubling our carryout in a single year.  Applying these numbers to an already big carryout we are approaching 900 million very quickly.  Beans still feel overpriced at these levels and I wouldn't be surprise if we have another test of the lows in soybeans. 

USDA report day is tomorrow. Average guesses have corn stocks at 2.010 billion and beans at 401 million.  As I mentioned before I am not expecting anything major out of this report.  For the week so far corn and beans are both up 8 cents.  Export sales were above expectations for corn and in the range for soybeans.  Meal was the shocker totaling 659,200, which is the largest meal export number since July 2014. It is also near the top 5 largest on record going back to 1999.  Corn has now made a new high for the move 7 days in a row as some price later bushels begin to move ahead of the October 17th deadline.  The 50 day moving average is at 3.68 Dec futures.  That should be the first set of resistance.  The next would be 3.69 1/2, which is the Sept 5th high.  If we manage to break through those levels we have a chance at 3.80 futures.  I think that will tough with harvest at our finger tips, but you never know if the USDA surprises us again.  It seems to me like we are just trying to define a range at the moment.  We just need to decide if its 3.45 - 3.70 or 3.45 - 3.80.  Time will tell.

Finally back in the saddle and trying to get back in the swing of things. The US put more tariffs on China earlier in the week, but that didn't have much effect on the markets this time around.  It sounds like the US is ready to make a deal with Mexico and leave Canada out for now.  The delay in harvest has the markets ticking higher for now along with money flow as we might have gotten cheap enough for now.  Tomorrow we have export sales and Friday we have the Big September Stocks Report.  Will we have any surprises there?  September 1st grain stocks are estimated at 2.010 billion corn and 401 million beans.  I am not expecting much of a surprise on this report, but you never know. 

Not a whole lot of action today as we continue to digest the USDA report from yesterday. Most traders are still shocked by the 181.3 yield, but we are stuck trading it until we get new numbers next month.  Both corn and beans tried to trade higher this morning, but gave way to selling once again.  Corn put in a new Dec futures low at 3.48 3/4.  That doesn't bode well as the Sept contracts are ready to expire on Friday.  It’s never friendly to have a contract expire at its low.  Dec corn has a chance it could trade down to the Sept level after expiration, which is 3.35 futures.  If that is going to happen it will likely be in the near future.  Even with the extra 241 million of production, due to the higher yield, we only raised the carryout 90 million.  Usage is forecasted to be at an all-time high and if we have cheap corn we could still gain more export business.  Corn basis has been getting smoking on the PNW the past week as elevators likely sell corn to make space for beans.  Carries continue to widen on beans and that will likely continue.  We have 845 million reasons why those spreads should get wider.  Trump's tweet that the US is not in a hurry to solve the trade war didn't help anything today.

The USDA throws out a massive surprise and raises the corn yield up 2.9 bushels from 178.4 bpa in August to 181.3 bpa. The highest end of the range of estimates was at 180.0.  I don't think anyone saw this coming and the market reacted quickly down 14 cents.  The December contract low was at 3.50 and we got within a half cent of that level again today.  Just as we thought corn had a decent story going the USDA shoots us in the foot.  The good news is the USDA also jumped up usage and exports to offset some of the gains, so the carryout came in at 1.774 billion.  That still isn't a real bearish carryout as long as the higher usage holds true.  Cheap prices should bring more demand.  On the bean side of the report there was no real surprises. They estimated bean yield at 52.8 bpa vs an average trade guess of 52.4.  That is up 1.2 bpa from their August estimate.  The USDA lowered the carry in from last year 35 million bushel and increased crush 10 million to offset some of the production gains, but still ended up with a new record carryout of 845 million bushel.  Beans traded lower most of the morning and likely would have post report, but we had another headline break that the US was going to China to continue trade talks, so we actually finished higher on the day.  We continue to trade headlines in this game of Deal or No Deal. 

Tomorrow is report day. We have been patiently waiting for this day for about a week now with nothing new to trade.  Today the USDA announced their crop ratings as they were delayed yesterday.  Corn was at 68% good/excellent up 1% from last week.  Beans were listed at 68% good/excellent up 2% from last week.  Beans spent most of the day trading lower, but when the ratings came out at noon we went another leg lower.  The other thing that didn't help beans today was we had a cancellation on the wire this morning of 192,000 mt from Unknown.  The market never likes to see that.  We did have another corn sale announced this morning to South Korea.  Corn is 35% mature vs 22% last week and 21% average.  That’s a pretty impressive stat and this week of warm weather is really going to push it along as well.  There are some early beans already being combined and so far the yields look pretty good. 

Weekly export inspections were out this morning and corn was lower than expected, but beans were better than expected. We did have another bean sale to Unknown on the wire this morning as well, which is a welcome sight.  Nothing new on US/China trade over the weekend as Trump continues to mention another set of tariffs looming.  Beans traded higher this morning on some news that China had frost damage to their soybean crop last night and China bean futures were up over 5%.  We will have to wait and see what the extent of that damage is.  The USDA report is on Wednesday and we hurry up and wait for that.  General thoughts are that the bean yield improves slightly.  Bean exports could drop slightly.  Both would in turn make the carryout bigger.  The average guess on the bean carryout is currently 830 vs 785 million in August.  Corn yields are projected near unchanged to down a freckle.  Everything else should stay about the same on corn leaving the estimated carryout at 1.639 billion bushels vs 1.684 billion in August. 

Informa was out today and in line with the USDA and Pro Farmer Tour. They put corn at 178.8 bpa vs 176.0 previously.  They also jumped beans up to 52.9 vs 50.0 previously.  Nothing to shocking there as the corn and bean market didn't bat an eye and seen very small movements in either direction today.  Meal was the leader once again today up 4 bucks as we try and sort through these new Argentina taxes.  Wheat has been the real dog again down another 8 cents today making it just over 30 cents lower for the week.  Hearing many areas with massive amounts of rain over the past couple days.  Some areas in Iowa and Wisconsin got over 10 inches and some of those areas just got 5-10 inches a couple weeks ago as well.  Some Wisconsin schools had to delay the start two weeks because of road washouts.  This might start to eventually bring yield and production down some, but time will tell.  Early yield reports seem to be all over the board, so be careful on what you hear and read.  It’s too early to draw any conclusions.

News broke overnight that Russia did not impose export duty or limit wheat exports at their meeting, which was previously rumored last week. This caused wheat to puke overnight, which initially drug corn and beans lower this morning.  Then we had news break late morning that Argentina was going to implement a floating export tax.  This was seen as bullish to US exports.  Meal seemed to be the leader after this story broke as we were up 4 bucks on the day.  Corn finished near the highs on the day up 3 cents and beans even finished slightly on the plus side.  The next USDA report is on Sept. 12th.  Most feel the bean carryout should be increased once again as they will likely increase yield closer to the Pro Tour 53 bushel yield.  Will we see carryout near 900 million?  It could happen depending on what they do to exports.  Corn on the other hand might have seen its highest yield for the year on the August report.  We could see the corn yield unchanged to a bit lower, which could be slightly friendly to the carryout.  Corn export inspections were solid once again at 52 million bushel.  Beans and wheat were on the low end of the range of estimates.

Wheat broke out higher today after the 54 cent break I was talking about yesterday. It was rumored this morning that Russia was going to limit wheat exports.  This is the second story in two weeks of a similar variety, but the previous story was not true.  We continue to see big volatile swings in wheat and beans with every new headline.  Yesterday we talked about wheat dragging the corn market lower, but today corn didn't want to follow it higher.  We traded 3 cents higher at one point, but couldn't hold the gains.  Expiring basis contracts and P/L deadlines have likely been keeping heavy pressure on the corn futures.  That will continue into tomorrow, but after tomorrow they should be cleaned up.  Maybe we can put the lows in close to these levels.  I did a little fact hunting today on soybeans.  When looking at the continuous bean chart, we are at the lowest point we have been since December 2008 when beans traded down to 7.76 futures.  Maybe that is our objective in soybeans?

GPC is not taking any more wheat for the remainder of the year.

Pro Farmer numbers continue to weigh on the markets, especially soybeans at 53.0 bpa. Yesterday we had good news that Mexico and the US are close to a deal, but China and the US still don't seem close.  Wheat has been leaking lower everyday as we are now 54 cents off the highs since the 17th of August.  That is also taking its toll as it bleeds over into the corn market.  Just to show how big of an effect this trade war is having on the markets let’s do a little explaining.  It’s not only beans that are going to feel the pressure.  Next year the early guess for 2019 planted acres has corn at 90.8 mil acres vs 89.1 this year.  Bean acres are estimated at 87.5 million vs 89.6 this year.  Wheat is estimated 48.3 million vs 47.8 this year.  In order to get the US soybean carryout back down to a respectable 400 million we would need to plant 9 million less bean acres.  Who is going to want to plant 7.00 cash beans?  The answer is fairly obvious, nobody.  Those 9 million acres would be added to corn and wheat and we don't need any extra of that either if we want prices to recover.  There is a major storm brewing and we are just seeing the beginning effects.

Corn and beans were both very ugly once again this morning with corn down 5-6 and beans down 17 at one point this morning. Mid-morning news broke that the US and Mexico were in agreement on a new Nafta deal, with only a couple small details to iron out.  Now the hope is that Canada is willing to come back to the table and jump in as well.  There is some good trade news finally.  China and the US continue to bump heads as last week’s meetings were not productive.  It sounds like China says they follow all the trade rules, but the rest of the world disagrees.  Export inspections were very good this week for corn and beans.  This may have also helped bring back the markets this morning.  Beans ratings were up 1% at 66% and corn ratings were unchanged at 68%.  The details on the new farm aid program were released today, google it and check out the details.  For those of you with basis contracts we need to be out of them by Wednesday. 

Pro farmer came out with their final yield calculations today and they didn't disappoint. They indicated corn at 177.3 vs USDA at 178.4.  They found a few troubled areas in Southern MN and N IA, but the rest of the country more than made up for them.  If we equated their yield back to what the USDA gave us in August the corn carryout would be right a 1.6 billion bushel.  This continues to solidify my thoughts that corn has the best story going long term.  If we can continue to improve corn exports we have a shot to get that carryout under 1.5 billion.  The one thing that could detour us from that happening is if we don't solve this trade war, we will increase corn acres considerably next year since nobody will want to plant beans at these prices.  The bean yield the Pro Farmer tour gave us is very troubling.  They came up with a yield of 53.0 bpa vs the USDA at 51.6.  Folks this would not be a good thing and it is going to add to an already HUGE problem.  The USDA told us on the 10th of August that the bean carryout estimate was 785 million bushel.  If they are correct about the yield we just added another 97 million, so we are up to 882 million.  NOT GOOD.  On a side note, the details of the farm aid plan are supposed to be released Monday.  That is only a band aid on a massive wound.

Pro Farmer yield talks continue to put pressure on the markets. Yesterday they pegged Illinois corn yield at 192.63 vs 181.95 average.  Pod counts were 1,328.91 vs 3 year average of 1,146.76.  Tonight we will get MN and Iowa yields.  MN yields should be lower than expected considering they are only checking southern MN and that has been the problem area with too much moisture.  Lacks of any progress in China/US talks are not helping beans as well today.  For the week, corn is down 17 cents and beans are down 38 cents.  Bean basis continues to puke in the gulf and that is our only export business at the moment, hearing it’s down 10-15 cents today.  Local bean basis just continues to follow.  We have a problem on our hands if we don't get something resolved and get it resolved soon. 

Yields out of the Pro Farmer tour continue to impress and that seemed to weigh on the markets this afternoon. Last nights results had Indiana at 182.3 bpa up from 171.2 last year and 3 year tour average of 162.5.  They had Indiana pod counts at 1,311.9 up from 1,168.8 last year and a 3 year average of 1,146.8.  The Nebraska corn yield was pegged at 179.2 bpa up from 165.4 last year and also better than the 3 year average of 163.1.  Pod counts in Nebraska were at 1,299.1 up from 1,131 last year and also up from the 3 year average 1,191.4.  Tonight we should have Illinois results, but early indications were good as well although there seems to be a lot of variability.  We won't have Iowa and MN results until tomorrow night.  Last year their final results for the nation were posted just after the markets closed on Friday.  I am assuming this year will be similar.  

The Free Price Later program has officially ended at all locations effective tonight. New bushels delivered on Price Later will be at 5 cents a month with a pricing deadline of 10/10/2019.

Crop conditions saw a slight decline yesterday with corn down 2% at 68% good excellent and beans down 1% at 65% good excellent. That should have been friendly to the market, but late yesterday we had a couple bearish things happen.  First, Mr. Trump said in an interview that he didn't think anything positive would come out of this week’s talks with China.  He was not optimistic about any type of near term solution.  So a week ago we were told we had a road map to a solution and now this week our road map has a bunch of detours.  Nothing is ever easy in politics.  The other bearish thing yesterday was the yields coming from the Pro Farmer Tour.  They came up with a final corn yield in Ohio of 179.57 bpa vs a 5 year average of 153.98 bpa.  They also had South Dakota at a final corn yield of 178.01 bpa vs a 5 year average of 154.56 bpa.  Bean pod counts were also good with Ohio at 1,248.2 pods vs 1,095.77 average.  SD had pod counts at 1,024.72 vs 975.05 average.  It appears the bean potential is also there.  Both states would indicate record yields at this point.  Tonight they will post Nebraska and Indiana figures. 

Beans started the overnight trade up about a dime out of the gate and traded that way much of the night. The only reason we opened up a dime were the thoughts of productive US and China talks this week.  Rains moved through the Midwest overnight and throughout the day and that was enough to get beans back closer to unchanged.  The Pro Farmer tour starts today and early numbers look close to USDA expectations in Ohio and Nebraska.  Export inspections were ok with corn at 43 million bushel and beans at 23 million bushel for the week.  Crop ratings will be out tonight.  Corn is expected to be down 1% and beans close to unchanged for the week.  Spreads continue to weaken as both corn and bean carryouts are comfortable.  Harvest pressure should allow them to weaken a little more.  For those of you with Sept basis contracts we need to be out of them by August 30th. 

Overnight action started out weaker and we continued that way much of the day. Wheat was the exception as a story broke about 5 am that the Russian ag minister met with exporters and stated they will look at or consider curbing exports when they reach 30 mmt.  What that actually means or how it will be implemented leaves that statement pretty open, but it got the wheat market excited and trading up about 20 cents in Chicago.  Corn was reluctant to follow that action today.  Beans traded down 15 at one point today, but yet another headline about China managed to pull us closer to unchanged on the day.  The headline was "U.S., China plot road map to resolve trade dispute by November".  So the meetings that are to take place next week are basically to pave a path to make this happen.  Does that mean we will delay the other tariffs from going into effect Sept. 1?  It doesn't say that, but that would be a good step in the right direction.  At some point we need to salvage our relationship to keep future potential business a possibility.

Overnight news broke that China is sending its 2nd level delegation to the US to resume trade talks. Rumor has it that will take place early next week.  It is truly amazing how fast we trade headlines at the moment.  Beans end up rallying 28 cents on the day on the news of this single meeting.  The odds of a final solution in this meeting would be very slim, but tiny progress is a step in the right direction.  Exports sales were good again especially for the new crop time slot.  We had another bean sale announced on the wire this morning for 154,000 tonnes of beans to Mexico. 

There was not much action in the grain markets today as corn finished fractions lower and beans lost yesterday's gains down a dime. Beans had some positive news with the NOPA bean crush reporting record numbers at 167.7 million bushels vs estimates of 161.4 million.  Gulf soybean bids crashed today down over a dime as harvest is underway in the delta.  Beans spreads continue to widen telling both the elevator and the producer to store as many as possible.  A 785 million bushel carryout is to blame.  Celeres is looking for Brazilian farmers to plant 89.5 million acres of soybeans in 2018, up 3% from the 86.7 million in 2017.  They anticipate a production of 119.6 mmt, which would be a new record.  The USDA announced a sale of corn this morning to Unknown, 55k for this year and 60k for next year.  There have been quite a few sales announced as of late.  Cheap grain will do that.  There are starting to be more signs of corn business for the OND time slot as I mentioned could happen as the bean program is pathetic.  For those of you with basis contracts under the September contract, we are down to two weeks to get those priced.  Give me a call with questions.

Crop ratings on Monday night were down 1% on both corn and beans. Corn is now at 70% good/excellent, up 8% from last year and 7% vs the 10 year average.  Bean ratings are at 66% good/excellent, up 7% vs last year and 5% vs the 10 year average.  After last year we know ratings are hard to count on as we were showing low good/excellent ratings, but received a very good final yield.  We will have to see what this year brings.  There is growing concern in ND and N MN about deteriorating crop conditions.  I had one source tell me that beans in the teens are possible as they were hot and dry over the weekend and it is taking a major toll.  The forecast looks to continue dry for that area as well.  The 6-10 forecast looks to have very good rainfall potential in Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, S Iowa, Illinois and Indiana as some places could see 2 inch rains.  It was good to see the corn charts reverse as we are now a dime off the lows.  3.85 Dec looks to be the first real resistance.  Beans were led by meal up about 8 bucks after Argentina made an announcement that they were going to delay tax rebates and deductions to save nearly $2 billion over the next two years as they struggle to meet their deficit targets.  Meal was affected by that announcement.

Not much news today besides the trade war continues with China as they announced they will match the 16 billion in tariffs. We are a day closer to the USDA report on Friday as it could be an important one for corn.  I am not sure anything can help beans at the moment.   Corn basis continues to improve slightly on the rail as I feel more business is being done and will get done to take the place of the non-existent bean program.  Bean basis is only going to get worse without a trade deal.  -112 might look bad, but I think we get worse before it gets better.  Rail programs on beans are looking to move east, which could make rail performance a real problem.  The railroad is built to run to the PNW not south and east.  The biggest question on this report will be what the USDA does with the yield.  How will that affect the carryouts and the spreads?  Like I said yesterday the corn story looks the most rewarding at the moment.  Under the right scenario corn carryout could get pretty tight.

Corn ratings were down 1% yesterday as expected at 71% good/excellent. Bean ratings were down 3% at 67%, which was slightly more than expected.  These ratings had the markets working higher last night.  Wheat was also up strong overnight as the EU headlines continue to fuel the markets.  Corn has been following wheat as it works higher and when wheat broke today, corn did as well.  Beans were the only commodity to hold gains today.  There are many headlines floating around about Chinese rumors, but the nothing has changed.  The first story mentioned China importing 10 mt less soybeans this year as they look for alternative protein sources.  The next story says China is going to have to resume purchases from the US in the coming weeks.  That story fails to mention how many "weeks" away that will take place!  Friday is the next USDA report.  What will they do with the yields?  Last month they left yields unchanged, so most feel there is room to work them higher on this report.  Corn seems to have the best story going for at the moment.  Beans remain to be a complete unknown, just take a look at bean basis and you'll see evidence of that.  The good news is that we saw another corn and bean sale get announced this morning.

Wheat was the leader again today as the EU continues to be very hot. It feels like there could be some more room higher as we are about 7 cents below last week’s high and 26 cents from the high in the end of May.  Early signs of the wheat crop locally look light on test weight and poor quality.  Weather over the weekend showed massive amounts of rain in E Iowa and SW Wisconsin, with many places showing 6-10 inches.  Weekly export inspections were better than expected for both corn and beans.  It sounds like we had more corn business get done over the weekend to South Korea.  PNW rail corn basis seems slightly better after the big downward spiral 2 weeks ago.  I think there are more ideas about new crop corn business floating around considering there looks to be no bean market on the PNW.  Trade news over the weekend was null.  Sounds like a NAFTA deal is closer than a China deal for what is worth. 

Grain markets seem to be consolidating at these futures levels. Fear continues that any single Trump tweet can change the markets in an instant as everyone awaits updates on the trade war with China.  Basis has went in the tank as the bean export program is non-existent.  Corn basis has since backed off close to a dime as well, as the big old crop carryout is finally showing its face.  The rail market seems to have got all the corn it needs at the moment to get to new crop as new business has been slow.  Export houses are trying to figure what they are going to be exporting to stay busy throughout harvest.  BNSF rail values have also plummeted as fear lies ahead on the same issue.  We are fulling seeing the effects of the trade war in all aspects.  Lets hope we can get some resolution sooner than later. 

It seems and though corn and beans want to put some weather premium back in the markets. The 2nd week US Midwest forecast looks warm and dry, which could have a negative impact on final corn and bean yields.  C IL and C IN both have chances of rain, so we will have to see how those materialize as well.  We will have an update on crop ratings this afternoon, which are expected to be near unchanged.  Corn export inspections were above the upper end of the range of estimates at 65 million bushels.  Bean inspections were also very good at 27 million bushels.  The markets remain watch on any new tariff talks ahead of the next deadline on August 31st.  Basis looks to be weakening up as old crop is running out of time to move.  As the processor gets coverage for August and September that trend should continue into harvest.  PNW corn basis was off over a nickel last week.  Bean basis is very ugly as the new crop bean program is in question due to the trade wars. 

Everything gapped higher over night as the US and EU meeting yesterday was deemed positive. We told them we would not impose tariffs on them as long as they buy more from the US.  It seems there is a little more optimism that Trump wants to make trade deals sooner than later.  We had corn up 6-7, beans up 20, and wheat up 25 in Minneapolis in the early morning hours, but we couldn't manage to hang onto those gains throughout the day.  Wheat was the leader the last couple days and actually came back and finished lower in Chicago and KC markets.  Corn and beans struggled to finish in the green at the close as well.  It seems and though corn wants to move and will continue to do so as we inch higher.  We had 3.20 cash orders fill overnight.  Bean movement is non-existent as we are 50 cents to a buck from anyone having any interest.  Corn basis seems to be weakening up slightly as old crop is running out of time to move.  Exports remain strong on corn, but the market can only handle so much movement.  If there is 20% of old crop left to move, the market can't possibly handle it all in the next 60 days.

Wheat was the leader today up over 30 cents in all Minneapolis, Chicago, and Kansas City markets. News broke this morning that the first leg of the wheat tour found less than expected yields in North Dakota.  Crop ratings had the tour thinking they were going to see excellent yields.  Corn followed along and finished the day up 7 cents.  3.80 Dec looks to be the next level of resistance.  3.86 Dec is the 50 day moving average.  Beans did not want to follow the trend higher as we struggled to finish in green figures.  Trade issues and tariffs remain the watch and with the announcement yesterday of a 12 billion dollar stimulus that doesn’t look promising to resolve anything with China anytime soon.  What does this stimulus package mean for the producer?  I think it’s too early to know for sure.  I have seen a source say 50 cents per bushel and I have seen another say 1.00 per bushel for 2018 produced beans.  Either way you look at it, it is just a band aid.  Export sales will be out tomorrow morning.  Corn did move today as we are running out of time on old crop if we need to move it before harvest.  There are some producers looking out to Dec 2019 futures at 4.00 as well….just a thought.

Wheat wanted to lead the way higher again today as there has been talk of increasing EU imports, which would draw down the Russian surplus. Spring wheat also saw some short covering on talks of a lower Canadian crop.  Weekly US export inspections were solid for both corn and beans.  Corn was at 52 million bushel vs last year at 39 million.  Bean inspections were near 26 million bushel vs last year at 23 million.  China cancelled 165 mt of US 2018/2019 soybean sales today.  That was rumored to be Sunrise filing bankruptcy this weekend.  Overall the trade is still waiting for more trade information.  As I mentioned last week the NAFTA deal with Mexico sounds a lot more promising than any type of deal with China.  This would be friendly to the corn market.  Beans seem to have a lot of resistance overhead as the USDA lowered Chinese imports and also lowered US exports on the last report.  Crop ratings will be out this afternoon, which should set the tone for tomorrow’s trade.

Believe it or not yesterday was the first time Nov beans have closed higher two days in a row since May 22nd and 23rd. Today marks the third day in a row.   On May 23^rd Nov beans closed at 10.48.  Today they are $1.90 lower.  It is not all due to tariffs, but that is the key part.  There are a lot of people that think this crop is in the bin with record yields, but we are a long way from that.  Beans in the US are at a major discount to Brazil, so it will be interesting who steps up and fills the Chinese void.  Will we have other countries come to table to buy US beans?  Corn is similar in that the US is also the cheapest feed grain in the world.  I would expect corn export business to continue to be heavy.  One interesting thing to think about….If the US exporters don't have any bean business for new crop, do they bring on more corn business to replace it?  They can't just sit with their export houses empty.  This could potentially make corn exports even bigger than what the USDA is posting, which would add to a friendly scenario for corn in the future.   Export sales will be out tomorrow morning.

Crop ratings were out yesterday afternoon and had both corn and beans lower for the week. Corn was listed at 72% Good/Excellent vs 75% last week.  Beans were at 69% Good/Excellent vs 71% last week.  This allowed both commodities to trade higher out of the gate overnight and both managed to hang onto those gains throughout the day.  There was some talk today that China has been a big seller of US soybean futures on this price decline (who would have guessed) and now they feel that China may be ready to open further negotiations.  Did we get low enough to make China want to buy US beans again?  Can the two parties agree on a reasonable deal?  Time will tell, but I still don't expect a quick fix.  The August 31st tariff deadline would be a good target date to get any deals made.  Weather remains non-threatening for much of the corn belt.  The SW areas are too dry and the NW areas are too wet.  The two week forecast continues to look like it will help the crops. 

Nov beans made another low for the move today down to 8.26. That level managed to hold today, but if that level is broke the next level of support would be the 8.00 mark.  Yesterday's report was very bearish for beans, so after finishing unchanged yesterday it was not surprising to see us trade it today.  Corn futures seem to want to follow beans lower at the moment even though yesterday's report was friendly.  The path of least resistance today is still lower.  July corn futures expired today nearly matching the low from last summer.  Corn still has a friendly picture painted long term, but until some trade deals are struck we are stuck.  Weather continues to look good for the most part as well, which is causing resistance.  Have a good weekend!

The report was friendly for corn as the USDA decided not to change the corn yield and left it alone at 174.0 bpa. The average trade guess on yield was 174.9 bpa.   The 18/19 corn carryout was pegged at 1.552 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.712.  In order to get to that number exports were raised for both old and new crop as they expect corn business to remain stout.  Most feel there is plenty of room for the yield to work higher, but it is still only July 12th.  Without any weather issues I think this will be the lowest carryout we see printed.  The world corn carryout for 18/19 was at 152 million tonnes vs an average guess of 156.27.  Bean numbers were not friendly, but there are also a lot more unknowns at the moment.  The USDA left the bean yield unchanged as well at 48.5 bpa.  18/19 bean carryout jumped to 580 million vs an average guess of 471.  The big change was dropping US exports by 250 million.  Can we gain some of that back if a trade deal is struck?  World bean 18/19 carryout was down slightly at 87.0 vs an average guess of 88.15 million tonnes.  Beans are truly in the hands of politics and until this is resolved it’s going to be a tough road ahead.

Overnight news broke that Mr. Trump was going to put another 200 billion in tariffs on China that would start 9/1/18. We have heard rumblings about this for quite some time, but it sounds like he is moving forward with it.  China announced once again that they would retaliate.  The trade war continues as both counties dig in their heels.  Tomorrow is the USDA report at 11:00.  Can we get some help?  It will be interesting to see what the USDA wants to do on exports.  Will they lower them due to the trade war or leave them alone and assume things will shake out?  Yield will go up on this report, but how much?  The new acres from June 29th will be used to imply new and higher carryouts, but how big will they be?  I wouldn't be surprised if we trade this report for about 5 minutes just like last month and go right back to political trade. 

The 2 week weather forecast continues to look non-threatening as rains look normal and temps looks slightly above normal. One private group was out today estimating the corn yield at 178 bpa vs the current USDA at 174 bpa.  That same group had the bean yield at 51 bpa vs the USDA at 48.5 bpa.  With the current weather forecast some experts believe corn yield could be closer to 180 bpa.  If that is realized carryout would be closer to 2.0 billion bushels vs the current USDA carryout of 1.577 billion using the 174 bpa.  That is the main statistic holding this corn market in check, along with the political side of things of course.  The bean carryout calculation works much the same.  A 51 bpa would imply that the bean carryout would be a touch over 550 million vs the current June USDA carryout of 385 million.  These carryout numbers that I am implying include the raised acres from the June 29th report.  We will have an updated USDA number on Thursday at 11:00 AM.  Some areas want to talk about too much moisture, but the overall market doesn't seem to care at the moment as the entire belt seems to be looking good at the moment besides a few isolated areas.

Tariffs went into effect on China last night at midnight. Overnight grain markets were very quiet trading both sides of unchanged.  Corn export sales were poor and under the lowest end of the estimates.  Bean export sales were good at the high end of the estimates.  Around the 9:00 hour buying showed up in the markets as we had a "sell the rumor, buy the fact" type reaction on the tariffs.  Maybe we finally got cheap enough.  Make sure you remember we are in the middle of a holiday week, so volume was lighter than normal.  It will be interesting to see if we can continue this bounce on Monday.  Do we feel safer now that the tariffs are in effect?  Are we safe now and things can't get worse politically?  I am not willing to wager my money on that.  I do feel this trade war will play itself out, but the question remains how long will it last?  The fact of the matter is we are still very competitive in the world market at the moment.  China will need our beans at some point as Brazil cannot keep up with their needs. 

The grain markets opened at 8:30 this morning after the holiday and corn traded as much as a nickel higher for the first half hour of the trade before backing off once again and finishing near unchanged. Wheat was the leader up 15 in Chicago, which was likely the main reason for pulling corn higher early as well.  Beans had another poor effort as the tariff deadline with China is tomorrow.  Every indication is that the tariffs will go into effect.  The new weather models look slightly warmer, but nothing threatening at this point.  Informa was out this morning with their updated yield guess and raised both corn and bean yields.  They put corn at 176 bpa vs 174.5 previously.  They raised bean yield as well to 49.8 bpa vs 49.5 previously.  Informa moved their corn production estimate up to 14.392 billion bushel vs the USDA at 14.040.  That would be an additional 352 million bushel.  Informa's bean production estimate was 4.425 billion bushel vs the USDA at 4.280, which is also an additional 145 million.  Those numbers are not friendly, but we are still only in the first week of July.  Keep an eye on the tariff deadlines for tomorrow as that will likely decided what direction we go.

Mondays have been ugly as of late and that continues today. Corn made a new low for the move today as we broke 3.60 Dec corn.  Beans are within a nickel of doing the same.  Weather remains good throughout the Corn Belt as more rain fell over the weekend and temperatures are non-threatening at the moment.  We are not starring down the July 6th tariff deadlines, which is this Friday.  Will they be able to renegotiate before the deadline to avoid this situation?  Seems unlikely at this point.  Corn and bean export inspections were very good once again this week.  Cheap grain will do that.  Crop ratings will be out this afternoon as corn and beans are both expected to be down 1%. 

Today was report day and it turned into a pretty boring affair. We seemed to have found the 1.5 million acres we were short in the March report.  Corn was pegged at 89.1 million up just over a million from the March report.  The average trade guess was at 88.56.  Bean acres were also higher than the March estimate of 88.98 million.  They came in this go around at 89.6 million up 600k acres.  The average trade guess was 89.69.  No real shockers but it won't help corn rally anytime soon.  Corn and bean stocks were pretty much a non-event as they were both very close to the average guesses.  Corn stocks were at 5.306 billion and bean stocks were 1.222 billion.  The good news is corn got back everything it lost in the last 15 minutes yesterday.  I would assume we were higher on month end profit taking and position squaring.  June was not a good month for the grain markets to say the least.  For the month Dec corn was down about 42 cents.  Nov Beans were down a massive $1.54.  Weather and politics remain the watch now with the July 6th tariff deadline fast approaching.  Have a good weekend!

Today was a very poor close heading into one of the biggest USDA reports of the year. Corn and beans treaded water most of the day sticking a couple cents from unchanged either direction, but failed to hold around the 1:00 hour.  Corn and beans finished down 7 on the day.  Was it position squaring ahead of first notice day?  Was it the funds building their shorts ahead of the report?  Will we see month end profit taking and bounce tomorrow after the report?  The funds have a lot of money in their recent shorts, so that scenario is possible.  Did some type of bearish news break at 1:00 or maybe something got leaked ahead of the report.  Exports were solid once again for corn and beans this morning and New Crop sales were also better than expected.  Acres are expected to be larger tomorrow than what we got from the USDA in March, so maybe that is why we continue to lean on these markets.  3.60 Dec is the low we put in on 6/19/2018, it will be interesting to see if that level can hold tomorrow.  The November bean low is down at 8.64, which was put in that same day.  Weather heats up for a few days, but the ridge we were watching looks to break down mid-July.

Corn and beans tried to trade higher much of the morning, but once again couldn't hold onto any gains. There is starting to be more people talking about the warm temps moving in for the next two weeks.  There will be areas starting to pollinate during that time and that could become an issue.  Like I mentioned yesterday for now most areas are welcoming the heat, but when we see triple degree temps it takes a lot of moisture.  Most maps are showing below normal precip as well during this period.  Friday is the major crop report, but politics continue to rule the market as we are not trading fundamentals as this point.  Tomorrow is the deadline on July basis contracts, so we need to do something with them by 1:15 tomorrow.  Please give me a call and let me know what you would like to do. 

Warm temps are expected to move back into the Corn Belt over the next couple days. Most areas welcome the heat as moisture has been abundant to say the least.  Will those temps stick around as we move into the pollination stages?  If so, it should limit the downside in corn at these levels.  Corn ratings were down 1% last night at 77% good excellent.  Bean ratings were unchanged at 73% good excellent.  Nothing has changed between the US and China as the trade waits for some type of news to break before the July 6th tariff deadline.   Don't forget about the updated acres and stocks report this Friday.  For those of you with basis contracts in the July we need to have them either priced or rolled by the close of the markets on Thursday at 1:20.  Please give me a call and we can discuss our options. 

Markets are down hard today on escalating trade war tensions between the US and China. The Trump administration is said to be considering curbing Chinese investments in US industries involved in robotics, new energy vehicles, and aerospace citing it could be a threat to economic and national security. However, Secretary Mnuchin stated this morning that the considerations would be applied to all countries. July 6th remains the date for the first $34 billion of the initial $50 billion in tariffs to go into effect.  Nothing was done over the weekend to help ease tensions, so most feel as though this is really going to happen.  Weather conditions remain near ideal over the Corn Belt as more rain fell in most places over the weekend.  Updated crop ratings will be out this afternoon and are expected to be unchanged.  Corn had another good inspections number this morning near the top end of trade guesses as we inch into record levels.  Bean inspections were in the middle of the range.  The big USDA report is on Friday, but it feels like politics are over ruling everything at the moment. 

Weekly US exports were less than expected for both corn and beans today. Nothing has changed for news on the US vs China trade war, so we continue to chop sideways with beans taking the biggest hit once again.  Basis feels like it wants to firm now that cash movement has nearly shut off completely.  Processors are beginning to feel the pain as well.  Weather continues to look good (too much rain in areas if anything).  There are a couple weather forecasts that want to put in a ridge starting the last couple days of June, but time will tell on that.  There is not major concern today considering most areas would welcome the warm dry weather at the moment.  As long as it doesn't last too long of course! 

Uncertainty over US and China continue to rule the grain markets keeping volumes down and price direction an unknown. It all seems to be in political hands and that is never a fun thing.  Bloomberg reported today that Trump may soon announce a new NAFTA trade deal, which would be a great step in the right direction.  As far as for US and China, it all depends if the tariffs get imposed on the July 6th deadline.  Experts predict corn near 3.00 Dec futures and beans near 8.00 Nov futures if those tariffs do indeed get imposed.  If they do not get imposed those same experts think corn futures could get back to 4.20 Dec futures and beans to 10.00 Nov futures.  That is a massive price swing hanging in political hands if they are correct.  Weather continues to be good over almost the entire corn belt with too much rain being an issue if anything.  The grain markets always trades the rain makes grain mentality whether too much is an issue or not.  Seed dealers in central Illinois are predicting that the majority of corn in that area could be pollinating by July 4th.  We will have export sales out in the morning.

So much for Turnaround Tuesday! Overnight, news broke that the US was planning to put more tariffs into effect on China as the trade war talks continue.  At this point we need to keep in mind that is just "talks".  The talks overnight were that the US was going to put a 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of goods.  Just when we thought things couldn't get any worse….they did.  Corn traded as much as 15 lower making new lows with every tick before battling back and even traded higher at one point.  Beans were very ugly this morning as everyone was in complete panic mode.  Beans traded down 66 cents at one point before also battling back and finishing down 20 cents.  Maybe we finally hit a bottom, but any way you look at it is not good.  I mentioned before we would continue to see massive volatility as we continue trade war talks, but I didn't see this one coming.  How cheap can we get?  We had a 7 in front of cash beans today at one point.  The US is now the cheapest source of corn and beans in the world, but if we cannot get along with anyone for trade it’s not going to solve anything.  Updated crop ratings had corn at 78% good/excellent up 1% from last week.  Last year was at 67%.  The bean rating was at 73% down 1% from last week.  Last year was at 67%.

Same story different day today as rains fell over the weekend throughout much of the corn belt and there is talks of trade wars. Funds have been massive sellers as of late as money moves to sidelines with too many unknowns.  Funds have made a quick turnaround on their long positions as they are now long only 30k corn and are short 50k beans.  Export inspections were very solid for both corn and beans this morning as both were well over expectations.  Dec 18 corn took out the Aug 2016 low of 3.7625 today.  Some feel the current crop could be a record corn yield of 180+ bpa.  This coupled with a possible Mexico trade war has tensions continuing.  The 6-10 forecast suggests normal temps and normal precip.  The 8-14 day calls for normal to above temps and normal precip.  Beans broke below the 9.00 July futures level this morning and traded down nearly a dime before almost instantly bouncing back to green figures.  Hopefully we can get some much needed turn around Tuesday action tomorrow.

The markets took yet another leg lower today as the tariffs begin to look like a reality. Corn broke through the pre-report lows this morning and traded with a half cent of the 3.62 July contract low.  That level should be strong support, but the charts look very poor as the funds continue to bail on their length in corn.  Weather also continues to look very good thru June 23rd as we continue to be warm and wet.  Corn exports were very good once again.  Cheap grain will only help that aspect out.  Beans also took another leg lower today as the November futures finished at 9.50, which is a dime off support.  9.40 Nov remains the target for now, which was the low I mentioned yesterday from August, 2017.  Bean exports were better than expected as well, but once again got ignored.  Politics remain the main focus as the deadline looms.  Beans are now $1.22 off the May 29th highs. 

Beans traded lower again matching the July contract lows at 9.35 futures from June 19th, 2017 on thoughts that the US was going to go forward with soybean tariffs. This Friday is the deadline to decide whether or not they go into effect.  Last year we put our lows in in the middle of June and then rallied on a dry weather forecast into the middle of July before the market realized we never had a weather issue.  This year is setting up for a similar pattern, but right now everything seems to be ok.  Beans are now $1.13 off their highs since May 29th.  This should be a level of support on the July contract.  If you look at the November bean chart 9.40 would be the next level of support, which was the low from 8/16/2017.  Corn managed to hang in there pretty well considering beans and wheat took it on the chin.  We even traded slightly higher around 11 AM.  Informa was out this morning on their updated acreage estimate.  They estimated corn at 88.7 million vs the USDA at 88.0.  The bean estimate was at 89.9 million vs the USDA at 89.0.  Those numbers look accurate to me as we seemed to be short acres on the previous USDA report.  The USDA will be out with their update on the 29th.

The USDA monthly report had some good news in store for the corn market, which was a welcome sight. Corn managed to gain back what we lost yesterday. 17/18 US corn carryout is at 2.102 billion bushel vs estimates at 2.166.  18/19 US carryout 1.577 billion bushel vs estimates at 1.663.  World corn 17/18 carryout was at 192.7 mmt vs estimates at 193.39.  World corn 18/19 carryout was at 154.7 mmt vs estimates at 157.56.  The USDA also raised exports another 75 million bushel as well, which was more than expected.  I would expect this report should have allowed us to bottom out on corn futures for the time being.  On the soybean side 17/18 US carryout was 505 million bushel vs estimates at 522.  18/19 US carryout was 385 million vs estimates at 417.  World soybean carryout for 17/18 was placed at 92.5 mmt vs estimates at 91.35.  World soybean carryout for 18/19 was at 87.0 mmt vs estimates at 86.74.  Overall I would say it was a neutral report on soybeans, which could allow for a small bounce after a 90 cent drop. 

Near perfect weather and fund liquidation are to blame for the big sell off in the markets today. The funds have liquidated almost 89k contracts since June 5th and are now long just 113,000 contracts.  The July 18 contract low in corn is 3.62 and we are just 5 cents away from it.  Crop ratings are expected to be 78% good/excellent this afternoon compared to the ten year average of 69%.  Weekly export inspections were solid once again as well for the week.  Beans also took another leg lower as well today finishing down 16 cents.  The bean market is now down 90 cents since May 29th.  Bean ratings are expected to be 75% good/excellent vs a 10 year average of 67%.  With record setting crop ratings and near ideal weather there was just too much pressure to overcome today.  The political issues also continue to hinder the grain markets.  Tomorrow is the June monthly USDA report, maybe some negative info got leaked there as well?

Corn and beans both broke through key support levels this morning and things got very ugly on the charts. Corn closed right near the 200 day moving average on the Dec at 3.97 futures.  Nov Beans broke through the 200 day moving average of 10.07 and never looked back as it blew right through the 10.00 mark as well.  Noon weather maps added rain into the forecast for the entire belt and that is all it took take another leg lower.  US and China are to have another meeting next Tuesday.  We also have the monthly USDA report next Tuesday, so that will be an important day.  The big June crop report is on June 29th.  Export sales on corn were on the high side of expectations at 33 million bushel.  We remain ahead of pace and more business was rumored for August and September the last couple days.  A 30 cent drop in corn will likely bring more buyers as well.  Bean export sales were poor at only 6 million bushel.

More negative political news hit the markets over the weekend as it sounds like the US tariffs are back in play on China. A good start to the growing season is also taking its toll as corn broke below 4.04 Dec futures, which is the 100 day moving average.  The next level of support is the 200 day moving average at 3.97 Dec.  3.97 Dec should be very strong support.  New export corn business has been very slow to come by lately.  We did have a bean sale announced this morning to Mexico.  Export inspections were solid for both corn and beans which was the high end of expectations.  An update on the crop ratings will be out this afternoon.  Corn is expected about unchanged at 79%.  The first bean rating is expected around 74%. 

Corn saw a little bit more selling today ahead of the weekend as wheat was lower once again as well. This corn crop looks to be off to a great start.  Export sales on corn were near the high end of the trade guess, which shouldn't be any surprise.  Bean exports were on the low end of the guess.  There is starting to be some talk of a ridge forming for the middle of June, but the market didn't trade it today.  Maybe next week if it is still in the forecast we will see some corrective buying.  Other news was very quiet today. 

Overnight markets traded higher most of the night and started the morning trade on its highs for the day. Corn was up 5 and beans were up 7 early, but then we had more negative political news break and beans turned lower around the 9:00 hour.  News broke that the US was going to put more tariffs on Canada and Mexico imports and of course news came back that they would retaliate if it happened.  It is truly amazing how fast these political stories can change and in turn change the market accordingly.  One day everything is good and everyone is happy and the next minute passes and tariffs are being thrown around.  As I mentioned before the volatility is going to continue.  There is just too many things lining up bearish at the moment, but that can all change as we start a new month tomorrow.  Will we see new buying to start out June?  Weather is off to a great start as it feels like we are living in a greenhouse the past week or so.  Export sales will be out tomorrow as they were delayed due to holiday.  I would export another big corn number. 

The Chinese vs US trade saga continues as some negative news strikes the market once again. Like I mentioned last week, news broke that China was going to buy massive amounts of US products and the markets took off a little prematurely.  Now today tariffs are back in the discussion and everything doesn’t smell like a rose anymore.  This volatility is going to continue until some type of a deal is actually struck.  The Brazil trucker strike sounds like it is in check once again as their yearly strike got resolved.  Weather is warm over much of the corn belt and it is pretty early to be talking triple digit temps.  Overall this heat was welcomed, but below average moisture in the forecast could get the bulls excited a little earlier than normal.  Planting progress will be out at 3:00 today.  Corn is expected around 90-90% complete and beans are expected around 75-79%.  Beans are way ahead of average pace, which is 62%.  Export inspections were very good once again for corn at 67 million bushel, which is no surprise.  Bean inspections were at 21 million bushel.  Let’s see if we can get some turn around Tuesday action tomorrow after today’s sell off.

Overnight markets had continued buying on speculation that this Chinese massive buying spree is for real. Corn made a new high for move before trending lower just before the 11:00 hour this morning.  Selling picked up during the rally and sell orders got triggered as well, but once the market turned negative the selling dried up.  So what was to blame for the big reversal?  Weather still looks pretty decent to start this crop as we see 90 degrees for the next 5 days in May to jump start this crop.  If we get rain during this heat spell it should make for a great start.  Holiday weekend mode could now be in full affect as the funds take profits on what has been a solid rally.  I would assume tomorrow will be a quiet day in the markets ahead of the weekend.  Mr Trump decided today not to meet with N. Korea and when that news broke the market backed off as well.  It’s not only a long weekend, but it’s also month end to follow, so I wouldn't be surprised if we just saw our highs for the month. 

China remains the big news in this market as now it appears they are going to buy enormous amounts from the US and it has everyone excited. One day you hear one thing and the next day they change it.  It seems to be all rumors at this point, so let’s wait and see if it comes true.  Buy the rumor and sell the fact type scenario could also be possible.  Rumors today were that China may have instructed their reserve group to start buying US soybeans, sorghum, and DDG's.  There is also talk that China bought 220 mt of US soybeans today and that will get announced tomorrow.  There are more rumors that they bought US sorgham overnight as well.  There is now talk that China is going to buy 10 mmt of US soybeans to put in their reserves, just a few weeks after news broke that they were going to deplete their reserve.  There is also rumor that China is buying US corn and sorgham soon.  Is that enough China news for one day?  US Midwest 6-10 day weather calls for normal to above temps and normal to below rainfall except US SE which could see above normal rains. 8-14 day calls for above normal temps and normal rains. 

Overnight markets were strong as the news broke over the weekend that China and the US have decided not to impose tariffs on goods for the time being and essentially put the trade war on hold. This allowed the bulls, who have been feeling a little on edge, back into the ballgame for now.  Beans finished the day up over 25 cents.  Corn got within a half cent of the highs on the July contract before backing off to unchanged in the early morning hours.  Wheat broke just over a dime in Chicago and seemed to have pulled corn back with it.  Export inspections were solid for corn once again at 60 million bushel.  Bean exports were much better than expected at 33 million bushel.  That just added some fuel to the fire this morning.  Planting progress will be out this afternoon.  Corn is estimated at 72-75% complete and beans at estimated 54-57%.

US weather looks good for starting the growing season with normal to above temps and normal precip. The 8-14 day calls for above normal temps and normal precip.  Planting progress should see a good jump when Monday's numbers get printed.  Mr Trump told reporters in the oval office that he "doubts talks with China will be successful".  That was just enough to keep the pressure on the soybean market today as we broke below the 10.00 mark on the July contract.  Export sales were out this morning and corn was on the high side of expectations at 38.8 million bushel and beans were just slightly under the lowest estimate at 10.4 million.  Corn exports continue to be impressive for the time being; beans not so much.   Corn basis starts to see more signs of firming up as the farmers are still worried about planting.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out when the bin doors open up once planting is wrapped up.  Can the export market take on the massive amount of corn left on the farm? 

Corn planting pace last night was pegged at 62% done vs 63% average. Bean planting was at 35% vs 26% average.  We have caught up to pace, but the weather still shows signs of more moisture and we are still seeing some troubled areas that are not very far along.  Corn bounced higher today on that news and export pace continues to be supportive as well.  Beans bounced all over the place this morning down a dime at one point erasing yesterday's gains, but finished back on the plus side. Bean volatility is far from over until the political issues get removed from this market.  The US dollar sky rocketed today up over a half a point and has now ran over 4 points in the last month.  That could be a burden on exports at some point.  April NOPA bean crush was as expected at 161 million bushel.  That is much bigger than last year's 139.1 million, but like I said it was as expected.  Grain movement remains very light as the farmers remain in the field, but once the crop is in that could change in a hurry. 

Report Day:

Corn carryout for 17/18 was unchanged from April's USDA estimate at 2,182 million bushels vs an average guess of 2,170. Our first look at 18/19 shows a corn carryout of 1,682 million bushel, which was very close to average guess of 1,620.  World ending stocks is where the surprise was found.  17/18 world ending stocks were as expected at 194.9 million tonnes.  18/19 world ending stocks were pegged at 159.2 million tonnes vs an average guess of 180.8.  That is much lower than anticipated and sets up a bullish scenario if there becomes a weather issue and we don't make a 174 national yield.  Bean carryout dropped to 530 million for 17/18, down 20 million from April.  The surprise here was the 18/19 carryout down at 415 million vs the average guesses near 529 million.  The world ending stocks for 17/18 were at 92.2 million tonnes vs 90.0 average guesses.  18/19 world ending stocks were pegged at 86.7 million tonnes vs guesses at 90.9.  The interesting part of the bean carryout’s for next year is that they have exports at 2,290 million bushel vs this year at 2,065.  That is a pretty massive increase considering all the political issues we are dealing with and the continued thoughts that we won’t reach this year’s estimate of 2,065.

Corn planting progress last night was pegged at 39% versus 17% last week, 45% a year ago, and 44% average. Soybean planting was at 15% versus 5% last week, 13% a year ago, and 13% average. Overall better than expected, but the markets shrugged it off after yesterday’s sell off.  Export inspections yesterday were "huge" for corn at just over 1.91 mmt vs a range of estimates at 1.1 to 1.6 mmt.  That was the second largest we have seen only to the April 5th number of 1.94 mmt.  As of May 3rd cumulative export inspections are at 58.7% of the USDA forecast vs 60.4% average.  Bean exports on the other hand were not so impressive at .53 mmt and the cumulative total is at 78.4% of the US forecast vs a 5 year average of 88.9%.  We need to average .7 mmt each week from here out through the end of August.  I will go out on a limb and say that is not going to happen.  The top economic advisors from China are planning to be in D.C next week to continue trade talks with Trumps organization.  There remains to be a lot of political risk premium in this market and that is not going to change any time soon.  Corn is also seeing some political risk as we continue to discuss E15 possibilities.

Beans traded lower most of night after yesterday’s jump higher for merely no reason. Yesterday afternoons spike higher was blamed on positive China and US talk.  Last night and this morning’s reports from China didn't sound nearly as positive, so beans lost yesterday's gains and then some.  Corn traded a tight 2 cent range most of the day and finished down a couple on the day.  US Midwest weather calls for normal to above temps and normal rainfall.  8-14 day calls for normal to above temps and normal rains.  Other news is pretty light today as we wait to see what planting progress does on Monday and then of course the report next Thursday.

Beans took a breather today as meal was down about 4 bucks. The worry on beans remains the export sales.  Crush should be large going forward with all the issues in Argentina, but it still likely won't be large enough to offset the expected drop in exports.  There are still a lot of unknowns with inflation and political issues.  The US has their meetings with China the end of this week.  Corn took a breather today as we traded about a two cent range throughout the day.  A favorable Midwest forecast should allow the planters to roll in many areas.  Basis on the PNW showed another sign of weakness today as there were no bids going home last night, but some showed up today about a nickel below the previous market.  Heavy corn movement the past few days was to blame as we filled the pipeline for the time being.  If the futures want to take another leg higher this trend could continue.  

Corn planting progress last night was pegged at 17% versus last year at 32% and 27% average. We are behind pace, but we also have a better ability to catch up quickly. US Midwest 6-10 day weather calls for normal to below temps and normal to below rainfall. 8-14 day also calls for normal to below temps and normal rains. NOAA est that US Midwest May weather will be wet and warm.  We just need a few good windows to get the crop in the ground…that is once we start of course in our area.  Corn made another new high for the move today at 4.205 Dec futures.  It still feels like corn wants to break out a little further.  Basis will be the watch to see if it can take on the large amount of producer selling.  I still think we have until June as the farmer gets out of the field, but one never knows.  Meal lead the way today in the bean complex up over 10 bucks as the Argentina meal export concern remains the worry.  Our next USDA report is on May 10th with an updated look at stocks. 

Overnight markets had all the grains moving higher and that continued for the morning hours, but eventually beans turned lower. The USDA announced another sale of new crop beans to Argentina, which had the market fired up this morning.  There are still talks of delayed plantings, which would be friendly corn and bearish beans. Is that really what we are trading though?  I don't think so at this point.  We will have a planting progress update today at 3:00.  Expectations are 15-19%.  Corn export inspections today were 57 million corn, which was as expected.  Bean export inspections were better than expected at 25 million bushel.  Corn made a new high for the move today at 4.185, which matched the highs from August 2017.  It feels like we are poised to break through that level and work closer to 4.25 Dec futures.  Beans on the other hand remain anyone’s guess with all the trade war talks.  Movement was heavy this morning on both old and new corn and basis showed signs of weakening today.  With farmers heading to fields this week, I would assume basis will hold firm for now unless we get another bump higher on the futures.

Overnight markets were softer as Stats Canada came out this morning and had some bearish wheat acres. They estimated wheat acres at 25.3 vs 23.0 expected and 22.5 last year.  That pulled the Minneapolis wheat market lower early, but it still managed to recover later in the day as beans and meal pulled everything higher.  Meal lead the way up 14 bucks on the day.  Beans traded almost 20 cents higher at one point today as well.  The reason for the move higher could be multiple factors.  They still want to talk about the barge incident in Argentina as it is unknown how long that port could be down for repairs.  It is also thought that next week’s trade talks between China and the US could be promising.  Overnight, news broke that the North Korea and South Korea leaders met face to face, which could also be promising for world trade talks.  The talk of inflation is also friendly to the commodities market.  Then we have weather, which is causing planting delays in some areas.  Beans are the biggest unknown at the moment, so the volatility will continue until the crop gets in the ground and deals are struck in the political battles. 

Today was a very quiet day in the grain markets. I had one source tell me today that Illinois planted about 25 percent of their crop in the past three days.   That sounds like a lot, but we all know how fast it can be done.  Export sales this morning were lower than expectations on both corn and beans.  Corn was at 27.4 million vs expectations at 31.5 - 47.2 million.  Beans were at 13.6 million vs estimates of 14.7 - 25.7 million.  Corn basis continues to improve as farmer movement remains slow and that won't change until they get out of the fields now.  The month of May will be the time frame to get your summer basis locked in on corn.  Bean basis remains poor as their still issue on the river with high water and bean exports are more of a question mark. 

Cash Corn and Beans bids are now off the July Futures

Weather has turned warmer and looks to continue that way now, which will give us a chance to get this crop in the ground. The market is no longer (never was) worried about delayed planting.  Soil temps in N Iowa have warmed up over 10 degrees in the past two days, which will allow planters to roll once the soil is fit.  We know how fast we can get this crop in the ground and this year will be another good example of that once we get the window to start.  Corn support today was tied to weather maps turning hot/dry for 1/3rd of Brazil’s Safrinha crop the next 2 weeks.  Fresh corn movement is nearly nonexistent, so basis could have a chance to firm slightly through the planting season.  Bean basis on the other hand is a complete unknown at the moment as the PNW export program went no bid on Friday.  It looks like it will be a river and processor bid throughout the summer.  Most commercials are long bean basis this year, so basis on beans will be tough to improve much going forward.

Corn was slightly lower today on the news that China was selling more of their reserve corn, but that should be friendly longer term as they draw down their supply. It sounds like China sold about 2.7 MMT this time around, which was about 90% of what they were offering.  Corn export sales were at the top end of estimates at 43 million bushel.  We now just need 14.2 million bushel per week to meet the USDA expectations and we are going to blow right threw that!  That will in turn lower the carryout.  The big question remains planted acres as we try and get planting underway.  Bean exports were basically as expected at 38.2 million.  Beans are not looking like they will meet USDA expectations, but meal and oil should beat their estimates.  I read one source today that mentioned the US was looking at getting back in the CPTPP deal, which would be great news.  We will have to see how that plays out going forward.

Corn keeps working lower, but planting delays are becoming more of an issue. Last night’s national planting progress was at 3% vs 6% last year.  That gap is going to widen quite a bit before it starts to close as planting is nonexistent in the northern states with more snow on the horizon.  One thing we need to remember is how fast we can get this crop in the ground.  China imposed anti-dumping duties on US sorghum today, so those battles continue.  Corn spreads have been steady the last 3 weeks, but have a chance to widen some into first notice day.  If you have basis contracts in the May we need to be thinking about getting them rolled out to the July.  Basis continues to improve slightly as corn movement has slowed.  On a bean note a Brazilian company Safras & Mercado raised their soybean production estimate from 117.3 mmt to 119.2 mmt.  If that estimate holds true it would be a new record by a difference of 5 mmt.

All commodities corn, beans, and wheat took a hit on the chin today, while the financial markets are working higher. Export inspections on corn were near the upper end of the range of guesses today at 59 million bushel.  Bean inspections were in the middle of estimates at 16 million bushel.  NOPA bean crush was much larger than expected at 171.86 million bushel vs estimates at 168.3 million.  This is a record crush for any month.  There sure are a lot of different news stories that are causing a great amount of uncertainty with the grain markets, which is going to continue to cause high volatility.  We have the Chinese trade war, Bombings in Syria, Argentina drought, Delayed planting in the US all fighting for the lead headline. 

After trading lower through the night and part of the morning, corn managed to work it's way back to the plus side. Some people are starting to talk about delayed planting, but I don't think we are trading that just yet.  If this snow fall for the weekend holds true, we could be talking about it very soon.  Export sales for corn were good, but on the low end of expectations.  They came in at 33.1 million bushel vs guesses of 35.4 - 55.1 million.   Currently we are still ahead of normal pace on corn exports by about 100 million bushel vs the USDA expectations.  Bean export sales were great at 55.5 million old crop and 35.1 million new crop.  Expectations on old crop were 33.1-51.4 million and new crop was 14.7-22.0.  Both were higher than expected.  We continue to hear all the rumblings of trade war and yet business has spiked ahead of the possible tariff dates.  The Argentina bean sales the past few days are the biggest question mark.  Will that continue?  Will more business spur because of the trade concerns?

The USDA report was slightly friendly for beans and neutral for corn. Beans traded up 17 cents almost instantly after the report, but settled back into the close.  Corn finished the day down a penny and traded tight 4 cents range on the day.  Weather and politics look to be the main underlying issues going forward for a while.  The USDA predicted the US corn carryout at 2.182 vs an average guess of 2.189.  The world corn carryout was at 197.8 million tonnes vs an average guess of 197.3.  Argentine corn was pegged at 33 million tonnes vs 36 in March.  Brazil corn was at 92 million tonnes vs 94.5 in March.  On the bean side US carryout was at 550 vs an average guess of 574 million bushel.  In March we were at 555 million.  The world bean carryout was at 90.8 million tonnes vs an average guess of 92.95.  Argentina beans were pegged at 40 million tonnes vs 47 in March.  Brazil beans were at 115 million tonnes vs 113 in March.  The most interesting thing that happened today was we had a bean sale announced to Argentina for new crop beans.  That has not happened since `08-09.

Tomorrow is our Monthly USDA report, which will focus on old crop stocks only. I would not expect a whole lot of surprises out of this report, but one never knows.  Tensions between the US and China are still there, but may have eased slightly from last week….for the time being of course.  Export inspections were great for corn at 76 mil bushel vs 48 last year.  Bean inspections were poor at 13 mil bushel vs last year at 31.  Overnight markets had beans up about 22 cents at one point, but by the coffee break we were trading about right where we closed.  Corn tested last week’s highs at 3.92 May futures and is only 3 cents from the highs.  Corn movement picked up today for both old and new crop.  Weather is becoming an issue and that story is starting to pick up some steam.  The weather forecast is for another 4-8 inches of snow for MN, Eastern SD, and Northern IA later this week.  Let's hope they are wrong!

Political issues with China remain on pins and needles as the trade war remains the fear. Overnight markets had corn down 7 and beans down over 25 early, but came nicely by mid-morning.  Volatility in these markets are going to continue as the fears become closer to reality.  Bean basis cannot make up its mind and the river market came to life yesterday, but today seemed to back off.  We are seeing massive swings on bid and offers within short periods of time.  Rumors had Brazil premiums up 20-30 cents at one point, which is unheard of as well in such a short period of time.  These premiums are also higher due to trade war thoughts I would assume.  Lets see if cooler heads prevail over the weekend between the two countries.  We do have our Monthly USDA next Tuesday.  Have a good weekend and hopefully the snow forecast is wrong!

China Tariffs are the talk of the day. News hit the market around 2:40 am that China was going to retaliate on Trumps Tariffs and add a 25% tariff of their own.  Beans broke instantly and pulled corn down hard as well.  At 6:00 am beans were down around 50 cents and corn was down 15 cents.  By the close we recovered over half of those early losses.  How this all plays out, remains to be seen.  Personally I think this Trade War talk is way overdone.  China knows as well as anyone that they still need to buy our beans.  Sure they could hold out for as long as possible, but at some point they will need to come back to bat.  It is interesting that China announced their tariffs would start at the same time as the US tariffs begin, because they usually buy from South America May through September anyway.  They will be able to play hardball for a while, so be prepared.  Political issues are going to continue to add a lot of volatility to this market, so buckle in.  A trade deal with NAFTA and CPTPP are going to be the only solution.  If we tear up those deals entirely we are in a world of hurt. 

GPC is offering free price later corn in Murdock only, pricing deadline 10/17/2018.  Effective 4/4/2018.

Corn and beans both moved higher overnight. Corn traded up 4 cents up to 3.92 May futures, which was the first set of resistance.  Beans traded up 16 at one point before falling back into the morning hours.  Things looked as though they were going to be very strong for the day, but that wasn't the case.  Beans and meal broke back at the 8:30 open and eventually faded into red figures around the 10:00 hour.  There seems to be more fear today about China retaliations on tariffs, causing the money to run for cover.  The DOW is down over 700 points as well today.  Will we have a trade war?  Beans eventually traded low enough to pull corn back to unchanged near the close, but it still feels like corn wants to trade higher at the moment.  Farmer movement was steady on both old and new crop, but it was lighter than Thursday.  PNW rail basis seems to be holding steady even with farmer movement picking up.  How long can that last?  Export inspections were as expected on both corn and beans.

USDA was out with their acres and stocks estimates today and they did so with a Bang! Corn acres were very friendly at 88.0 million vs estimates at 89.4 million.  Corn stocks were not friendly as they were 185 million above the estimates.  Corn finished the day right at the highs.  Bean acres were posted at a surprising 89.0 million vs an average guess of 91.0.  Bean stocks were 77 million more than the estimates.  Beans finished a few cents off the highs of the day, but still finished at new highs on the new crop months.  Old crop futures have been higher previously by about 35 cents.  Wheat acres were posted at 47.3 million vs estimates at 46.3 million.  Cotton was also 300k above estimates for planted acres.  If you start adding up the acres we are short about 2 million somewhere?  Where did they go?  Where will they go in coming reports?  I would venture to say that this will be the lowest bean acre number that we see all year.  They are bound to get bigger in the coming months.  Maybe not the entire 2 million of missing acres, but I think it will likely be a big chunk of them.

The grain markets traded higher in the overnight with corn up 3 and beans up 10 at one point. Corn turned red almost instantly when this morning’s trade opened up and beans turned into red figures as well around the noon hour.  Trade war concerns seem to have eased for the moment, but that can change in a hurry.  The stock market is up almost 500 points as we are once again back over 24,000 on the DOW.  Trade seems to be consolidated here after Friday's early morning sell off as we continue to wait for the USDA planting intentions report on Thursday.  Will we see smaller corn acres vs larger bean acres like some private experts have indicated?  Another thing to remember is that there are no markets on Friday as the markets are closed for Good Friday.  That could make things very interesting on Monday if we get any surprises on the USDA report. 

Yesterday Trump imposed Tariffs on China for Steel and Aluminum and now hear China is going to retaliate on pork and some other commodities. Are we going to have ourselves a trade war?  The danger of that looms and the markets showed fear of that early this morning.  Will China also add a tariff to soybeans?  In the early morning the grain markets were taking a beating with beans down 20 and corn down 6.  By the noon hour we were back to close to unchanged.  That was a very impressive turn around and could signal that as our lows for now ahead of next Thursday's report.  Politics are a dangerous game as of late and can have a huge impact on our ag markets.  Strap in for the ride as things are far from cleared up between us and China.  Exports were out this morning after being delayed yesterday.  Corn was at 58 mil bu and beans were at 28 mil bu, both were at the low end of estimates.  Meal was the biggest story today down 8 bucks early and finishing up 10 bucks by the close.  The word is out that the spending bill is signed with a fix to the section 199A making it very similar to last years policy.

The grain markets continue to chop around as we seem to be content and waiting for planting intentions report next Thursday. I would expect that to continue for now.  We had another USDA announcement of corn this morning to South Korea.  We have export sales out tomorrow and we are expecting another very big corn number.  Corn continues to hold the 50 day moving average of 3.73 1/4 as that looks to be support for now.  If that levels breaks 3.69 would be the next level of strong support.  I am anticipating a larger beans acres number on this upcoming report; which leads to a smaller corn acres number.  I am a bit optimistic at this point that the corn market will have some more life in it.  If that is the case on this report you may want to be taking a look at corn basis.  We know there is a large amount of corn to move this summer, so getting ahead in basis coverage would be a good idea if we are expecting a rally in the futures.  Exports remain solid at the moment and allow for great basis opportunities.  If we get a rally and a large amount of grain moves can basis sustain these kinds of levels?  I don't think it can.  Rail markets are already nearing capacity thru May, so what happens when the program fills up? 

The grains markets saw a massive amount of liquidation on the day. Beans traded lower on talks of better Argentina rains, favorable Brazil weather; lower than expected weekly US exports and concern over US trade policies.  Meal broke through support last night and finished the day down 14 bucks.  To fill the gap on meal we need to drop another 9 bucks.  I think this market is poised to do that in the near future.  We were due for a setback in the bean market and today just happened to be the day.  Corn also had a major setback today as wheat took a tumble as the southern wheat regions seen rain over the weekend.  Support lies within about 3 cents on corn at 3.72.  Export inspections were on the upper end of expectations at 55 million bushel.  Export sales remain solid, but we also have a monster supply to work through.  Fund length was bigger than expected on Friday's commitment of trader’s report, which may have also played a role in today liquidation.

Corn made another move lower today as we test support at 3.82 May futures. If that level doesn't hold the 200 day moving average is at 3.79.  Today was very quiet with very little news.  The Climate Prediction Center came out with their 90 day outlook for the US.  Most of the eastern and western corn belt and Delta region could see above normal temps with the upper Midwest receiving above normal precip and normal precip elsewhere.  That doesn't give us much to go on as we head into planting intentions in a couple weeks, but it’s the first look we have at weather that far out.  Argentina is expecting rain in the Northern and eastern regions this weekend, but the southern regions will miss out again.  The best rains should fall in the Buenos Aires and Entre Rios.  I would imagine those rain totals will impact the direction we head next week.  For the week corn was down 7 and beans were up 10 on the nearby months. 

Corn continued to move lower today as we buy the rumor sell the fact on exports. Corn saw it largest export sale figure since September 2008, well above the average estimates of 1.5 to 2.0 mmt posting a hefty 2.6 mmt.  The Rasario grain exchange estimated Argentine corn production at 32.0 million tonnes down from their previous estimate of 35.0 million tonnes.  Beans popped higher today on another good export number as well of 1.35 mmt, which was at the upper end of expectations.  The other factor that could have contributed to the bounce is that the past 24 hour rain event in Argentina was less than expected.  This weekend’s rain event though is still forecasted to be their largest rain event in the past two months.  NOPA crush was an impressive 153.7 million tonnes vs estimates at 149.4.  That is a record crush for the month of February.  Rasario grain exchange lowered the Argentine bean production to 40.0 million vs their previous estimate of 46.5.  IpesaSilo has their estimate down at 38.0 million.  As we continue to watch Argentina production fall, Brazil continues to improve as estimates there are nearing 116 million vs previous estimates at 114. 

Beans led the way lower today as Allendale came out with their updated estimate of corn and beans acres for next year. Allendale estimated bean acres at 92.1 million and corn acres at 88.5 million.  92.1 million bean acres is the biggest guess we have seen to this point.  I had a hunch bean acres were going to be much bigger than the 90 million at the outlook conference, but I was leaning closer to early private estimates of 91.5 million.  The USDA will be out on March 29th with their planting intentions report.  I guess we will have to wait and see, but with the recent run higher beans I wouldn't be surprised if we gained more.  The Argentina forecast remains wet for the next, but is it too little too late?  It might salvage some or at least set a floor on yield.  Corn broke lower in the last 5 minutes of trade finishing down 3.  Ethanol production for the week was a bit negative at 1.025 million barrels per day.  This was down about 3% from last week and 2% from last year.  Corn used for production was at 106.6 million bushels.  We need to average 104.69 million the balance of the year to meet the USDA projection. 

Politics seem to be at the forefront again today and is supporting the grain complex. The president of Cofco, China's largest food company, stated that an escalating trade war would be a blow to the global economy.  He said the US supply of soybeans is the most important resource for all soybean importers from China because the US market is very open and efficient.  He also mentioned that the Chinese government is still encouraging companies to buy US soybeans and expects ongoing discussions with Trump over trade issues.  That may have got the market excited and allowed us to move higher after Friday's sell off.  Meal managed to hold that crucial 370 level and also traded 5 bucks higher on the day.  Corn saw another sale announced this morning of optional origin corn to South Korea of 210,000 tonnes.  Corn sales are becoming an everyday occurrence lately.  Corn made a new high for the move today before settling back slightly at the close.  Argentina weather continues to look wetter in the 11-15, but it might be too little too late.  Northern Brazil looks very wet for the next two weeks, which could delay harvest and also cause some quality issues.  Export business remains hot and heavy, but we hearing some rumors talking about some capacity concerns.

Beans traded 7-8 lower on the overnight as parts of Argentina saw some rain over the weekend. During the day trade we managed to battle all the way back on some good export inspections.  Beans were better than expected for the second week in a row.  Argentina is forecasted for better rains this weekend, so it will be interesting to see if we can hold beans higher for the week.  Meal closed at a very pivotal level.  370.3 May futures were support and if that level fails we have good chance to go fill the gap back near 350.  If meal tries to fill that gap beans will likely drop more, maybe as much as 30 - 40 cents.  Corn gained a boost from overnight levels when 14 million bushel of corn business was done over the weekend.  There was a USDA announcement today to both Unknown and Japan.  Corn export inspections were great once again at nearly 1.4 mmt, which was a ten month high.  The upper ends of expectations were at 1.2 mmt.  Business continues as we remain cheap for now. Funds have almost completely reversed their positions from record short approx. 250k contracts in Jan to now long about the same. 

Beans took a major breather today as someone might of realized the US has a 555 million bushel carryout. We all know it takes a while for a rally to happen, but when the money flip flops we can drop in an instant.  Meal was also down 10 bucks on the day and is now 30 bucks off the highs from last week.  Meal looks to be at a critical level on the charts.  If 370 meal doesn't hold we might try and fill the gap back near 350.  If that happens bean could lose another 20-30 cents. For the week cash beans were down 32 and new crop beans were down 7.  Even with beans down hard today corn managed to hang in there.  Good export business should support corn for now, but we have a massive amount of on farm stocks to continue to work through.  Corn still has a good chance to leak higher, but if beans want to take another step back I am not sure corn needs to go any higher.  Be careful as we may be seeing the money flow shift back to the financials as the DOW was up about 450 points today.  Have a good weekend.

Corn rallies on exports being raised another 175 million by the USDA. This is after a 125 million increase on the Feb report.  Corn carryout is estimated at 2.127 billion bushel vs the Feb estimate at 2.352 billion.  That is still comfortable, but at least we are seeing the export business eat at it for now.  Hopefully it continues into summer months.  World carryout on corn was almost exactly as expected at 199.17 mmt.  The USDA dropped the Brazil corn crop to 94.5 mmt, down .5 mmt from Feb.  Estimates were leaning closer to 92.22 mmt.  Argentine corn was estimated at 36 mmt vs 39 mmt in Feb.  Beans were not nearly as friendly as the corn, but futures managed to hang in there.   Bean carryout was up 25 million bushel at 555 million as the USDA raised crush 10 million and dropped the exports another 35 million.  Apparently they are not thinking we will see an increase in demand from this Argentine weather issue.  World bean carryout was at 94.40 mmt vs an average estimate of 95.3 mmt.  In Feb the world carryout was at 98.14 mmt, so this is the only friendly number to beans.  Argentina beans were estimated at 47.0 mmt vs an average guess of 48.36 mmt.  Brazil beans were estimated at 113.0 mmt vs an average guess of 113.82 mmt.

There was some profit taking in beans today ahead of the report as the funds unwind some positions ahead of tomorrow’s report. Cash beans traded down a dime, while new crop beans only finished down a penny.  That spread indicates that funds are liquidating some of their length.  Corn traded in another tight 2 cent range, slightly extending their highs for the move.  Corn basis seems to be hot on the PNW as basis continues to improve even with farmer movement.  Will the USDA increase export demand once again on this report?  Last month they increased it 125 million bushel and I wouldn't be surprised if they do it again tomorrow.  It is pretty impressive to think back how far behind pace we were in December and now we are adding more exports two months in a row.  The US is still considered cheap at the moment for corn, so business should continue.  A rally in the board or a gain in the US dollar can change things in a hurry.  Hopefully the business continues into July and August as there is a massive amount of corn to move off the farm this summer. 

Corn and beans seem to be consolidating at current levels on talks of better US demand due to lower South American supplies. Will the USDA indicate a major drop in the South American crop, or will they lag behind the private estimates?  Will they raise US exports higher due to South American issues?  Those are the main items in question on Thursday's report.  CONAB will be out on Thursday as well with their updated guess.  Some attention is starting to shift to the March 29th report as we shift into planted acres.  I think we will see a major shift to bean acres vs what the outlook conference indicated.  They indicated an equal amount of corn and bean acres at 90 million apiece.  With the recent run in the markets bean acres could potentially be well over 91 million.  Even with the issues in Argentina I think this is a great opportunity to sell beans, both old and new crop.  Between Brazil and the US, bean stocks in the world are still very comfortable.

Corn managed to make a new high today after trading unchanged most of the day. Beans made a new high on the November contract, but finished about a nickel shy of making a new high on the May contract.  Argentina continues to be the worry as their weather looks much the same for this week.  We do have a USDA report on Thursday, so I would expect to see some profit taking ahead of that.  Corn exports continue to pick up as grain moves, but basis holds firm for now.  The US remains cheap on exports for now.  Bean basis is not nearly acting the same way.  Processor and River bids are extremely poor as there has been very heavy movement lately.  The good news is we are starting to see some rail bids pop up for the summer months.  It seems early for that, but we will take it.  Make sure to be starting on new crop corn and beans at these current levels ahead of the report on Thursday. 

Corn and beans are now off the May futures for cash sales.

Today was another choppy day as cash beans managed to squeeze out a new high by a half cent. The last 4 days have traded a 20 cent range on beans.  Each day of trade managed to trade within 2 cents of the high.  It feels as though we are consolidating at this level.  The question becomes are we ready to break out further or take a setback.  The Sunday night South American forecast will decide how we start.  It is always interesting when we trade weather let alone someone else’s weather.  Export sales this morning were net negative of Soybeans with the cancellations last week.  We continue to struggle on bean exports.  Corn exports were great once again as the US remains competitive as corn exports seem to be hitting on all cylinders at the moment.

Today was a very quiet day in the markets with corn and beans trading a tight range on both sides of unchanged. The USDA announced a couple more sales this morning to Unknown.  130,000 tons of old crop corn and 120,000 tons of beans half old crop and half new crop.  US corn remains very competitive on the world market, which is great to see.  The USDA is estimating both corn and bean acres at 90.0 million for next year.  I would argue there will be more bean acres than that especially after this current run in the markets.  Private estimates were closer to 91.5 million bean acres prior to this move higher.  The USDA will issue their ending stocks estimates tomorrow.  Exports sales will be out tomorrow morning as the holiday on Monday had them delayed.   It is nice to see a rally come while we are setting Feb Insurance values.  Currently corn is about 3.95 and beans are about 10.11.   I would expect another choppy day tomorrow.  The forecast for Argentina on Sunday night will likely determine if beans are high enough, or if we break into new highs next week.  This Argentina story is starting to run out of steam in my opinion.

A few spots in Argentina received a small amount of rain over the weekend, but the central areas that are very dry didn't receive any. The 6-10 day also remains dry for the central region.  Meal continues to be the story and beans just follow the leader.  At one point today meal was up 13 bucks, but finished only up 3 at the close.  Beans traded up 18 overnight, but only finished up 5.  Don't try and be a hero and try to hit everything at the high.  Sell into this rally and scale up.  Hopefully your first sale is the worst sale as always, but at least we won't miss this entire rally if the money turns.  We know how fast a weather market can change.  We could wake up one morning and be down 30 cents and wonder why we down.  My question would be why  were we this high?  Like I mentioned already meal is the story more so than the beans themselves.  Corn made a new high for the move this morning and touched 3.70 March futures, but finished in the red down 2 cents.  Every time corn moves higher the farmer engages.  A 2.5 billion bushel carryout will do that!  I still think 4.00 Dec is going to be hard to break through for a while.

On the coffee break this morning things were pretty quiet with corn unchanged and beans up a penny. Beans traded up about 4 cents before 9 AM and put in a new high on the March futures before breaking in the matter of minutes to trading a dozen lower.  By 10 AM we managed to gain most of that back and even traded higher again at one point.  We knew it was going to be wild heading into a 3 day weekend for the grain markets, but overall it was pretty tame.  Argentina weather looks to be about the same as the previous days, so Monday's forecast will be very important.  Beans continue to feel like we are high enough for now, but meal might determine otherwise.  Beans finished the week up 38 cents.  Corn traded in a tight 2 cent range again today and finished the week up 5 cents.  Reminder there is no markets on Monday, so GPC will not be buying grain after the close on Friday, until Tuesday.  If you would like to put in orders we will be here on Monday to take those for you.  Have a good weekend!

Beans are within a whisker of the Dec 5^th high as we have achieved many of the expert’s goals on March beans.  Movement was once again very heavy today on both old and new beans.  Argentina weather continues to look dry into the 6-10 day.  Meal continues to lead the way up another 4 bucks today.  It will be interesting to see if we are really ready to break into a new high ahead of a 3 day weekend.   I would suspect we will see some profit taking tomorrow due to 3 day weekend considering beans have already moved 80 cents higher from the Jan 12th low.  Export sales were poor on beans, which have been the norm as of late, but the market doesn't seem to care.  NOPA bean crush was also a disappointment, but that was shrugged that off as well.  Fundamentals and technicals are starting to tell two different stories on beans, so we will have to see which one wins.  Corn still cannot break through these current levels.  Export sales continue to be great as of late, but the market feels like we have a comfortable supply.  Corn movement remains steady, but with good exports basis is holding steady.  I still think 4.00 Dec corn futures are going to be hard to break at the moment.

The overnight trade was lower the entire night with corn down 2 and beans down 5 at the coffee break. Beans instantly traded higher on the 8:30 open and never looked back.  We are approaching 10.25 on the March contract, which was the Dec high.  That level remains the target at the moment and it is now only 8 cents away.  New crop beans seem to have stalled out at this 10.20 November level.  Beans continue to move in a big way on this rally, both old and new crop.  Meal was up another 5 bucks on the day as we continue to make new highs there.  Funds are now long nearly 20,000 bean contracts, long 100,000 meal contracts, and short just 50,000 corn contracts.  It was not that long ago when funds were short 230,000 corn contracts and the market has only moved 20 cents from the lows.  Basis continues to hold firm even with the heavy farmer selling as of late.  US corn continues to be cheap compared to the rest of the world out of the west coast.  That should help us meet the new USDA export pace that they just increased 125 million last week.  Bean exports are going to struggle to make export pace even with the 60 million decrease by the USDA last week.  Don't miss this boat on beans.  If you have not made sales on this move you need to do so.

Another day with the same result. Beans were stronger on continued meal strength and Argentina weather concerns.  Nov beans reached just shy of 10.20 futures, which was my target a while back.  March beans however have blown through my target of 10.00 futures.  A couple private brokers are estimating 10.24 – 10.27 March futures on this move, which would match our highs from the early December run higher.  I keep telling myself this run in beans is overdone, but trying to pick a top here could be treacherous.  Pick a level and have an order working, so we reward this run on both old and new crop.  This is a great selling opportunity after a bearish report in soybeans.  Meal is the big driver up another 7 bucks today and continues to be the story to watch.  Bean basis continues to feel a ton of pressure, while corn stays about unchanged.  Weekend rains are forecasted for Argentina, but the question remains will it be enough?  The other fun element to this market is there are no markets on Monday, so we will have to position for a 3 day weekend in this madness as well.

Beans matched the highs from Tuesday, Jan 30th on disappointing rains in Argentina over the weekend. Some rains did fall of around a half inch, but this week’s forecast is dryer than last week and still warm.  Corn also matched previous highs, but couldn't manage to break out yet.  Brazil continues to be wet, which is supportive to corn.  Today seemed to be a “risk on” day in both the grains and the financials.  The dow is currently up about 500 points, which is good to see after last week’s beat down.  Export inspections this morning were on the high end of expectations for soybeans, but on the low end for corn.  China was in the news for a large cancellation on soybeans today, but unknown had a large purchase to sort of wash out the difference.  Other than South American weather there is really no news to speak of.  Beans were moving very heavy today both old and new.  I mentioned last week that bean basis feels heavy and today is not helping matters.  Basis puckers more and will continue to do so as we move higher as we show signs of the massive 530 million bushel carryout.

Other than beans trading higher for about 3 minutes this morning we traded in the red the entire day on corn, beans, and wheat. Meal traded a couple bucks higher once again on continued worries with Argentina weather.  Overnight rains were better than expected from what I hear in Argentina, so I was surprised beans hung in there as much as they did considering the 530 carryout the USDA gave us yesterday.  More rain is expected over the weekend in SA, so that will be the watch on Sunday night when things re-open.  The 6-10 day looks dry at the moment, so maybe that is what is supporting the beans.  In my opinion beans feel heavy here and have potential to lose about 30-40 cents.  Meal is also about 20 bucks overpriced.  The entire country continues to have too many beans and basis is telling us the same story.  The DOW was very active today as the money cannot decide to buy or sell with massive swings in both directions.  Crude oil got absolutely smoked today down about 2.50, which makes beans even more impressive that they don’t want to sell off.  If you have not sold any new crop beans yet we are still at 10.00 Nov futures and only 17 cents off the highs. 

Conab was out this morning and bumped the Brazil bean crop to 111.6 mmt up 1.2 mmt from Jan. They lowered the Brazil crop down 4.3 mmt to 88 mmt on talk of less acres.  Both of these estimates were in line with trade thoughts.  On the USDA report expectations were a slightly lower carryout and it happened to come in a little lower than thought at 2.352 billion bushel.  The only change on the balance sheet was exports up 125 million.  That is good news!  Beans on the USDA report were expecting an increase to our carryout, but we got a much bigger increase than thought up 60 million bushel.  That puts our carryout at 530 million bushel vs last year at 302.  That is a substantial difference, but the market pretty blew it off for now and we finished the day trading higher.  South American weather is the watch as rain is forecasted for the weekend, but it is becoming a crucial 10 days.  The Sunday observed precip maps and the updated forecast will be the key to finish the month.  The USDA raised the Brazil bean crop to 112.0 vs 110.0 in Jan.  They left the Brazil corn unchanged at 95.0, so this leaves a lot of room for it to drop in future reports.  Argentine beans dropped by 2.0 mmt to 54 mmt, so as we thought Brazil made up for the difference.  Argentine corn was down 3 mmt from Jan at 39.0 mmt.

Corn managed to finish another couple cents to the good today as a slug of new crop orders managed to fill at 3.30 cash. That might not be a bad place to start as we approach 4.00 futures on the Dec contract.  Beans tried to trade higher overnight, but traded lower most of the day.  South American weather remains the watch as there are rains forecasted for the weekend, but we will have to wait and see if happens.  The USDA report is tomorrow and we will likely trade it for about 5 minutes before we switch back to a weather market.  Most feel the corn carryout will drop slightly as exports have picked up and ethanol remains at a good pace.  Will the USDA be willing to drop the South American yields?  We do have CONAB out tomorrow morning as well with their updated guess.  I personally think it going to be hard to get a real bullish reaction on anything, but there is always a chance.  Export sales will be out tomorrow morning as well, so be ready for a day full of information.

Corn and beans seen early pressure last night as rumors swirled that China was going to retaliate against President Trump's tariffs on washing machines and solar panels. They mentioned an antidumping/anti-subsidy probe being launched on US milo imports.  As we know we never want to get in the middle of a political fight.  We had a couple sales announced this morning.  130,000 metric tons of corn was sold to South Korea and 198,600 tons of beans to Unknown.  Export inspections were very good once again.  Corn was at 42.3 million bushel just above the high end of the estimates.  We need to average 44.7 mil bu over the balance of the next 30 weeks in order to reach the USDA estimate.  Bean inspections were also bigger than anticipated at 47.9 mil bu.  Beans are on track to meet the USDA export number, but will need to stay strong the balance of the year, which is unlikely.  The big story of the day is that crude oil is down nearly $2 and the DOW is down another 900 points (was down 1,700).  The correction is becoming a quick reality.  We must have hit some sell stops in the 25,000 area and quickly broke to 23,700, before recovering into the close.

Corn traded higher much of the day by a penny or so. Beans traded higher during the overnight, but traded lower the balance of the day trade.  The US Dollar was down slightly on the day.  Argentina weather looks slightly wetter on the midday forecast.  Northern Brazil is forecasted to be very wet in the 10 day forecast and Southern Brazil looks dryer.  Bean exports sales today were poor at 23 million bushel.  Meal sales were poor as well.  Meal has been leading the way in this rally, so that is the watch.  Corn sales were better than expected again, but not as good as last week at 57 million bushel.  Currently US prices are competitive and US sales could be helped by lower expectations of the Argentina crop and the extremely wet conditions in northern Brazil.  We did have a corn sale announced to Unknown today.  The Sunday night SA weather forecast will be the key once again to start out next week.  I would expect to see more profit taking next week as we are at month end once again.  I will be out of the office next week, so there will not be any market commentary on our website. 

Both corn and beans started the morning higher. Beans were up 4 on the overnight, but surged higher on the 8:30 open.  We achieved our goal on the March bean contract, which put in a high of 10.02.  November beans touched 10.15 futures.  Both turned out to be great selling opportunities.  Yesterday we cited the lower US dollar as a reason for the move higher.  The dollar traded lower again down to 88.6 around the noon hour.  News broke around 1:00 PM that our US treasurer Mnuchin was Misinterpreted and the dollar has a chance to move higher according to Mr. Trump.  On that news the dollar actually finished the day higher at 89.4 making a key reversal.  Beans were trading up 6 at the time the news broke and finished unchanged.  It feels like beans have made their move for the time being.  Maybe we can match those highs in the coming days, but breaking out higher could be extremely hard.  Argentina weather continues to look dry for the next 10 days.  Export sales will be out tomorrow morning as they were delayed due to the govt shutdown.

The grain markets were higher today due to the big break in the US dollar. The US dollar is down a full point today at 89.2.  This is the lowest the dollar has been since December 2014.  A lower US dollar is good for US exports.  Beans are getting closer to my target objective of 10.00 March and 10.20 Nov futures.  Be thinking about making more sales if you have not done so already.  Start at current levels and scale into any more of a rally.  Corn broke through resistance today and finished at 3.56 March futures.  There is solid resistance at 3.60 March.  Just as an FYI, I have mentioned previously that basis will need to be locked in by March or April just like last year.  If we get another 10-15 cents on this rally basis might not even hold that long.  Today we saw PNW values drop 4 cents on a small nickel move higher.  Be aware that there is an abundance of corn to move off the farm and it can move in a hurry if the price is right.  Corn was moving pretty heavy already today. 

Beans finished higher once again today after trading lower much of the session. The Argentina forecast continues to look dry though the first part of Feb.  Informa was out today and put their 2018 bean acres at 91.2 vs 91.4 previous and 90.2 last year.  If we assume a trend yield, the USDA's carryout at 470 million is not big enough as it would be closer to 550 million.  The other danger is if we don't meet the USDA export number.   You see how we are not painting a very nice picture.  Don't miss out on pricing beans near 10.00 March and 10.20 Nov futures if we get that opportunity again.  Informa pegged 2018 corn acres at 89.2 million vs 89.7 previous and 90.2 last year.  If we assume a trend yield of 174.5 bpa carryout would be approx. 2,110 billion vs USDA at 2,477.  There could be a potential story there with a US weather issue, but it is still pretty comfortable at the moment.  As we know February is insurance month.  Corn is due for a bounce, so maybe that will give us a reason?

The Sunday night forecast had it dry in Argentina for the next 10 days and that is all it took to move beans to a new high for the move today. November beans managed to close over 10.00 for the first time since Dec 7th.  Looking at the charts we should have a chance at 10.20 Nov futures on this move, but it better happen quickly in my opinion.  We don't need to have a set back because it will be hard to recover from.  The only bullish news we have lies on Argentine weather and we all know weather can change in an instant.  The weather caused the funds to cover some of their shorts, which was the main reason for the move today.  Beans are moving at these levels and will continue to do so as we move higher.  Have orders working near 10.20 Nov and 10.00 March futures.  Export inspections were out today even though the Government is on shutdown.  Beans were at the high end of expectations, but corn was poor.  Corn was unable to hold early gains once again.   

Export sales were excellent this morning as the corn exports nearly doubled the expectations at 1.883 mmt. I am not sure how our estimates could have been that off as the guys doing the exporting should have a closer idea than that!  We knew the corn business would show up in a big way in Jan, but the question remains how long will it last?  Bean export sales were also better than expected at 1.24 mmt.  Beans broke out this morning and traded 10.00 Nov 18 futures, but couldn't manage to hold those gains for more than a half hour.  We did however still manage to finish in the green and above the 50 and 100 day moving averages.  If we get a chance to hedge Nov 18 futures around 10.20 futures we better be ready to jump.  Argentina is the only real concern at the moment, but the Brazil crop coupled with massive US acres should offset any losses in my opinion.  I would have some orders working there just in case we bounce up and touch it.  We don't want to miss out this time around.  Bean movement was heavy today, both old and new crop. 

It pretty sad when we can say corn had its largest single day rally in nearly 2 months yesterday and we were up a whopping nickel, but it just happened. Today we lost a third of that rally down a penny and a half.  Yesterday was the second day we have closed over the 50 day moving average since July, but we couldn’t manage to do it again today.  Farmer selling has slowed once again after a flurry of sales yesterday of price later grain.  Other bushels remain locked in the bin.  Ethanol production recovered in a big way this week after last week’s disappointment.  There are still some experts that want to talk about dry areas in Argentina, but the fear doesn't seem too great at the moment.  As we know however, things can change in an instant.  Warm temps are expected and if they miss the next rain events it will become a larger issue once again.  New crop beans saw some marketing action today as we are back over 9.00 cash.  Otherwise it was very quiet. 

South American weather continues to be ok at the moment with only a small percentage of Argentina currently considered to be in danger. Brazil continues to look like it will make up for most of Argentina's problem areas.  Beans traded lower most of the session, but finished slightly on the positive side.  Corn was the leader today up nearly a nickel.  Fund short covering looks to be the sole explanation for now.  The corn:bean ratio could also be helping as we may need to buy some corn acres back before spring.  Last year we added 6.4 million bean acres and dropped 3.8 million corn acres and the current ratio would imply we need more bean acres.   I don't think we need to favor bean acres because the current economics are going to sway the farmer to plant more bean acres.  Banks and lenders might also push more bean acres due to less input costs in tougher times.  Corn basis continues to improve as movement remains slow.  As I mentioned before, the next couple months will be our best opportunity on basis before summer movement begins.

News was light today as we continue to trade Friday's USDA report news after the holiday. Corn tried to bounce overnight, but traded both sides during the day.  Beans gapped higher on the overnight and finished near the highs for the day.  Argentina weather continues to improve as they received more rain over the weekend.  I would have guessed beans would have been lower today on that news alone, but short covering pulled rank following the report instead.  Export inspections had corn at 23 million bushel and beans at 45 million bushel.  Not bad, but if we are going to sustain any type of bounce we need more demand.  Current supplies are just too big at the moment to think we are going to get any sizeable rally.  Corn has been stuck in a 30 cent range for 4 months and there is nothing about to change that.  Beans have had a bigger range, but the same story goes for beans.  NOPA bean crush was a record 166.4 million bushel vs 160.2 last year.  That was the tad bit of friendly news for the day.

Overall the report was pretty lame besides the increase in wheat acres. Otherwise the report was neutral/negative to corn and neutral beans.  Corn yield jumped to 176.6 up 1.2 bushel from the Dec estimate.  Total corn production was up 26 million bushel to 14,604 million bushel.  Dec 1 stocks were at 12.516 billion vs 12.386 in Dec.  US corn carryout was 2.477 billion bushel vs 2.437 in Dec.  World corn carryout was at 206.57 million tonnes vs 204.08 in Dec.  The USDA did not lower exports, which was very surprising to me.   Otherwise there were no real shockers.  Beans traded up 10 today off a neutral report mainly because they could and the funds have been shorting them for the last 4 weeks.  Bean yield dropped .4 bushel to 49.1 bpa.  Total production was down 33 million bushel from the Dec guess.  Dec 1 stocks were at 3.157 billion bushels vs 2.898 in Dec.  US bean carryout was at 470 million, which was up as expected from 445 in Dec.  The big change was a decrease of 65 million to exports.  The world bean carryout was 98.57 million tonnes up slightly from 98.32 in Dec.  Total wheat acres planted were up about 2.6 million acres, which cause wheat to trade down 12 today and also spilled some selling over into the corn market.

Beans continue their trend lower as we make another new low for the move today. As I mentioned the other day, 9.40 March futures looks like a good short term target.  If the report is bearish tomorrow there is a chance we could break further to around 9.22 March futures.  I think that level holds for now one way or another as we have already dropped 77 cents since Dec 5th.  Export sales were nothing to brag about as corn was at 17 million bushel and beans were at 22 million bushel.  CONAB was out this morning with their Brazil crop estimates.  They raised the corn crop .1 MMT to 92.3 MMT.  Not much of a change, but it still indicates their crop is not getting any smaller.  CONAB raised their Brazilian bean estimate to 110.4 MMT, up 1.2 MMT.  Brazilian FC Stone thinks it could be closer to 112 MMT.  Agrural bumped their estimate all the way up to 114.0 MMT, which would equal last year’s record crop.  It looks to me as though the Brazilian crops will make up for most of Argentina's decline at the moment, but there is still a long way to go and the weather can change in an instant.  The USDA will be out at 11:00 AM tomorrow.  Reminder the markets will be closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr Holiday.

Corn gained back half of yesterday's losses, but still failed to trade back above 3.50 futures. Open interest is on the rise again, which means funds are adding to an already near record short position.  Their thoughts remain that we will see a higher 2017 crop and also lower exports on this report.  Then we need to couple that with more rain chances in Argentina and a near perfect Brazil crop at the moment.  Estimates were out for the report Friday as well.  Corn carryout is estimated at 2.431 billion bushel vs USDA at 2.437.  Dec 1 stocks are estimated at 12.431 billion bushel vs the current USDA at 12.386.  Beans were also lower today on better South American weather.  Open interest is also rising on soybeans this week, which is also new shorts.  US carryout is estimated at 472 mil vs USDA at 445.  Dec 1 stocks are estimated at 3.181 billion bushel vs last year at 2.898.  The 2018 Brazil bean crop is estimated 110.3 mmt vs USDA at 108.0.  The 2018 Argentine crop is estimated at 56.3 mmt vs USDA at 57.0.  Informa will be out on Thursday with their update guess at the South American crop.  We will have to wait and see what Friday has in store.  The URL below helps sum up the new Section 199A 20% business tax deduction for the farmers who receive distributions from Coops.  This tax break is picking up a lot of press in the grain industry at the moment, so please make sure you make yourselves aware of it.

//blogs.claconnect.com/agribusiness/how-much-is-the-co-op-deduction-really-worth/

More rain in Argentina over the weekend caused beans to sell off this morning as they traded down a dime at one point. There remains talk that Brazil crop will make up for any damages to the Argentina crop as they could match last year’s record yields.  USDA will be out on Friday at 11:00 AM to give their updated guesses.  Export inspections this morning were as expected; beans were at 43 mil bushel and corn was at 33 mil bushel.  Friday's report could be a very interesting one.  US corn yield is expected to increase from their previous guess.  US bean yield should be very similar to the previous guess.  On farm Dec. 1 corn stocks could possibly be at a record level with the farmer still owning a higher percentage than normal.  There also remains chatter of lower corn acres next year, but yield could offset some of that difference.  Either way we should see a very healthy corn carryout.  I would suspect on bearish news 3.35 Mar corn is in play, which is where the Dec contract expired.  On bullish news 3.60 to 3.70 would be the objective.  Personally I don't see anything real friendly is going to come of this report.

Beans popped higher on the overnight up a dime at one point, but by the coffee break they came back to only up a couple right where they finished the day. Meal was the leader again today on continued Argentina weather concerns.  The next 7 days remain dry with some more rain chances on the 8-9 day forecast.  We will have to wait and see what materializes out of that system.  Export sales were pathetic to say the least, which also part of the reason beans broke off the highs overnight.  Corn export sales were a dismal 4 million bushel.  Bean export sales were 20 mil bushels.  Jan thru March we should see a major uptick in corn exports which is much needed, but then they are expected to tail off once again.  Farmer corn movement remains very light and basis continues to do the work for now.  Next Friday Jan 12th is the next USDA report.  Will they lower their export expectations?  That is most likely the biggest question at the moment.  The South American yield projections will be interesting too.  The Brazil crop should increase with the Argentina crop decreasing to possibly just offset the difference. 

There seemed to be very good weekend rain coverage in both Brazil and Argentina over the weekend. Brazil continues to look excellent and the forecast continues to look good as well with very little concern.  Argentina continues to worry about moisture, but conditions have improved lately.  Their next two week forecast looks to dry out, which is why beans traded higher much of the day today.  The other tidbit of friendly news today was how the cold weather may have stressed the winter wheat crop.  That should help support corn here as well.  Weak export sales pulled beans slightly lower for a while today, but they recovered into the close.  Corn export inspections were at 27 million bushels and beans inspections were at 42 million bushel.  Will the USDA lower exports on the Jan 12th report since both remain behind pace?  If they do it would increase an already large carryout and not be supportive to prices.  

Today was a very quiet day in the grains as the year comes to a close. Beans saw a light amount of short covering today as some Argentina weather models lowered the expected precip for the weekend.  Like I mentioned yesterday the forecast over the long weekend will determine which direction we start to trade next week.  Beans finished the year at 9.61 March futures down about 30 cents from where last year finished.  Corn finished the year at 3.51 down a whopping penny from last year's 3.52 finish.  Corn export sales were at 49 mil bushel, which was once again higher than the trade estimate, but corn still couldn't manage trade in the green today.  We are still behind the normal pace by about 38 million bushel. 

Have a good New Year!!!!

Beans were down again today and finished below last week’s low of 9.57 March futures. Beans have now traded lower 13 of the last 16 sessions.  9.52 March futures should be the first level of support and then it goes to 9.37 for the second next level of support.  Argentina weather increased the amount of precip for the weekend, which eases some concerns for the moment.  They are talking 1/4 to 3/4 inch with 50% coverage expected.  They also added a system for more rain chances for Jan 7th.  With the long holiday weekend the Monday night SA forecast will determine which direction we want to move next week.  Corn remains stuck around 3.50 March futures as we tested that level again at one point this morning.    

The USDA announced a sale of 110,000 tonnes of soybeans to China this morning. In the month of November, China imports totaled 8.68 million tonnes, which is up 10.8% from last year.  For the year they are up 14.8%.  Half of their purchases have come from Brazil as they have now shipped 29% more than last year at this time.  Their favorable weather last year increased their protein, which is a bonus to the Chinese buyer.  Most weather models continue to show drier weather for S. Brazil and Argentina for the next two weeks with temps over 100 degrees this weekend.  Central and Northern Brazil are supposed to receive beneficial rains over the next 7 next seven days and remain nearly ideal thus far.  Corn was up a penny on the day and is nearing the 50 day moving average at 3.55 3/4 March futures.  Corn has not traded over the 50 day moving average since October 25th.  If the funds want to liquidate some of their massive short positions ahead of the new year we have a shot to do it this week, but otherwise their remains no news that tells us we need to rally.  Jan 12th is the next USDA report.

Rains over the weekend were as expected in Argentina. Some of the dryer areas received as much as 2 inches.  Yet the market still wants to add a weather premium into soybeans due to temps rising into the triple digits over the next two weeks.  Export inspections were as expected for beans this morning.  We are currently at 44.9% of the expected USDA estimate vs an average of 52.1% for this time period.  Corn continues to be stuck near 3.50 futures.  USDA announced 134k tonnes to Mexico this morning, which is routine business.  Export inspections were also as expected for corn.  Funds are now short over 220,000 contracts, which is the largest short since November 14th.  What kind of news is it going to take to get the funds to cover some of their positions?

Beans continue to leak lower as Argentina seems to continue to improve for the moment. The forecasts for the coming two weeks seem to cast some doubt, but for now it remains ok.  Export sales were off the charts for both corn and beans today, which was great to see.  Cheap grain will do that!  Corn exports were listed at 61 million bushels, well over expectations.  Beans export sales were 64 million bushel, which was at the upper end of expectations.  The negative piece of news for beans on the wire today was that China is going to tighten their import quality restrictions from the US.  They are going to cut their allowance for FM in soybeans in half.  That is not good news for exports to China out of the Gulf as they seem to ship higher FM. Grain markets close at 12:05 tomorrow for Christmas.

The forecast in Argentina added more moisture in the 2 week forecast and the bean market showed the results of that. This break in the board may get these bean processors to start pushing for beans again.  Rail bean basis is starting to show signs of life as well on this break in the futures.  The near term downside target remains 9.30 on the Jan futures.  If we achieve that type of level I think it will hold for now.  There is a lot of weather to get through in SA yet.  Our next report is on Jan 12th and that is where we start looking into next year’s US crop.  Beans acres are forecasted to be higher by just over a million acres and corn acres are projected to be down nearly 800,000 acres from last year according to Informa's guess.  At some point corn might have to try and buy some acres back?  I still think we will get another shot at 10.00 Nov 18 beans and 4.00 Dec 18 corn, but we need to be ready to start selling something if we get there.  Start putting together a file for N/C 18 if you have not done so already and figure out what your inputs and costs will be so you know what your breakeven is.  Be ready to pounce when you can make a profit. 

Very little news today with rains taking place in Argentina over the weekend. One source said there was about 70% coverage.  There is also more chances towards the end of the week.  The extended forecast looks drier though for now.  Export inspections were much stronger than expected, but rains in SA still trumped that news.  Also we continue to be well behind export pace to meet the USDA expectations. We made a new low for the move on futures today with 9.30 Jan futures looking like the next target.  Corn didn't do much at all today.  Export inspections were on the low end of expectations.  The 3.46 1/2 low from Friday managed to hold again today as we tested it a couple of times today.  Basis seems to have stalled out at current levels for now, but might need to do more work if the futures don't want to help out down the road. 

Both corn and beans put in a new low for the move today, but closed slightly off those levels. The corn low was a new march contract low at 3.465.  Remember that Dec expired at 3.36, so that would be a solid target for March futures at the moment.  There were some more welcoming sales on the wire this morning; Corn to Costa Rica and beans to China and unknown.  The NOPA bean crush was 163.546 million bushel vs an estimate of 163.2.  Informa was also out today with their updated guesses.  They estimated the corn yield at 176.6 bpa vs their November guess at 173.4 bpa.  They also slightly reduced their acres for next year down 754,000 acres to 89.675 million acres.  Informa's Dec bean yield was unchanged from Nov at 49.7 bpa.  They also raised next year’s bean acres to 91.387 million acres from 89.6.  That is not friendly beans for next year.  Let’s see what happens next week ahead of the holiday.  Have a great weekend!

A wetter 6-10 day forecast for central and southern Argentina and a wetter 11-15 day forecast for central and northern Argentina were to blame for today's soybean action. Beans are putting in a triple bottom on the charts at 9.67 Jan futures.  We were at this level once in early October and once in the middle of November.  If 9.67 does not hold the first set of support is at 9.63, then it goes all the way to 9.47, and then to the August low of 9.30.  Basis may need to improve on beans as well near term if someone needs to buy beans.  Farmer movement on beans at these levels is null.  Corn traded another very tight 2 cent range again today.  Basis continues to improve and do the work. Farmer movement was heavier today than it has been lately.  Does it take 3.00 or 3.25 cash to move corn or are the bins locked up already?  Dec futures expired at noon today at 3.36 1/4, so it will be interesting to see if March futures feel like they need to trade down to that level. 

Yesterday's report was neutral to slightly bearish as the carryout’s remain very comfortable. The corn carryout was put at 2.437 billion as the only change to the balance sheet was ethanol use up 50 mil bushel.  The biggest question mark remains to be if corn export expectations are too high?  Bean carryout was pegged at 445 million up 20 million bushel from last month.  The USDA may also have bean export demand overstated, which would create even more beans to an already healthy carryout.  South American weather continues to have chances of rain, which is keeping the pressure on.  The good news we had today in grains is that the Fed's announced a .25% interest rate hike today, which will keep the pressure on the US dollar.  A lower US dollar could bring in more export business.  Farmer sales have nearly shut off entirely as today was one of the quietest days since harvest.  Corn had a 2 cent range and beans had a 5 cent range today.  Dec corn expires tomorrow and the fear remains that March will trade down to the expiring Dec futures levels before too long.  Weather in SA remains the main watch now until the January report.

Overnight markets were higher on both corn and beans. The USDA announced a couple beans sales this morning consisting of 268,000 MT of beans to China and 129,000 MT of beans to Unknown.  Corn sales have been non-existent, but rumors continue to swirl about China and Korea.  None of which ever seem to get confirmed.  Brazil and Argentina weather look to be improving near term with more chances of rain in the 5-7 day and the 11-15 day forecast.  The forecast further out is still questionable and will cause some volatility.  The money loves to trade a forecast before a problem actually occurs, which can give us great opportunities.  There are thoughts of a larger bean crop in Brazil, which would alleviate some of the loss in Argentina and could keep a lid on any type of rally.   Weekend forecasts will set the direction for next week, but the USDA report on Tuesday will be the difference maker.  Have a good weekend!

The grain markets continue to trade around South American weather and now the lower Brazilian Real added some pressure as well. Overnight Argentina's Cordoba, Santa Fe and Buenos Aires provinces saw 1/4 to 3/4 in of rainfall, which caused the bean market to trade below yesterday’s lows.  There are also a couple more chances in the next 10 days.  We have already managed to fill the gap from Sunday nights trade.  9.94 Jan futures should have been support, but we closed at 9.92, which opens the door down to 9.85 as the next level of support.  Bean export sales were very good at just over 2 mmt.  We still remain well behind the average pace at 59.3% of the USDA estimate vs a 5 year average of 73.7%.  Corn export sales were on the low end of expectations at 876k metric tons.  Corn sales are at 46.8% of the USDA forecast vs an average of 53%.  The next USDA report will be on Tuesday, December 12th. 

There seems to be some continued panic that Argentina and S. Brazil are too dry and the forecast continues to look drier than normal as well. This feels a lot like last July when the market rallied on perceived dryness, but yet the problem never occurred.  It’s too early to tell if the problem will exist as the farmers are not even done planting at this point.  They are behind as the farmer has slowed planting due to dryness, but will it amount to a yield problem?  It’s just too early to tell at this point.  The Jan bean contract made a 4 month high this morning at 10.15 futures and beans are moving.  New crop beans have also been very popular today as we touched 9.30 cash.  The best chance we had to price beans last year was 9.40, so this might not be a bad place to start.  Soybean meal continues to lead the way as it was up 6 dollars again today and traded within about $5 of its lifetime high of 350 bucks.  Corn just cannot seem to follow along at all even with the strength in beans.  Oats and wheat continue their down trend as well. 

Overnight markets had corn up 1 and beans up 10 on a drier Argentina and S. Brazil forecast for the next 2 weeks. Beans actually gapped higher on the open last night and traded up 14 at one point this morning.  The bad news is that they failed to hold the 10.00 Jan futures level at the close, which is not good technically.  Corn put in a key reversal today as we traded over 3.60 March futures, but closed back at 3.53.  It looks as though this range will continue to trade between 3.45 and 3.60 March futures.  There were hopes of 3.70 March trading in the near future, but today’s reversal may have put that in jeopardy.  There were no sales on the announcements this morning.  Export inspections were very good for beans at 66 mil bushels, but corn was pathetic at 23 mil bushels.  There remains talk that China will come to bat on more corn and beans, but sales remain slow.  If they do come to bat will they buy US or SA origin?  Beans were a big mover early today, with some even starting to make sales for New Crop 2018 as we hit 9.20 and 9.25 cash.  Corn sales have come to a halt as the bin doors start to get locked shut as the weather turns. 

There really wasn't a whole lot of news today as the markets traded higher today. It could be just as simple as new month buying.  Corn did manage to close over 3.58 March futures, which technically opens the door to 3.70 futures.  That is the area I would target for now to get some more sales on the books.  Basis continues to improve on the nearby cash market, but the JFM market has seemed to stall out for now.  Ethanol plants continue to try and buy as many nearby bushels as possible to try and stay full as bushels become harder to find in the winter months.  There were more rumors once again of Chinese corn purchases, but the only sale on the wire this morning was 130k tonnes of corn to unknown.  For the week corn was up 4 and beans were up 1 on the futures, but corn basis improved 7 cents on the week.  Bean movement picked up today for the first time in a while.  Corn movement is slowing, but there is still some movement.

Corn traded lower early in the session on a large amount of deliveries in the Dec contract. By mid-morning we rebounded and traded higher the balance of the day.  Beans on the other hand traded down the entire session.  9.86 Jan futures is the 50 day moving average and we closed a quarter cent below it.  Does that open the door to more selling tomorrow?  The Brazil crop seems to be improving with weather as some think the crop could equal last year at this point.  The EPA was out today and left the majority of the mandate unchanged, which was disappointing to the grains.  We did have a couple more export sales announced this morning.  We had 525k tonnes of beans to China, which is the second day in a row for a China announcement.  We also had a couple sales of sorghum announced.   Corn sales are currently at 45% of the USDA forecast vs an average of 51.5%.  Bean sales are currently at 44.3% vs an average of 49.7%.  We need the sale announcements to continue in a big way.

Sorry I have been out of the office the last few days, so the comment section has been missing. We had a couple sales announced this morning; 263,000 tonnes of soybeans to China and 101,000 tonnes of corn to unknown.  We have been awaiting more announcements that would confirm the 8-12 cargoes of corn being sold to China last week.  Hopefully this is the first announcement of many.  Corn basis seems to keep improving as we get out into Jan, Feb, Mar.  The nearby markets remain at a steep discount to the differed months.  The processor continues to try and buy as much corn as they can before the bin doors are locked shut.  I have heard of many ethanol plants running full on storage, yet lead the market in bids because the price is right.  Ethanol production for this week was at 7.462 mil barrels.  Corn used to produce the ethanol was 110.93 mil bushels.  To meet the USDA estimate for corn used for ethanol we need to average 104.06 mil bushel per week.  Some news to watch for tomorrow is that the EPA is expected to rule on the bio-fuel mandates. 

The markets seem to want to consolidate at these levels for the holiday. Just a reminder that the grain markets are normal hours tomorrow, closed on Thursday, and open from 8:30 - 12:05 on Friday.  GPC will not buy grain after the 12:05 close on Friday.  The South American forecasts continue to look very good at the moment.  Brazil's forecast is calling for nearly daily rains in the next 7 days with totals ranging from 2-5" range.  Exports sales remain behind pace with corn 44% behind last year and beans 13% behind last year.  We did have a bean sale announced this morning of 130,000 mt to China, which is routine business.  It has been a while since we have seen any export sales announced.  One of the big parts to the corn equation that I have mentioned recently is that funds were near record shorts on corn.  On Thursday last week they were short nearly 250,000 contracts.  Today they are short approximately 219,000 contracts.  That means they covered over 30,000 contracts in 3 days and moved the market only 9 cents.  Will they continue to cover shorts into month end or will they stall out?  Corn harvest was listed at 90% complete and bean harvest was listed at 96 % complete last night.

Corn and beans both had some buying show up as we got into the afternoon after trading lower most of the morning. Export inspections were on the low end of expectations for corn at 25 mil bushel.  Bean inspections were on the upper end of expectations at 78 mil bushel.  Rumor’s remain that China and Japan had been in the market for corn this past week, but nothing was confirmed on the wire this morning.  PNW basis continues to perk up for Jan, Feb.  Local basis continues to firm on the front end as well as the processors continue to try and buy corn before it gets locked away in the bin until summer.  Corn finished the day at 3.45 Dec.  If we can break through 3.45 it would be friendly to the technicals and we could bounce to 3.56 Dec.  That would potentially move another good chunk of corn into the market.  Funds remain near record short corn and if they decide to bail on some contracts before month end it would help us get to that 3.56 Dec area fairly quickly.  This week is a holiday week that typically has very light volume, but today that was not the case.   For those of you with HTA's and Basis contracts, we need to be rolled or priced by next week.

Today was supposed to be a quiet trading day with a slightly firmer tone heading into a holiday week as the funds do some short covering. That was exactly the case waking up this morning until about 9:30 when we found some buyers.  The week was shaping up to be pretty dreadful, but with today’s rally the Chicago board had corn unchanged and beans up 3 on the week.  Basis has improved, so cash wise we have improved.  I have been looking all day for a good explanation for this rally, but am yet to find any facts.  Here are a few possibilities.  On a political front, NAFTA conversations are starting once again and are rumored to be going better this time around.  There are China rumors in the corn market, but nothing is confirmed.  Forecasters for South America are looking for a dry December in Argentina, but December is a ways out and today things look good.  Those are the potential bullish stories of the day.  Beans are going to be the commodity to lead us back if we can make it happen, just as they did today.  Funds are expected to be at record shorts on corn when the Commitment of Traders report comes out today.  We all know how fast the funds can liquidate their positions when they change tune.   One trader said today, “If this rally was on a Monday, and not a Friday leading into a short holiday week…it would feel much more like a real rally”.  That might be a good way to sum it up, but next week will tell the real story.

Corn made a new low for the third day in a row as we approach my 3.35 Dec target. Some traders still think we could trade 3.25 and possibly 3.15.  Export sales did nothing to help the cause as both corn and beans were below expectations.  Corn exports were listed at 37 mil bu.  Total commitments are now at 801 mil vs last year at 1,088 mil bu.  Bean exports were at 41 mil bu.  Total commitments are now at 1,197 mil bu vs last year at 1,414 mil bu.  Both corn and beans continue behind pace, but look to be picking up for JFM.  Low prices should be bringing business, but SA is back in our business come spring and summer.  Informa was out today and was looking for larger corn acres at 91.4 mil vs last year at 90.4.  They had bean acres at 89.6 mil vs last year at 90.2.  All these signs just keep poking the bear in corn.  What are we going to have to do to get these funds to cover their shorts?  Weather issues are the easy answer for a quick change, but demand would help as well.  The funds were short over 230,000 contracts as of yesterday and added more today.  That is a total of 46% of our current carryout at the moment.

Beans managed to bounce back today after a few ugly days in a row. The October NOPA crush number showed a crush of 164.2 mln bushel, which was as expected.  South American weather looks favorable at the moment, but some drier trends look to be developing.  I would expect a volatile weather market as we get into the South American growing season.  Corn traded a slightly new contract low of 3.37 Dec futures before trying to trade slightly higher.  There was a very small 2 cent range today.  The farmer is still selling corn at these levels and looking for a way to re-own it using options or straight futures.  Basis continues to pick up on the board break, but we are starting to see a bunch of elevator interest at current levels.  Once the business gets covered into JFM can the rail markets hold these types of levels or we will see a repeat of last year where basis improves initially, but cannot sustain.   With large yields, a carryout pushing 2.5 billion bushel, and a slow paced export market at the moment I would say basis struggles once again.  Be looking to get basis locked in between now and March similar to last year.   Once the bin doors open again this spring it might be too late.

Corn breaks into a new low territory and finished right on the lows for the day. The funds continue to want to pile on the shorts for now.  Yesterday they added nearly 10k contracts and today should be similar.  We did have the USDA announce a small sale to unknown today.  Cheap grain will add business and we need it!  Beans also continued to work lower today after breaking through the 50, 100, and 200 day moving average yesterday.  9.63 Jan should be the next level of support for beans.  South American weather continues to improve, which is also causing funds to liquidate some of their long position in soybeans. 

Beans broke through their 50, 100, and 200 day average about 10:30 a.m. hitting sell stops along the way and finished the day down 13 cents. The main news story that caused the move was South American weather.  Over the weekend Northern Brazil had widespread rainfall, which alleviated some concerns.  There are also some thoughts that US soybean exports will be down 100-150 million from the current USDA guess.  Weekly export inspections were close to expectations, but still far behind last year.  Weekly bean exports were pegged at 77 mil bu vs 108 mil bu last year.  Corn traded down 1-2 cents all day.  Export inspections on corn were also slightly lower than expectations at 15 mil bu vs 27 mil bu last year.  There just isn't much news to equal out that monster USDA yield they gave us last week.  The only thing the bull has to go on at the moment is that the funds are still holding onto that large record short position.  Harvest progress will be out tonight.  Beans are expected to be 95% complete and corn is expected around 85% complete.

The good news today is the corn market decided not to break lower at this point. There are a lot of ugly levels being picked out by experts for low Dec corn targets to trade after yesterday's 175.4 USDA yield estimate.  I have heard levels as low as 3.15, 3.25, or 3.35 Dec futures.  I hope none of which will be achieve anytime soon.  The good news we have going for us at the moment is that the funds are already at record short levels.  If they would not have been at record levels shorts yesterday's reaction would have been much worse.   Exports pace has picked up this month and we need that to continue.  With a carryout of 2.487 billion corn it is going to be tough to find a spark to get this market to rally and find some buyers for a while.  Basis is on improving as processors continue to worry about this crop getting locked away until summer.  SA weather is also improving as Brazil sees rain and Argentina is seeing dryer weather allowing them to catch up with planting pace.  US weather looks great for next week to finish up with harvest.  Have a good weekend!

Yuck! The USDA threw another curveball today.  Everyone was expecting an increase to the corn yield, but nobody expected a 3.6 bushel increase up to 175.4 bpa.  That is better than last year’s record crop, which was at 174.6 bpa (what happened to those poor crop ratings).  That puts the US corn production up a whopping 300 million bushel at 14.578 billion bushel!  They also made a few minor changes to the carryout with feed usage up 75 million.  They also raised corn exports by 75 million, which makes absolutely no sense to me when we are way behind pace.  These changes put the carryout for 17/18 at a massive 2.487 billion bushel up 150 million from their October estimate.  Corn was trading slightly higher as the report came out, but put in a new low at 3.4075 around 1:00 pm.  Tonight’s close below the previous low of 3.425 sets us up for some more down side.  3.35 Dec may be the next target.  On the bean side of the report everyone was expecting a lower yield number, but the USDA came out unchanged from Oct at 49.5 bpa.  US production was pegged at 4.425 billion bushels about unchanged from their previous guess.  The new carryout is estimated at 425 million down 5 million from Oct.  Basis is starting to pop already on soybeans as the processor is worried about winter coverage very early.  Corn basis is showing some signs of life also as the corn processor has little deferred coverage as well.

There was not much happening in today's grain markets as we await tomorrows report. Beans are right up against the 10.00 Jan futures heading into tomorrow as the market is expecting a slight drop in the bean yields.  Corn just continues to hover around 3.50 Dec futures as the farmer continues to sell a few bushels over the scale ahead of the report.  Most believe we will see the yield jump .5 to 1.5 bpa, but a neutral report may be friendly as the funds remain at record shorts.  Export sales will be out in the morning.  Today's ethanol crush number was the largest we have seen at 109.99 million bushel of corn.  The other part to that is that even with the large grind, ethanol stocks still managed to drop 400k barrels on the week.  That is some impressive demand for ethanol.  Other news is quiet heading into the report.  The two levels to watch tomorrow are the 10.00 Jan futures and the 3.42 Dec corn low.  As always, with any kind of USDA surprise, both levels can be violated tomorrow.  Be on your toes if you are looking to make sales or have some sell orders working if you have levels in mind you want to sell.  We know how volatile these USDA reports can be.

Beans bounced off of Friday's beat down up 7 cents. Thoughts remain that the USDA will lower their soybean yield estimate.  Corn tried to trade higher most of the day, but finished the day unchanged.  Estimates were out today for the USDA report and had the corn yield at 172.4 bpa vs 171.8 in Oct.  I am not sure that is high enough.  The estimate of the soybean yield is at 49.3 vs 49.5 in Oct.  Exports inspections did nothing to excite the market today.  Corn inspections were at 17 mil bu vs last year at 36 mil bu.  Bean inspections were 91 mil bu vs last year at 98 mil bu.  We remain well behind pace on both corn and beans.  Managed money is now short 202,763 corn and long 40,612 soybeans.  Corn is nearing a record short and usually we don't trade record levels very long.  If we can get through the report Thursday without anything "too" bearish, we may have a shot at breaking out of our range to the upside.  Everyone is leaning towards a bearish corn report, so that always makes me question our thinking.  The biggest issue remains finding demand.  Harvest progress will be out tonight.  Corn is estimated at 65-70% and beans are estimated at 90% complete.

Today was a perfect example of what takes place when we remain in a large carryout environment. Beans managed to rally 15 cents in the past 2 days on possible new month buying, but couldn't manage to hold the gains as we finished unchanged for the week.  When carryouts are large, rallies remain possible, but they are typically brief and not sustainable.  The good news for soybeans is that they didn't break through support at 9.81 futures.  Everyone seems to be on the same page for the report next week as corn yields should increase and bean yields could slightly decrease, but it will still be a close watch as one never knows what the USDA has in store.  Exports remain the other big watch at the moment.  Soybean sales are equal to 50% of the USDA target vs an average of 64% for this time.  Corn sales are the same story and are currently equal to 36% of the total USDA estimate vs an average of 45% for this time.  To illustrate how much the Brazil bean exports are taking away from our US exports; there are some grain sources that think China will buy around 5.0 mmt of Brazil beans in the 4th quarter this year, whereas last year they only bought half that much.  It has taken them a long time to work through their record crop and it is putting a big dent in US sales.

We have had a lot of things happen since yesterday's comments, so let’s try and get everything up to speed. Last night FC Stone came out and estimated the corn yield at 173.7 bpa, which was an increase from last month at 169.2 bpa.  They estimated the bean yield at 49.9 bpa, which was unchanged from last month.  Informa came out today and agreed that the corn would take a big jump and indicated 173.4 bpa.  The USDA is currently using 171.8 bpa.  Informa put the bean yield at 49.7 bpa, which was very close to both the FC Stone guess and the USDA Oct guess at 49.5 bpa.  So everyone seems to agree that corn crop is getting bigger and the bean crop is still very good.  The best news we had announced today was a massive corn sale to Mexico.  They reported a sale of just over 1.3 mmt, 846k mt for this year and 510k mt for next year.  That is just what the doctor ordered and is one of the top 10 largest single sales in our history.  With that being said however, Mexico is our biggest importer of corn and this could be seen as routine business for the most part.  Export sales this morning were on the low side of expectations for corn and on the high side of expectations for beans. 

Both the corn and beans traded higher today as we remain stuck in the same ranges. Ethanol production was up for the 4th week in a row, which is about the only thing supportive for corn at the moment.  As I mentioned yesterday, funds are near record shorts, corn export pace is very slow, and final corn yields are trending higher.  The Nov 9th could potentially set up for a raise in the yield and drop in the exports, which could send us into new lows.  If that is the case it could be a good chance to find a way to re-own sales we are forced to make during harvest.  Just to paint a picture of how poor corn exports currently are; the USDA is currently forecasting 17/18 exports at 47 mmt vs last year at 58.3 mmt.  Some fear this year could be as low as 42 mmt.  That is a massive amount of corn to add to an already big carryout if we cannot pick up some more export business.  SA supply remains the key factor on both corn and beans.  We will need to see a hit to production to see any major changes.

The bean complex tried to trade higher most of the day, but finished at unchanged. Harvest progress on soybeans came in at 83% vs last week at 70%.  Yield reports continue to be trending lower on beans.  Another positive note is the crush margins in China are starting to pick up, so will they be back for more beans?  The US farmer has been a big seller of beans though out harvest, but I would expect that to slow once the crop is in the bin.   Corn traded lower the entire day as more corn yields are above expectations.  US export demand remains sluggish, which could cause the USDA to lower their exports on the upcoming reports.  Some thoughts are that US corn production could be up 50-250 million bushels.  FC stone will be out tomorrow night and Informa will be out Thursday with their estimates.  The USDA will be out on Nov. 9th.  There just isn't anything too positive in the corn market at the moment.  Look to make new lows in the coming weeks as open interest is picking up again as funds are adding to short positions.

Not much action today in the grain markets. Beans were slightly lower once again on improving Brazil weather, weaker Brazilian Real, and heavy South American farmer selling.  Beans feel like we may be ready to test 9.50 support as we have been basically stuck between 10.00 and 9.50 futures since Sept 1st.  With the Brazil currency crashing it is making US export less competitive once again.  Export sales were very good for both corn and beans today.  Corn was at 1.288 mln mt vs expectations of .750k - 1.25 mln mt.  Bean exports were at 2.129 mln mt vs expectations of 1.25 - 1.60 mln mt.  Both were very impressive, but we need that to continue.  Corn yields remain better than expected in a lot of reports.  Yesterday Dec 18 futures pushed up against 4.00 once again.  Be thinking hard about getting started on some HTA's for next year’s crop.  Nov 18 beans over 10.00 remain a good place to start there as well.  Big carryout’s remain in the forecast for both corn and beans for the next few years, so if you can pencil a profit let’s get started.  Carryout’s will not get much smaller until we have an issue with production and it’s tough to rely on weather issues.

Overnight markets had beans up 7 and corn up 3, but once again could not hold the gains throughout the day. 3.55 Dec corn and 9.83 Nov beans seem to be the level where the buying stops.  Open interest on corn is now at 1.55 million contracts, which is the highest level since April 2011.  The funds continue to hold record shorts as they feel the risk to move higher is limited with a 2.3 billion carryout.  Farmer selling could also pick up as we are only 38% harvested at this point, which is another reason to hang onto shorts.  Another factor of the large open interest would be trying to capture the large carries.  The only way to truly capture the carry is to roll current HTA's or physically sell the deferred months.  There is a lot of recommendations to get that done at our current carries.  Bean spreads are also trading massive carries, so the same story goes there.  Bean bass continues to be at harvest lows and seem to be in a funk.  It might take a month or two to see a bounce back.  Corn harvest is just beginning, but so far corn movement remains slow.   Basis will hang tight until selling picks up or space fills up; whichever comes first.  Should improve 1st of the year.

Harvest progress was out last night and corn was put at 38% harvested, which was lower than anticipated. 59% is the average for this time period, so we are way behind.  Minnesota itself was only 14% harvested.  Beans harvest made a big leap up to 70% harvested vs last week at 49% and an average of 73%.  Yields continue to be better than expected for corn, so an increase to the USDA yield in November looks to possibly be in the cards.  There seems to be more talk that China will need additional corn, but we are yet to see an uptick in business.  There is hope that China will be adding an E-10 ethanol blend and will increase their corn use, which in turn will lower their stocks.  Some have mentioned China could need imports of 5.0 mmt this year whereas last year they imported 2.7 mmt.  It will be interesting to see how that plays out.  For the most part farmer selling was very quiet today compared to yesterday.  Weather looks to remain open for harvest in much of belt for the next 2 weeks with temps will be on the cool side.

Corn got within a half cent of its lows today at 3.43 Dec futures before mustering a nice little rally finishing up 7 cents on the day. This was a very solid key reversal once again as it seems as though funds want to buy that type of level for now.  Beans seemed like they wanted to trade lower today, but the corn and wheat buying pulled them slightly higher as well.  Export inspections were out this morning and listed beans at 65 mil bushel vs last year at 94 mil.  Year to date bean exports are at 266 vs last year at 288.  Corn exports were a small 13 mil bushels vs last year at 35 mil.  Year to date corn exports are at 154 vs last year at 307.  Harvest progress will be out tonight.  Corn is estimated at 44% and beans are estimated at 64% complete. 

There was more business announced this morning. 198k tonnes of beans to China (routine), 120k tonnes of corn to Spain (weird),  and another 125k tonnes of corn to Uknown.  Beans started the day higher and had a reversal as harvest pressure continues.   Weather looks to get wet over the weekend over much of the belt.  More rain in the east than in the west.  They can have it!  Corn yields continue to support the USDA number at 171.8 bpa.  Already hearing yields bigger than last year in places, which could mean the USDA is still too low.   The MN corn yield is going to be impressive to say the least.  Even some of the northern MN yields are off the chart from early reports.  Now all we need is the export business to improve to find a home for a massive amount of bushels.  Basis so far is hanging tight on corn as farmer selling has been non-existent.  Basis on beans remains very poor and weakening as the farmer is selling beans off the combine for some cash roll.  For the week corn was down 8 and only 2 cents from the Dec futures low of 3.42.  Beans were down 22 for the week after last week’s late rally.

The USDA announced a couple more corn sales this morning. The first one was 115,000 tonnes to Mexico and the other was 146,000 tonnes to Unknown.  The weekly harvest progress report had corn at 28% complete compared to 22% last week.  Bean progress was at 49% vs last week at 36%.  We are definitely behind, but the market remains ok with it at the moment.  Everyone knows this crop can come out very quickly with the equipment now days and for now the forecast looks good.  Last week's 35 cent beans rally is not down to 19 cents.  I think we have a chance to trade at higher some point, but harvest pressure is putting a hurt on the soybeans. 

After a 35 cents rally over the last two days, beans lose nearly a dime. Once things dry out from weekend rains the 10 day forecast looks great to finish up bean harvest.  Export inspections were solid for beans this week, but low for corn.  The USDA had a bean sale announced to Unknown this morning of 224,300 tonnes.  Brazil weather looks to be turning wetter later this month in the dry areas.  That could have been part of the lower move today as well.  The September NOPA crush came in at 136.4 million bushels vs an average estimate of 138.3 million, also slightly negative.  Corn didn't do much at all today trading a 3 cent range.  Harvest progress will be out tonight.  Estimates have corn harvest at 30% and bean harvest at 49% complete.

Today was a very solid day of follow thru from the report. Export sales were great for both corn and beans this morning, which added some more support.  To see beans settle above yesterday's high is a great sign.  Today's bean market is the highest we have been since August 1st.  This is a great selling opportunity on beans if you are undersold going into harvest.  If you have space at home in beans don't be afraid to start looking at our bids for the summer months.  Today at the close you can sell June/July beans for 9.45 cash.  Those are some crazy cash carries if you have room at home to take advantage of those.  Reminder that you cannot forward contract price later bushels.  Basis continues to break on this rally, so the demand is still telling us this rally is not warranted.  The close today as I mentioned was very good, so it will ultimately be up to the funds whether they want to continue to buy.  Next week should be an interesting one.  Don't fall asleep on this rally.  This is a 35 cent move in two days in soybeans.  Corn may not seem like it is up much either, but we are now dime off of yesterday's lows that happened ahead of the report.

Report day has come and gone with some fireworks in the grain markets. These markets have had everyone lulled to sleep for the past few weeks with such little activity, but today that changed in an instant.  The surprise came in the bean market as the USDA dropped yield slightly to 49.5 bpa.  As I mentioned before everyone was leaning very heavily towards an increase to our yield, which was why we seen such a big reaction to a relatively small change in the yield.  Carryout was pegged at 430 million vs an average guess of 447 million.  That is still a very comfortable amount.  The fact that the USDA also increased planted bean acreage, which left production unchanged from the sept report at 4.431 billion bushels, leaves me a little skeptical that we can hold this rally.  There are "experts" thinking we have a chance at 10.15 Nov futures off this news, but it better happen quick while the news is hot off the press and the money wants to buy.  These same “experts” feel the world bean supply will continue to shrink, but if that’s the case we better see exports pick up.  The USDA jumped the corn yield to 171.8 bpa vs their Sept guess of 169.9 bpa.  That jumped the corn production to 14.280 billion bushels.  Carryout on corn was pegged at 2.340 billion.  That is a monster carryout to work though and not friendly corn at all.  We did manage a very good reversal on the charts though.  Before the report; corn put in a new low futures level at 3.42 1/2.  That reversal higher should be friendly on the charts.

Report day is tomorrow as we look to get another update from the USDA on yields. Like I mentioned yesterday, most traders believe that yield is going to work higher.  This morning we had a few announced sales, but we continue to remain behind pace.  Mexico booked 150k tons of corn and 104k tons of winter wheat.  China booked 264k tons of soybeans and we also had another 132k ton of soybeans to unknown.  Corn harvest progress last night was pegged at 22% vs last week at 17% and an average of 37%.  Bean harvest progress was at 36% vs last week at 22% and an average of 43%.  We are behind pace, but the futures don’t seem worried at the moment.  Crop ratings improved yesterday as well, which could be to blame for today's weaker markets.  South American weather remains a watch, but it is still very early to get any type of market reaction. 

Beans initially traded up 5-9 cents this morning on good export inspections, but harvest pressure once again leads the way. From what I have seen yields remain better than expected.  I am hearing of a lot of beans are getting sold off the combine, which is where the pressure is coming from on the futures.  Export inspections were out this morning (delayed from yesterday) and they were solid for soybeans, but corn and wheat didn't meet expectations.  Harvest progress will be out tonight at 3:00.  A couple private experts are expecting a yield increase on Thursday.  Corn yield could be seen above 171.0 bpa vs last month at 169.9.  Beans should also have a slight increase around 50.5 bpa.  If that type of yield shows up, I would expect corn to test the lows at 3.44 futures.  Beans have been very resilient to trade below 9.50 Nov futures.  We still have another day and a half to wait and watch this market continue to mark time.

Hurry up and wait for the USDA report on Thursday at 11:00 am. The export inspections, crop ratings, and harvest progress are all delayed until tomorrow as today is Columbus Day and the Government is home sitting on the couch.  There remains talk about harvest delays, but the futures don't seem to care as of yet.  Beans were higher much of the morning, but couldn't manage to hold any gains.  The Chinese are back off of their holiday, so hopefully we can get some business going.  News is very quiet at the moment.

There was very little action in today's markets and new news was very scarce. More rain for the western belt over the weekend and then it finally looks like we might get a window. Eastern Nebraska, Iowa, S MN, and Wisconsin looks to be in for the heaviest amounts of rain.  The after math of Hurricane Nate will be the next watch as that moisture looks to move up into the eastern Corn Belt.  That could cause significant issues depending on the path and the amount of rainfall it brings to the eastern Corn Belt.  Northern Brazil remains dry and Argentina remains too wet.  Keep an eye on that as well as they are now planting.  Beans should be the leader if we decided to rally this month.  9.95 Nov futures would be very stiff resistance to try and achieve.  That is a mere 23 cents away.  Have a good weekend.  Also a reminder that the next report is Thursday next week, which will have an updated yield guess from the USDA.

Corn and bean prices traded higher most of the day as a Drier N Brazil forecast seems to help once again. Informa came out today with their projected yields at 170.5 bpa on corn and 50.0 bpa on beans.  Not much of a surprise there up slightly from the USDA's last projections.  There is some more talk of additional China soybean demand that would be more than welcome.   It feels to me like we are once again stuck in these price ranges and cannot get out.  Weekly export sales for beans were at 1.0 mmt, which put commitments at 23.3 mmt vs last year at 28.3 mmt.  Corn weekly exports were pretty good at 814 mt.  A total commitment on corn is now at 12.2 mmt vs last year at 20.6 mmt.  That is way behind pace and basis levels continue to prove that.  There is finally starting to be some talk of delayed harvest, which could support prices here as well.  That is going to be real concern in our neck of the woods along with many others.  Hearing lots of reports of corn still well over 30% percent moisture out here, so we are going to need good November weather to get this crop in the bin.  Time will tell.

Overnight markets continued the lower trend and that continued throughout the day. Beans traded higher for a bit, but couldn't hold in there.  Harvest progress last night was listed at 17% for corn.  That is slightly behind the 26% average for this time.  Bean progress was estimated at 22%, which is also behind the 26% average.  There has been an abundance of rain in parts of the Midwest, which will slow harvest.  The east however has been chugging along at a good pace.  Informa will be out on Thursday, with their guess at what the USDA is going to say for yields on the October 12th report.  That will be the next news to get the market moving.  For now we are stuck at these levels.  Concern remains high for both the corn and bean export business and weak basis levels continue to tell that story.  Some are predicting that basis will get much worse during harvest, but I keep thinking to myself that the price is low enough.  I guess the futures and the basis don’t care what we think.  Cheap grain usually means more business, but that still hasn't showed up at these levels.  South America remains the export market for now.

The rally off the USDA stocks report on Friday didn't last long and we closed lower today than we started on Friday. Harvest pressure could be partially to blame, but export business remains an issue.  Even though the stocks were lower on the report the carryouts remain comfortable.  Export business and weak basis values remain the biggest factor on the markets.  Export inspections were out this morning and beans were at 32 mil bushels vs 41 mil last year.  Season to date bean exports are at 146 vs 125 last year.  The USDA goal for the year remains 2,250 vs 2,170 last year.  Corn inspections were at 31 mil vs 58 mil last year.  Season to date exports are near 115 vs 227 last year.  USDA goal remains 1,850 vs 2,295 last year.  Some feel that exports could be closer to 1,650.  We did have a large sale of 597,464 tons of corn announced to Mexico this morning, but that remains routine business.  This week looks very wet in the western belt, which will delay harvest, but things have been going strong in the east.  Yields remain better than expected for the most part.  Harvest progress will be out tonight.  Let’s hope for some turn around Tuesday action tomorrow.

The USDA report was out at 11:00 and they actually had a couple of surprises. It was friendly for corn and beans, but not so friendly for wheat.  They guessed the Sept 1 soybean stocks at 301 million bushels vs the average guess of 338 million.  That was below the low end of the range of guesses.  Corn was also below the range of guesses at 2.295 billion vs an average guess of 2.353 billion.  When the report came out we were trading slightly lower, but then corn traded as much as a nickel higher and beans traded up 17 at one point.  Corn finished up 3 and beans finished up 9 on the day.  Wheat in Minneapolis was down 21 cents today as stocks were pegged at 2.253 billion vs an average guess of 2.205 billion.  For the week corn was up 2 and beans were down 16.  Harvest pressure should continue next week, so it will be interesting to see if we can sustain this rally. 

USDA report tomorrow at 11:00 am. We had some more sales announced this morning.  234 tmt of corn sold to Unknown and 132 tmt of beans sold to Unknown.  Weekly export sales of corn were at 12.6 mil bushels, which is way below what is needed.  Weekly export sales on soybeans were excellent at 2.982 mmt.  If you have HTA's and plan to roll them forward, be paying attention to the spreads.  They are looking attractive.  If you have questions on that please give me a call.  Yields continue to come in better than expected.  Tomorrows report will dictate the direction until the report on Oct 12th.

Wheat short covering seemed to pull corn higher today. Beans also had a nice recovery today after trading lower most of the morning.  Friday's report will be the key.  We did have another sale announced this morning of 132,000 tonnes of Soybeans to China this morning.  The daily announcements since 9/5/17 have totaled almost 3.4 million tonnes of soybeans to China, Mexico, and Unknown.   That’s a lot of beans, but we are still behind.  Soybean oil broke yesterday and today on news that the EPA was requesting comments on reductions for the advanced biofuel volume requirements for 2018 and 2019.  This put pressure on the bean market yesterday and this morning.  It was good to see them turn around today, as some experts are predicting lower soybean stocks on Friday.  I would guess we trade sideways ahead of the report the next couple days. 

Corn harvest was pegged at 11 percent last night vs an average of 17. Corn ratings were left unchanged at 61 percent good/excellent vs 74 percent last year.  If you want to try and compare our current ratings from last year it would suggest a yield of 169.9 bpa, which is very close to the current USDA guess.  Bean harvest was estimated at 10 percent complete vs an average of 12.  Crop ratings were up slightly last night to 60 percent good/excellent vs 73 last year.  That same comparison would lead to a yield of 49.5.  The farmer seems much more willing to sell 8.70 beans rather than 2.70 corn.  Beans basis continues to weaken as harvest picks up.  Corn basis continues to stay very weak as well as new business is not taking place.  The USDA stocks report is Friday, which is not expected to be a big mover.  There can always be surprises though. 

Beans lost what they gained on Friday down 13 cents. This will be a big week for harvest pressure in the east and the south.  The western corn belt is a ways off after the soaker rains over the weekend and also more in the forecast.  Yields remain better than advertised thus far.  Bean basis continues its downward slide as harvest is underway.  The potential for Brazil rains improved over the weekend, which also added to the selling pressure today.  Bean export inspections were solid today at 38 mil bu vs last year at 14 mil.  Corn export inspections were way behind last year at 29 mil vs 52 last year.  That is not much of a surprise as corn sales have been slow.  Crop ratings will be out this afternoon yet I am not sure they matter much at this point.  Harvest pace might be the bigger factor.  The stocks report will be on Friday.  I am not expecting a huge reaction to sway the markets, but the risk is we have more stocks than thought.  The common theme is to carry corn into harvest for both the commercial and the producer this year. 

Beans rallied nicely into the close, which surprised me as harvest pressure should be picking up in places. The 3 storylines remain positive bean exports, weather in SA could be causing planting delays (too dry in Brazil and too wet in Argentina), along with a wide a variety of yields to start out US harvest.  Most yields I am seeing remain better than expected, but still less than last year.  Like I mentioned yesterday, we will not have a USDA update in yields until October 12th.  Farmer movement picked up today as we approach 9.00 cash beans.  Resistance should be around 9.90 Nov futures.  Corn seemed to just be along for the ride again today.  For the week corn was about unchanged and beans were up 16 cents.  Basis remains squishy at best as the processor feels comfortable as a few new crop beans are already being delivered.  Rail bids remain very soft as well.  Let’s see what next week brings as harvest pressure should pick up steam.  Have a good weekend!

Beans battled back nicely today as exports sales this morning were huge. Export sales were listed at nearly 2.3 mmt, which was higher than expected.  China remains hungry for beans as of late as there was another sales announced to them this morning.  It is our harvest time and this remains normal routine business, but it is still encouraging to see these daily.  Corn export sales were pegged at 11.0 mmt, which was lower than expected.  Corn sales remain sluggish and that will likely continue for a while as South America remains the cheapest source by far.  Fresh news remains quiet.  Basis continues to pucker as bean harvest has begun in places and old crop corn is almost overwhelming.  Next Friday the 29th is the USDA stocks report, which could potentially be the next market mover.  We will not see any changes to USDA yields until the report on October 12th.  I would expect a flat trade until we get to those reports. 

Beans traded higher on more USDA export sales announced this morning. They announced a massive sale of 1.092 mmt of 17/18 beans (960k to Unknown and 132k to China).  Yesterday they added rain to the Brazil forecast, but today that seems less certain, which added some support to beans.  Corn and wheat seem to just be following along.  Early yields in corn remain better than expected.  Early yields on beans remain close to the USDA guesses on yields.

The grain markets were lower today as the Brazil forecast looks wetter in both the near term and long term forecast. Last week there were ideas that Brazil planting would be delayed due to dryness.  Now they have rain forecasted for next week along with more in October.  Another factor is that early yields continue to be better than expected in Illinois and Iowa, although not as good as a year ago.  We have continued to see more export sales announced daily, but we are still way behind and that is starting to get noticed in the futures market.  Corn is in a much worse situation than soybeans as the US is not very competitive with South America until the New Year.  At these basis and futures values the farmer is going to pack the bins tight and the elevators are going to hold as much as they can as well.  That sounds great and all, but what happens next year when we need to start working through all this grain from both the elevator and the farmer?  We are going to have a monster amount of grain to work through, which usually is not a good thing for basis and also makes it hard to get a substantial board rally.  We are truly feeling the effects of a very large carryout.

We have another USDA report in the books and they once again raised the yields. We are through the frost scare rally now, which wasn't much of a rally.  There just isn't anything in store to hurt the crop from here.  The only thing we have left that could drop the yield is the yield itself.  Is the crop there or isn’t it?  Time will tell.  The USDA bumped the corn yield to 169.9 bpa from 169.5 back in August.  They pegged the 2017/18 corn carryout at 2.335 billion.  That’s a lot of corn to work through.  The world corn carryout for 2017/18 was pegged at 202.5 million tonnes vs 200.87 in August.  The USDA also jumped the bean yield up to 49.9 bpa vs 49.4 in August.  The 2017/18 bean carryout was pegged at 475, which was unchanged from August.  The world bean carryout was just a tick lower from their August number at 97.5 million tonnes.  Expectations were for the yields to drop slightly as we thought the August numbers were too high, but once again they bumped them higher.  We are now stuck treading water until we get this crop in the bin and find out the true yields.

The corn market had a rough day today after a 4% rally as of late. We still remain 11 cents off the lows from last week.  Traders continue to await the USDA report next Tuesday, Sept 12th at 11:00 AM.  Will the USDA be willing to drop the yields from their August estimate?  At this point I would doubt it, but the weather has been on the cool side and there are definitely some white mold issues in areas.  That could make a difference in the final yields.  The forecast remains above normal temps in the 6-15 day in the western corn belt, so that should help with growing degree days.  This crop is still behind and needs time to finish.  Basis seems to be puckering as of late, especially soybeans.  It seems as though the crushers will have enough beans to make it to new crop.  The scheduled plant shutdowns as of late take some pressure off.  There also is a large amount of old crop corn that wants to move before harvest.  The big report will be on Sept 29th as the USDA issues their stocks report. 

Cool temperatures prevail over the next few days, but it looks like we are going to avoid any frost talks. This crop needs some heat to finish it off and the 6-15 day forecast look to have above normal temps in store.  I was surprised to see beans up nearly 20 cents today with the current forecast.  Our next USDA report is next Tuesday, September 12th.  Export inspections were good this week, but nothing overwhelming.  There was more export sales announced this morning, which are always welcome.  Beans seem to be a hot export commodity as of late.  US PNW beans into China are currently 8-10 per ton cheaper than the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina.  Corn is exactly the opposite, which is bad news for the time being.  Crop ratings will be out tonight at 3:00.  Corn and beans are expected to be unchanged to down 1%.  Nothing too exciting!

Today was very quiet ahead of the holiday weekend. Not much is happening with light volume trade and very little news.  Beans traded higher most of the day and finished up 12 cents on the week.  Corn tried to trade higher this morning, but failed to hold the gains down 2 on the day and down 5 on the week.  Weather will be the key next week during the full moon.  Will we see any areas of frost?  Informa came out with their updated yield estimate.  Corn yield was put at 169.2 bpa vs 165.9 bpa last month, but just slightly under the USDA August estimate of 169.5 bpa.  They estimated soybean yield at 49.4 vs 47.3 last month.  USDA had the same number of 49.4 bpa in August.  The grain markets are closed on Monday, but open up at 7:00 pm Monday night. 

December corn set a new contract low this morning at 3.44 1/4, but once the market opened at 8:30 am we did nothing but work higher. Export sales were solid for both corn and beans this morning, which may have added support.  Price Later and Basis Contract deadlines have passed and selling pressure should slow considerably.  The US Dollar was lower once again today and the Brazilian Real was higher, which makes the US more competitive.  Month end positioning might have been the biggest factor as the funds were short and took gains at the end of the month.  This reversal should have weeded out the weak shorts already as we took out some key resistance levels very quickly.  3.65 - 3.70 Dec Futures will be the next target area if we can sustain this move.  Tomorrow will be important as we start a new month to see if the buying continues.  It was surprising to see wheat down 15 cents today, when corn was up 12. 

Corn made another new low for the move today at 3.47 Dec futures. We tried to bounce back a few cents, but only closed a penny off the lows.  There is still a lot of corn to price on DP and Basis contracts tomorrow, so I think it will tough for any type of recovery tomorrow.  Month end short covering would be about the only reason for a bounce.  Crop ratings last night were unchanged on corn at 62% g/e and beans improved 1% to 61% g/e.  We did have some corn sales to Mexico and beans to China announced this morning, which has been a common theme lately.  This is routine business however.  The US dollar has been getting beat up as of late and should help exports, but we need to see some more buying if we want to get this bleeding to stop.  As I mentioned before commercial selling should slow up once August is over, but it is still going to be hard to sustain a rally ahead of harvest unless a frost scare occurs.  There still seems to be a large amount of old crop corn that wants to move before harvest and the futures market knows that.  For those of you with Sept basis contracts, tomorrow is the deadline. 

The markets continued their downward spiral today as we make new lows in corn market as we approach 3.50 Dec futures. Selling pressure continues as price later deadlines hit the grain sectors and also basis fixed contract deadlines are also this week.  There is a large of amount of bushels that need to be addressed on those programs throughout the country, which is causing a massive amount of selling pressure on this market.  Are we getting cheap enough?  I think so, but the problem remains that there is still a large amount of old crop corn that would like to move before harvest to make space for the new crop.  We are definitely feeling the effects of a 2.4 billion bushel carryout.  Export inspections were very good today and we will need that to continue.  Selling pressure will continue through the balance of the month, but there could be some month end short covering by the funds to maybe offset it a little.  Crop conditions will be out tonight.  Corn is expected to improve 1% while beans are guessed to be unchanged.  Hopefully we see some turn around Tuesday action.

Final Farm Journal crop tour results:

Corn: 13.953 billion bu. production; Average yield of 167.1 bu. per acre

Soybeans: 4.331 billion bu.; Average yield of 48.5 bu. per acre

In August, the USDA was:

Corn 169.5 BPA, production 14.153 billion bushels

Beans 49.4 BPA, production 4.381 billion bushels

There is nothing in the crop tour that is going to make this market turn around. It looks as though the crop is there today, but it is not yet in the bin.  If we have an early frost threat that would be a major issue as this crop seems behind with a lot of variability.  Yesterday the crop tour pegged southern Minnesota yield at 191.1 bpa vs last year’s tour estimate of 182.3.  Some experts would argue the USDA could even raise their yield as the tour is typically smaller than the final USDA number by a wider margin.  

The farm journal tour came up with a corn yield of 180.7 bpa in Illinois vs last years tour estimate of 187.3 bpa. That compares with the USDA's current estimate of 188 bpa and last year final yield estimate of 197 bpa.  Pod counts for Illinois were at 1,230 vs 1,318 last year and a 3 year average of 1,269.  The tour also gave numbers for western Iowa.  They had corn at about 179 bpa.  They had pod counts from 1,158 to 1,226.  This was the supposedly problem area in Iowa.  The tour will have their final estimates for Iowa out tonight.  Export sales continue to pick up on soybeans as the exports sales were over expectations this morning.  We also continue to see multiple bean sales as the USDA announced more to China this morning.  With lower pod counts in general on the tour and good export sales, hopefully we get some life back in the bean market.  If that happens it might be enough pull the corn market higher as well.  One more reminder in case you missed it yesterday, the free price later corn needs to be priced by tomorrow.  If it is not priced by tomorrow's close it will be sold on Monday morning.

Corn made a new low today since last year. I have been preaching that corn needs to trade 3.58 Dec futures and hopefully bounce out of that level and trade higher.  Well…we traded it today but closed 2 cents lower than that.  The close is not good technically and may cause some more selling pressure the balance of the month.  The farm journal tour is not helping matters finding some very good yields.  Yesterday's results had Indiana at 171.23 bpa and Nebraska at 165.42 bpa.  Both slightly lower than the USDA projections, but not bad.  I am interested in the Iowa yields on the tour.  With as many people saying they were too dry, it will be interesting to see what they find.  The free price later deadline is fast approaching this Friday for those of you with bushels on that program.  They need to be priced by the close on Friday, or they will be priced on Monday morning.  Please be looking at those bushels and make arrangements prior to the close on Friday.  For those of you with basis contracts that deadline is next Wednesday, August 30th by the close. 

The farm journal tour continues today. Yesterday they came up with Ohio at 164.6 vs last year 148.9 bpa.  Compare this to USDA's current projection of 171 bpa vs last year’s final yield of 159 bpa.  Avg pod count was at 1,107 pods vs last year at 1,055.  The three year average was 1,174 pods.  In South Dakota (the eastern side) they pegged the corn yield at 147.7 bpa vs last year at 149.7.  Compare that to the current USDA estimate of 140 bpa vs last year’s final yield of 161 bpa.  Pod count was at 899.5 vs last year at 970.6.  The 3 year average is 1,027.  The one concern they did mention was the beans will need more time to mature.  They will need almost the entire month of September.  Hopefully there is no early frost issue or there could be major concern.  Crop conditions were out last night and corn was left unchanged 62% and beans improved 1% to 60% good/excellent.  Nebraska and Indiana are being surveyed today and from indications the USDA looks pretty close.  Pod counts are also higher than yesterday.  So far the markets have not had much reaction to the tour.  The bulls have little to go on at this point in the tour. 

The farm journal tour starts today, but it still almost too early to get a good feel for what the final yield will be. For the most this tour has under estimated the final USDA yield by 1-5 bushel on both corn and beans, so keep that in mind as well as we go forward.  One of the Ohio routes came up with a range of corn yields from 59 - 222.6 bpa, with an average yield of 148.35 bpa.  The route in SE South Dakota and NE Nebraska came up with an average corn yield of 149 bpa.  There was a very wide variety of ear pictures as well.  On the bean side of thing the pods counts seem lower than last year, but it might be early yet as well as all the pods are not finished setting.  We have the crop conditions update this afternoon.  Corn is projected to be unchanged at 62% good/excellent and beans are projected to be unchanged or a 1% improvement.  Export inspections were out today and corn was below the average guess at 27.2 million bushels.  We need to average 24.9 million the next 2 weeks to make it to the USDA's projections.  I think we will manage to do that.  Bean inspections were at 24.4 million bushel and the average guess was at 22 million. 

Export sales were very good for both corn and beans this week. We had some more sales announced this morning by the USDA.  Some of which were optional origin, but still a good sign.  The bean sales have been on fire lately, but we were behind pace as I mentioned before.  There have been a few old crop cancellations as well, so those will just carry over into new crop.  Corn still struggles to do much of anything as we trade a tight range and trend lower.  We are now 6 cents away from trading the Dec low of 3.58.  Maybe tomorrow is the day ahead of the pro farmer tour next week to spark some type of hope.  Beans basis has been popping for new crop, but now the BNSF freight is finding life as well to offset the difference.  Go figure, as everyone wants a piece of the pie.  Other news today was very light and I would the same tomorrow.  Next week’s crop tour will be the key to get out of this slump.

The grain markets continue to take the least path of resistance which is lower. We continue to inch closer to the 3.58 Dec futures low.  We got within a nickel of that today at one point.  Rain showers continue to move through the Corn Belt and provide finishing rains to this crop.  Now we just need some heat to finish it out and that is in the forecast for the next 2 weeks.  Ethanol production this week was at its 2nd highest level ever.  Ethanol stocks increased 500,000 gallons as well.  Cheap grain leads to bigger margins and the grind shows that result.  Bean premiums continue to creep higher for new crop basis as the farmer is not selling and China is in the buying mood.  Look for more choppy trade with a bias to the downside the balance of the week.   We will see if the crop tour can get us turned around next week.  One central IL county did a crop survey and took 62 corn samples.  They came up with a yield of 187 bpa vs last year at 209 bpa.  Another group did a similar survey in a different county and came up with 190 bpa vs last year at 224 bpa.  For reference the August USDA had IL corn yield at 188 vs 197 last year.  We will be hearing a lot more of these yields next week. 

Corn and beans both made new lows for the move today, which keeps the Dec corn low at 3.58 and Nov bean low at 9.07 the short term target. The crop ratings last night indicated a 2% improvement to the good/excellent ratings in corn, which now stands at 62%.  Bean ratings had a 1% decline and they currently stand at 59% good/excellent.  With all the rain so far in August that surprised me.  I mentioned yesterday on how the ratings don't seem to mean anything after the Aug 10^th report when we try to compare the yields the USDA gave us vs the condition ratings.  Let me give you a couple examples to why exactly I say that.  Let’s take a look at Indiana and compare the ratings vs the USDA yield on both corn and beans.  The corn g/e ratings in the Aug 2016 USDA report were 73 last year vs 52 this year.  That is a 21% drop in ratings.  Last year the USDA had Indiana corn yield at 173 bpa and this year that number is unchanged at 173 bpa.  How do we have 21% drop in ratings with no change in the yield.  The same story goes in the beans.  Ratings last year in the Aug 2016 USDA report were 74% g/e vs this year at 54%.  Yield last year was 57.5 bpa vs this year at 55 bpa.  So we have a 20% drop in ratings, but only a 2.5 bpa drop in yield.  If someone could explain this, that would be great.  I understand the trend yield moves higher with better genetics, but not to this extent.  Someone is lying to us, so it will be interesting to see what the boots on the ground say during the crop tour next week.  The USDA announced a couple more bean sales for new crop this morning as it looks like China is back.  It is good to finally see some sales get put on the books again.

The markets gapped lower last night on the open on weekend rains. There is also more in the forecast for later in the week.  Corn traded down a nickel and beans traded down 15 at one point today.  We did manage a very good close today as corn finished up 2 cents and beans battled back to close higher than they initially open last night.  That is a good sign for the rest of the week.  Maybe we have a shot at turn around Tuesday tomorrow the way the close looked.  Export inspections this morning were as expected for corn and near the top end of the guess on beans.  Crop ratings will be out tonight at 3:00 and expectations are unchanged to down 1% on both corn and beans.  I am not sure how much the crop ratings mean anymore after last week’s report, but we may trade them regardless.  Hearing more rumblings of beans to China, which should be a common theme as they were behind schedule on bookings.  For those of you with the price later deadline fast approaching we need to come up with a plan.  Same goes for the basis fixed contracts; we don't want to have to roll those contracts into a 14 cents carry.

Corn yield at 169.5 bpa vs 170.7 bpa in July.  (Avg guess was 166.2 bpa)

Corn US Carryout for 17/18 at 2.370 billon bushel vs 2.325 in July.  (Avg guess was 2.003 billion)

Bean yield at 49.4 bps vs 48.0 bpa in July.  (Avg guess was 47.5 bpa)

Bean US Carryout for 17/18 at 475 million vs 460 in July.  (Avg guess was 424 million)

I am not sure how they did it, but the USDA managed to put both the corn and the bean yields above even the top end of the range of estimates. Either the USDA was wrong last year and under estimated the yield and is now making up for it or the genetics are just that much better!  Apparently the 60% good/excellent rating they release every week means nothing.  Even if we don't believe the information they released, we don't have any choice but to trade it for a while.  The next thing that could have an impact is the crop tour that starts Aug 21st.  Otherwise we wait for yields during harvest to see where they are at.  Solid support in corn is down at 3.58 Dec futures. I don’t think we get there, but one never knows for sure.  Bean support is around 9.35 Nov futures and if that fails the lows from June are down near 9.11 Nov futures.  

I know I sound like a broken record, but nothing changed today. We continue to wait for the USDA report on Thursday.  Corn ratings dropped 1% last night to 60% good/excellent yet the market didn't seem to care once again.  Bean ratings improved 1% to 60% good/excellent and we traded higher today on a dry and cool forecast.  We will continue to chop around these levels until Thursday and then the USDA will decide what direction we go.  If you would like some orders working in case we get a bounce on Thursdays, give me a call. 

Markets traded higher today as there seems to be less sellers at these levels. We continue to wait for the USDA report on Thursday to help set a direction for the balance of the month.  The average guesses for the yields on the report came in at 166.2 bpa for corn and 47.5 bpa on soybeans.  That seems pretty close to where I think they will be at.  I still don't see them dropping the corn yields to match some of the private estimates at 162-163 bpa.   We did have a sales announced this morning for old crop beans to Unknown, which may have caused the reaction to trade higher today.  Export inspections were also very solid for beans last week.  I would expect the markets to chop sideways from here until Thursday's report. 

There is nothing much new today as we head into another weekend. There are still no threats in the forecast at this point.  Sunday nights forecast will be important once again, but it feels like it should be less so than normal as a majority of corn-belt saw rain this week.  The cool temperatures are also allowing the moisture to stick around.  Volume was very light today in the markets as well.  Spreads continue to widen out as there is little need for old crop grains today.  As I mentioned yesterday it feels like we are going to be stuck in a small range until Thursday's USDA report at 11:00 AM. 

Have a good weekend!

Overnight rains had the markets on their heels again today. Rainfalls were very general in the Dakotas, MN, and IA.  Thoughts are it will help the beans more than the corn at this point.  Informa was out today with the yields they are guessing the USDA will use on the Aug 10th report.  They are indicating corn at 165.9 bpa and beans at 47.3 bpa.  Corn is higher than a lot of the private estimates (162-163), but the USDA will likely be in that area.  Beans are right in line with most private estimates.  Part of me feels like the USDA was a little light on last year’s yields and they are lagging behind now to make up the difference.  We are seeing and feeling the effects of a very large US carryout.  If you disagree, just take a peek at basis levels and also the large spreads indicating nobody wants the corn or beans today.  South America's big crop was a dagger to our exports, which will continue that way into new crop.  The Aug 10^th report is literally our last shot for a rally until harvest is done and final yields are realized, unless we talk early frost.

Corn ratings were down 1% good/excellent last night at 61%. Bean ratings were up 2% good/excellent at 59%.  Weather also looks cool and wet into the first half of August, which should help the bean crops tremendously.  The system at the end of this week looks very general and it shows a big area of coverage.  We did have another corn sale announced to Columbia this morning as they add to yesterday's purchase.  Beans have another dime lower to go in order to fill the gap like I have mentioned before.  If we decide to test the old lows we are still 55 cents away.  Corn is only 2 cents away from its June 23rd low.  If we break through that level of support the next stop is at 3.58 Dec futures, which was the low last August.  With the crop ratings we are illustrating today, I don't think we see that level.  Demand remains very poor for old and new corn at this time as South America corn is cheap.  Beans are competitive today for exports.

The markets traded slightly higher once again to heading into another weekend forecast that will be important. We are not reaching the point where the forecast reaches out into the flowering and pod setting time frame.  The next 2 weeks look dry with the best shot of rain in corn belt coming in towards the end of next week.  The temps are near normal for now though, so we are looking to avoid the extreme heat.  The big news of the day was when news broke that a court overturned the EPA's 2015 decision to lower the US biofuels mandates because the US had hit the "blend wall".  The court acknowledged the EPA's authorization to cut the mandate due to supply-side factors (such as short crop, lack of crush capacity, etc), but the agency cannot consider demand side constraints.  This news rallied the bean oil market today, which spilled over into the soybeans.  The US dollar continues to get smoked, down over 500 ticks today.  That should be helping to get us more competitive on the exports.  Other news today was very quiet. 

The markets today started out lower on the radar dropping some rain in Iowa. The reports I heard for totals were .5 inches or less. That will help, but not cure the problem if the weather remains dry for the next 10 days like forecasted.  It was good to see the markets turn higher today, but it is not enough to gain much interest from the farmer.  The afternoon run on the weather was slightly warmer, but also drier.  There is no extreme heat in the forecast, which is still deemed as a relief.  Corn feels like we got cheap enough for the time being.  Beans I think still have more downside potential as August weather remains very important and will be the driving factor.  Don't forget that beans are still just shy of a dollar higher than we were in end of June.  We don't want to miss the boat here again as there is still a gap to fill at 9.50 futures.  It is likely we will fill that gap at some point before we have a chance to break out to the upside.  Like I mentioned already, August weather will be the driver.  The next report is on Aug 10th, which we should see some lower yield revisions.  Time will tell.

Yesterday the USDA dropped corn ratings by 2%, which are now at 62% good/excellent. They dropped the bean ratings by 4%, which are now at 57% good/excellent.  Overnight calls were 5-7 higher corn and 10-15 higher beans.  When the markets opened at 7:00 pm we did indeed gap higher.  Corn traded up 6 and beans traded up 25 cents momentarily, before they started to work their way lower the balance of the night.  When the night session closed corn was down 3 and beans were up 6.  The A.M. weather run was then wetter for both the 6-10 day and 11-15 day.  That is all it took to break this market lower.  It really doesn’t seem warranted to me, but the funds are in control.  Speaking of the funds….In June they had massive short positions and took huge losses as they bailed out and became long at the highs in July.  Now they are taking massive losses on those long positions as well as they work on becoming short once again.  It feels like there is someone that has more money than the funds out here and they are just playing games with them.   It is hard to peg where the corn market is trading the yield, but I would guess around 165-166 bpa.  I am starting to see a lot of guesses below that now.  RJO is using 162.2.   Cordonieer is using 163.5 bpa.  There are a lot of twitter pictures going around showing pollination issues. 

There is nothing new to trade besides the weather once again. For the week corn was up 3 and beans were up 20.  The pull back in the markets today were attributed to the rainfall that fell in southern MN and Iowa today.  The current NOAA forecast is also showing moderate temps for the upcoming week, which should not harm the crop.  As always, everything can change and the Sunday night forecast will be a big one to start next weeks direction in the markets.  It feels as though Dec corn is stuck in the range of 3.85 - 4.05 futures.  It will take a sell off to 3.74 Dec futures to break the bullish pattern.  The funds are covered and now long, so they will need to decide it they add more long positions or bail.  Have a good weekend and lets see what happens next week.

Weather….Weather….Weather.   At the moment there is nothing else to trade except for the many different forecasts.  The US model did move most of the rain north of I-80 now, so they are slightly closer to agreeing.  Corn traded up 11 at one point again today and beans traded up 15.  Both settled back slightly lower, but managed to hold some of the gains.  This afternoon's European model will be important once again. CWG came out today with their projection for the national corn yield and they came in at 167.1 bpa.  The USDA used 170.1 bpa.  CWG typically is very close to the final USDA number if that is any indication.  Corn remained slow to move today.  Dec futures continue to flirt with 4.00 futures and it feels like we becoming range bounce once again.  It is going to take more weather issues to break out of these levels.

The European weather model yesterday afternoon looked hot and dry for much of the belt for the 6-15 day. That news coupled with the lower crop ratings yesterday was enough to get the market excited last night and this morning.  Corn traded up 12-13 cents and beans traded up 20 at the highs today.  At 11:30 the GFS model came out and disagreed with the European model and added moisture into IA, IL, and IN.  The markets then sold back off finishing just slightly higher.  The Canadian model also came in around noon and disagreed with the GFS model.  It is hard enough to trade a weather market without all the models telling us a different story.   It will be interesting to see what the European model tells us this afternoon, because they have been the more accurate of the two.  Corn and bean movement was very light this morning even with the market higher.  It is going to take a move near the old highs to get a big chunk of movement.  If we make a run to those levels again we should be getting sold out of old crop corn and beans and getting a good start on new crop.  Don’t forget about starting 2018 corn as well near 4.25 futures.  That could look good going forward.

The afternoon run on the weather looks slightly wetter, but the heat this week is still holding support in the market today. Crop ratings will be out tonight at 3:00, so that should tell us what direction we are going to start heading into tomorrow.  Basis is trying to improve slowly as movement is slow after last weeks beat down.  It is going to be tough to improve much.  Export inspections today were good for corn slightly better than the guesses.  Most feel that is something we should not get used to going forward.  Bean inspections were poor at the low end of expectations.  NOPA bean crush for June was also sharply lower than expected.  The stars are having a tough time lining up for the bulls so far this week. 

Corn ratings were down 1% at 64 % good/excellent. Beans ratings were also down 1% at 61 % good/excellent.

Not a good couple days in the grain markets. We had the USDA report yesterday, which was bearish.  Very bearish if you want to believe the USDA is right by not changing the yield at 170.7 bpa on corn and 48.0 bpa on beans.  Then to top it off we had a noon forecast yesterday, which cooled things off and added in moisture.  Today those models still agree on the change.  Export sales this morning were non-existent for corn and beans were on the low end of expectations.  The combination of these things caused the market to crash today.  Is it "over"?  I doubt it, but this sure is not helping.  The recent highs look safe, but we have some more time to trade weather in order to get through pollination.  Beans are still 3 weeks away from their most important weather, so seeing them tank 50 cents in 24 hours after a 1.30 rally is about as volatile as it gets.  There is a gap on the Nov beans back at 9.50 - 9.55 futures.  My guess is we fill that gap if the weather continues to improve.  Look for this type of wild trade to continue for the next few weeks.  Buckle in with every forecast.

Beans made a new high overnight at 10.47 Nov futures on the news of the lower crop ratings yesterday. Then it started to feel like a bit of turn around Tuesday syndrome.  Beans traded down 17 cents around 6 am all the way down to 10.22 Nov futures.  By 9:30 am we were back to unchanged and finished the day up 4 cents.  We have the USDA report tomorrow, so be paying attention at 11:00 am.  I would expect a bearish report on corn and a neutral/friendly report on beans.  The one thing we need to remember is once the report comes out it is old news and weather will play the trump card either way.   There are a lot of big numbers being thrown around right now for possible futures.  Once again be careful not to get caught up in those.  Scaling up sales is a great approach in a weather market to assure that we get something done to reward the market. 

Corn ratings were down 3% on corn at 65% good/excellent.   Beans ratings were down 2% at 64% good excellent.  Most expectations were 2-3% lower, so this might be figured into todays markets?  Either way it was not a bearish number, so we could continue the rally.  Funds have bailed out in a very large way over the last week.  Funds should be slightly "LONG" corn after today and slightly short beans yet.  Basis on corn is very poor and getting worse.  The reality that the market is going to get flooded with old crop corn is playing out.  New crop basis is starting to feel the pressure as well.  The forecast remains hot and dry in the west, but the east still looks ok at the moment.  The ridge looks to be extending further east at the moment.  I would for things to start higher once again tonight.  There is a lot of grain moving including both old and new crop.  Have orders in as this market is going to stay wild for a bit. 

The forecast will be the key Sunday night once again to set our direction for next week. Corn made it to a new high by about a penny, but then broke back to near unchanged and finishing up a penny.  Beans made new highs today once again and are looking to test our old highs of 10.34 Nov futures.  We traded 10.34 Nov futures back in Nov, Jan, Feb, and March and each time we failed to go higher.  That is where I would have my orders working, or slightly under.  Yes the forecast is hot, but remember what happened June.  We had the same forecast for a couple weeks, but it never actually happened.  Beans rallied 61 cents this week, plus we had the 27 cent move higher off the report last Friday.  We need to take advantage of this rally.  If the hot and dry forecast plays out we could go higher yet, but don't miss the boat.  I have heard the "experts" throwing out large projections, but we still need to have a lot fall in place to make that happen.  For those of you that want to know the level they threw out it was 4.75 Dec corn futures and 11.00 Nov beans futures.  One never knows for sure, but don't get caught up in those values and stop making sales.  Scale up sales instead.

Wheat once again was the big story as the money continues to flow in big amounts. Minneapolis wheat ended the day down 50 cents.  Is the wheat market over?  I doubt it, but it shows just how dangerous a market can be and no money is easy money.  Crop ratings were out last night and corn improved 1% to 68% good/excellent.  Most were expecting a slight decline.  Beans decreased 2% to 64% good/excellent.  Overnight trade was very weak with corn down a dime and beans down 6 at one point.  We traded those levels briefly this morning before bouncing back.  Beans made a new high for the move as the November futures broke 10.00, but just barely.  Informa was out today and they were 100 million more in corn production that the USDA.  They were pretty much line on soybean production.  These numbers were basically ignored in the market today.  Corn continues to fight to stay above the 4.00 Dec futures mark, but it did close there once again.  Can we break out of this range in the near future?

Crop ratings will be out tonight at 3:00, which should tell us what direction we are heading to start out tonight. The forecast continues to a show a ridge in the 11-15 day with above normal temps and below normal precip mainly in the west.  We are stuck in the middle of a weather market and that is going to continue.  Corn moved heavy on Monday, but not so much today.  Anywhere near Mondays highs will move another round of corn.  New crop beans were the big mover today as we made it back to 9.00 cash for the first time in a long time.  Last month we bottomed cash new crop out at 8.22 cash, so this rally is worth a sale.  Most experts didn't think we would see this level again any time soon, so don't miss out.  Cash basis remains flat for now on both corn and beans even with the nice rally.  Wheat was the exciting market today as Minneapolis traded a nice 95 cent range today.  Informa will be out tomorrow with their latest guess at our 2017 crop.  Our next USDA report is Wednesday July 12th, which will apply the June 30th info.

The forecast changed a touch over the weekend and now looks a bit hot and dry for the next two weeks. I would expect a very wild trade the balance of the week with the holiday mixed in on Tuesday.   Today corn traded up 15 cents at one point today and beans traded up 33.  The close was poor as corn was only trading up 4 at the noon and beans were up 22.  Just a reminder that the USDA was not friendly for corn on Friday, so make sure we don't miss the boat here.  We have been to these levels a few times now and none of which have lasted very long.  We have the funds nervous and bailing out, so what happens when they are done liquidating their position?  If the forecast remains hot and dry come Wednesday, I would expect to revisit the highs from today.  With the holiday crop ratings will not be released until Wednesday afternoon.  That will be very interesting as well.  Have a great 4th of July!!

Corn stocks were about 100 million over the estimate at 5.23 billion bushel. Corn planted acres were a shocker over the estimate by 1 million acres at 90.9 million.  Bean stocks were about 20 million shy of the average guess at 960 million.  Bean acres were under the average guess by about 250k acres.  Beans rallied off that info and finished the day up 30 cents for new crop.  Wheat was up another 32 cents today, which is just feeding these other markets as well.  Corn was up 9 cents prior to the report, traded back to unchanged for a moment, and then exploded higher into the close up 11 cents.  There were a couple weather models adding more heat for the 11-15 and also lowered the moisture.  Next week will be wild as trade will be limited due to the holiday.  Markets are open until noon on Monday and they are closed until 8:30 AM on Wednesday.  There is a lot of opportunity for weather to change before then so keep your eye on those forecasts.  Have a good 4th of July weekend!

Today was all about the stats Canada numbers on wheat. They issued a lower acres number than expected and when you couple that with the already bold wheat story in the Dakota's we have a bigger issue. They also showed that there was more Canola planted then Wheat for the first time ever.  Much like the US beans acres over corn for the first time ever (Possibly).  We will find that out for sure tomorrow morning.  Minneapolis wheat finished up 36 cents today, but traded as much as 56 higher.   Chicago wheat played follow the leader up 23 cents.  At some point you would think corn would need to follow suit, but the report that looms tomorrow morning will decide that.  This June report is typically one of the most volatile reports of the year.  Nearby weather looks perfect, but there is talk of heat in 11-15 day  forecast, which could be key for starting pollination in places.  July will be an important month for weather, so we just need to get through this report with nothing too bearish.  Beans on the other hand have a little more time to spare as August becomes crucial for pod development.  We found out first hand last year what a good rain in August can do for bean yield. 

Crop ratings were out last night and corn was unchanged at 67% and beans were down 1% at 66%. Most traders were expecting them to improve, which is why we starting higher overnight.  Corn closed unchanged however, after trading a nickel higher at one point.  Beans traded up 12 at point and only finished up 4.  These crop ratings are still not getting the funds nervous as of yet.  If we are still at these ratings come mid-July that could be a different story.  Weather remains good with no threats as of today.  We continue to wait for the report on Friday to see where the USDA puts their acreage numbers.   Dr. Cordonieer was out today and is guessing corn yield at 167 bpa vs the USDA at the trend yield of 171 bpa.  His guess at acres is at 89.2 mil.  Dr. Cordonieer's guess on bean yield remains unchanged at 48 bpa along with acres at 90 mil.  There is nothing friendly on the beans.  For those of you with basis contracts left, we only have 2 more days to get these cleaned up.  Please call me to do so.

The grain markets were very quiet today as we wait for the USDA report on Friday. We traded higher throughout the day after last weeks beat down, although it was a very small gain.  Export inspections were about as expected.  The weather forecast continues to look non-threatening.  It also shows a very general 1-2 inch rainfall throughout the corn belt by next weekend.  Things looks to warm up a bit in the 6-10 day forecast, which should also be favorable.  No big threatening heat in the forecast.  Crop conditions will be out at 3 PM today and are expected to improve.  Acre estimates for Friday's report have corn at 89 - 91 million acres and beans at 88.5 - 90.5 million.  This report is typically very volatile, but I have a hard time seeing that happen this year.  The only things that make me wonder is the 27 cent hit in corn and the 35 cent hit in beans last week.  Is that strictly weather trade, or is the money trying to tell us something?  We will find out soon enough.  There is very little grain moving at these levels.  When do the bin doors open?  There is a lot of old crop left to move. 

MN wheat was the only commodity that traded higher today as that story line continues. The rest of the grain complex was ugly once again as the funds continue to add to their short position.  Until the weather poses a threat, it is going to be very hard to see any kind of substantial bounce back.  One weather map today shows a substantial amount of moisture in ND for late next week.  That sure didn’t help the corn and bean markets, but it is too late to help their wheat crop.  Yesterday I mentioned corn was 2 cents away from breaking through its April low.  Well we did that today and we quickly tested the Dec low at 3.65 Sept futures.  If this level doesn’t hold we could lose another dime rather quickly to test the lows put in last October.  Beans managed to hold the psychological level of 9.00 July futures today, but it did get within a quarter of a cent.  There was not very much news today, so the beat didn’t change.  For the week corn was down 27 cents and beans were down 35 cents.  We went from testing our recent corn highs on June 9th to now making new lows on June 23.  Welcome to the wonderful US weather market.

Today was another very ugly day in the grain markets. Corn finished the day 2 cents away from its April low.  If we break below that it opens the door up for another 20 cents lower.  Beans plummeted to a new low today.  We have not seen this kind of futures level since March of 2016.  The next level of support psychologically would be 9.00, but realistically it would also be another 20 cents away at 8.85 July futures.  That type of number could be in play before the June 30th report.  The general theme has been bearish soybeans for quite some time now and when we missed the China business the last two days it turned into dooms day.  The weather forecast looks cool and wet with little threat to crop, which just added to the pressure today.  Funds are back to feeling very comfortable with their short positions obviously after things were not looking good just a couple weeks ago.  Basis contracts need to be rolled to the Sept before next Friday, so if you are one of those people please give me a call.  One thing to do before corn decides to rally back is look at locking in more basis.  I know it is not very attractive, but if we rally back and the market gets flooded with corn basis will be uglier than it is in August and Sept.  There is a lot of old crop corn to work through yet this summer.

Beans take another leg lower today as the strike in the Argentine port of Rosario has been suspended. That didn't last very long, yet it still had a 5 day impact on their exports as the ships are waiting to load.  The big news today is that China supposedly bought 14-16 bean cargoes out of Brazil yesterday, for a total of 500,000 metric tons.  Rumor also has it they bought another 8-10 cargoes from Brazil today again.  That could be a big hit to US bean prices by missing out on all of that business.  Once again it sounds like we missed the business by a heavy amount just like we did with the corn business a few weeks ago.  Corn and beans both traded higher right away this morning on the updated EU weather map.  They were suggesting the 2 week US forecast for the Midwest will be mostly dry and temps to be normal to below normal.  We are now only 7 trading days away from the big June 30th USDA report.  Talks of higher June 1st soybean stocks than last year, along with higher US 2017 soybean acres than the March estimate, and missing China business are weighing heavy on futures today.  Corn stocks we also know are large and even if the acres are light from March, the big carryout still could limit the upside.

Today was another ugly day in the grain markets unless of course you have some wheat to sell. Overnight markets had Minneapolis wheat up 17 cents and after falling back some during the day we closed right at that level.  Corn and beans couldn't find a buyer though as corn finished down 5 and beans finished down 10.  Even after last night ratings were disappointing we still couldn't bounce at all.  Corn and beans still feel very range bound.  Weather looks ok for the most part and we keep assuming rain will make grain.  There remains talk of the Tropical Storm moving into Louisiana and it will be important to see how that rainfall tracks north once it hits land.   Argentina remains in the middle of a strike at their main port of Rosaria, which represents 80% of their grain exports.  They are now in their 6th day and if it continues it could support soybeans.  It will be interesting to see how long that plays out. 

Export inspections were better than expected for corn and wheat. Bean inspections were basically as expected.  The corn futures crash today after last weeks small rally on better than expected rain fall in much of the corn belt.  There is also another 1-2 inch general rainfall forecasted this week throughout the corn belt.  Basis is starting to feel slightly better, but improvement has been slow.  The ethanol plants seem to have good coverage for the nearby, so they are just buying their time as when the board rallies corn moves every time.  Crop ratings will be out tonight and most thoughts remain that they will improve from last week.  Corn came out unchanged at 67% good/excellent, which should be a little positive for tonight.  Beans improved 1% to 67% good/excellent. 

Crop Conditions:

Corn 67 % Good Excellent vs last week at 68%

Beans 66% Good Excellent vs last year at 74%

Spring Wheat at 45% vs last week at 55%

Wheat was the big story in last night’s ratings. Corn and beans became a follower today up slightly.  Corn feels like we are going to be stuck in a range here for a while, only the range moved a dime higher after last week’s breakout higher.  It feels like 3.75 - 3.92 July futures could be the range.  The funds remain short and each weather forecast determines the direction.  The June 30th report will be a big hurdle to get through, which is the most important date on the calendar for now. 

The monthly June USDA report is in the books and very little happened to the futures. Overnight markets had corn down 5 cents at one point, but the morning session had corn already trading higher once again.  The USDA left the 17-18 corn carryout unchanged from May at 2.110 billion bushels.  The average guess was to be slightly lower.  The USDA raised the bean 17-18 carryout by 15 million bushel from May up to 495 million bushel.  Most traders were expecting a decrease due to higher exports, but they left the exports unchanged.  That is hard to believe when we are currently at 105% of their export estimate with another 2.5 months to go.   The most negative number posted today was the world bean carryout number.  They pegged it at 92.22 mmt vs an average guess of 89.44 mmt.  The big difference was the Brazil bean production up to 114 mmt vs the May at 111.6 mmt.  That is a massive adjustment when the trade was guessing 112.3 mmt.  We did have the USDA announce another bean sale this morning, which is encouraging.  Once the report was done we went back to trading weather.  The Sunday night forecast will be the key to start next week.

Overnight markets were higher once again and testing 3.90 July futures. We had resistance sitting at 3.92 and we traded right up near that this morning and failed.  Corn closed only a penny higher on the day.  Beans finished up 7 on day after trading double digits for a short period of time.  We are in a weather market and I would expect the volatility to continue for a while.   This is the chance we have been looking for to get some old crop corn moved.  It is not nearly as exciting of a rally since basis is weak, but its better than nothing.  Dec corn near 4.10 is also a good opportunity to get started.  If you are into the price builder compass contracts you can get Dec futures near 4.30.  Just remember there is some risk involved on these contracts.  If you have question on how the price builder contracts work give me a call.  They are a great way to market a small percentage of your crop and get a premium to todays market.  Wheat was the leader today up 20 cents at one point in Minneapolis.  We have the USDA report tomorrow at 11:00 AM, so look for some more wild trade.

Today was the day to break out….finally. Funds are starting to feel the heat along with the northern crop and liquidating some of their massive short position.  Now it feels like this basis market was just ahead of the game and seen this move coming.  Rail and Ethanol markets were weaker again today as corn futures were able to break the 3.85 July level.  3.92 will be the next goal.  Corn moved today in a big way along with more basis contracts as reality for the rest of the summer is setting in.  There are massive amounts of grain left to move and the only way that changes is if the crop in the field starts to look endangered.  The updated forecast looks HOT.  The eastern belt should be looking for some heat after being too wet, but everyone knows how fast we can dry out if it’s hot and windy.  We were too wet for a while and hoping the rain would stop, but here we are needing some rain.  I would expect a wild rest of the week.  Don't forget we have a report on Friday!  That should add to the fun.

Wheat was the leader today as worries continue with the drought in ND and W SD. I read one report today that had some ND wheat that was 6 inches tall and only a week or two from heading out.  Those reports are starting to spook the market as the = near term forecast continues to look dry for those areas.  The wheat strength also leaked into corn and soybeans.  Corn tried to test 3.80 today, but once again failed to break out.  It felt like today was going to be the day to do it.  Basis continues its whoa’s as the futures work higher.  Beans also tried to work higher this morning up double digits for a while, but also fell back at the close.  Crop ratings were out last night and corn ratings improved 3% to 68% good excellent.  Corn is now 96% planted and beans are at 83% planted.  Both are on the average pace.  It will be interesting to see if we can break out tomorrow, because every time we have tried we have failed the second day.  If we can break 3.80 July futures, it will open the door to 3.85 and possibly 3.92 resistance levels.  There was rumored to be a bunch of buy stop orders above 3.80, so that could get the funds nervous.

Corn basis continues to break on the PNW as the basis struggle happens a month earlier than expected. The board continues to trade flat and in a tight range, which is keeping the corn in the bins for the time being.  My worry is now; what happens to basis if we do get a weather rally?  Do have a home for corn before harvest?  There is always a home, but at what value remains the question?  Corn export inspections were very good today at 46.3 million bushels.  We need to average 30 million per week through the end of August to make it to the USDA goal.  Some experts think we could be over expectations by 25-50 mil.  Soybean export inspections were at 10.2 mil bushels.  Soybean exports need to average 8.3 mil per week to meet the USDA expectations.  Some feel a 25-30 mil increase could be in the cards for Friday's USDA report.  The monster South American crop could steer the USDA from making any changes.  Crop conditions will be out tonight and we are looking for a small improvement on the corn ratings.  This will be the first week we get a look at beans ratings.  Corn plantings are guessed at 96% and beans plantings are guessed at 81%. 

The big story today is the not the futures market. Everyone has been preaching that basis needs to get locked in just in case we get a rally and there just isn't a home for all the corn.  The only problem is that it never took a rally.  PNW corn bids have been crushed over the last two days.  Last week BNSF freight was trading huge values; today those values are trading near tariff.  That alone feels like it was enough to break basis as the commercials were trying to get in front of the action.  So now we need to decide if this is just head fake or if this is the new reality for the rest of the year.  My thoughts would be this is reality.  Everyone is aware of how much corn needs to move off the farm yet and we are now into June.  We have 4 months before new crop hits the bin and space is going to be needed by all.  Everyone continues to wait for the Chicago board to rally, which could still happen.  If the crop ratings hold at these levels for another month the funds should get nervous.  If the crop ratings improve with the warmer temps and the precip slows down a bit, we don't need to rally at all.  Time will tell and the weather is the key for now.

Corn bounces back on what should have been turn around Tuesday, but this week it happens to be Wednesday since there were no markets on Monday. The initial corn crop ratings were pegged at 65% good/excellent.  That is not very far from the guesses, but it still got some money flowing.  The other part of the money flow could have been as simple as month end and the funds could be short covering some of their positions.  We tested resistance at 3.765 July futures, but failed to break through once again.  The next level of resistance would have been at 3.81 futures.  Every time we test 3.75 - 3.76 we get some corn movement from the farmer, but it feels like there is a lot more waiting to move around the 3.80 - 3.85 area.  Planting progress was pegged at 91% for corn and beans were at 67% planted.  The thought of the trade today remains that if we cannot get this corn in the ground the acres will switch to soybeans.  Beans are going to have a very hard time recovering any time soon. 

Our initial crop rating will be out this afternoon. Corn ratings are guessed to be 67-68 percent.  Over the last 10 years we ranged from 63-78% at this time.  Most agree that these first crop ratings do not have a direct correlation to final yield this early.   We may have stressed the crop due to wet conditions, but if we get the heat we need the crop can bounce back very quickly.  Corn plantings are estimated at 90%.  On the bean side the average guess is around 64% planted.  Weather for the next 2 weeks suggests normal temps and normal precip.  Weekend rains were less than expecting in the east, which could be the main cause of the market puking again today.  Bean export inspections were solid today at 12 mil bushel.  Corn inspections were very good as well at 47 mil bu vs only needing 30 mil to reach the USDA goal.  Some could see final corn exports near 2,325 vs current projections of 2,225.  It will be interesting to see if we can get some of the business from SA in Aug and Sept.  China remains a slow buyer of soybeans as their crush margins remain poor.  It seems only a matter of time before there is an 8 in front of the bean futures.

Not a good day for the bean market today. We broke through the support of the April 11th low in Soybeans and that opens the door all the way to 8.85 July futures, which is another 55 cents lower.  Thoughts are that if we are going to continue to delay corn the acres will switch to beans.  That is remained to be seen at this time and seems like it should be a bit early to completely tank the bean market when we are only 53% planted as of Sunday night.  The funds remain short and are now adding to their bean short.  This close today is very bearish technically, but we will have to wait and see they continue to hit the sell button tomorrow ahead of the long weekend.  Volumes were lighter than usual today and will be again tomorrow.  The Monday night forecast will remain to be the key.  Cool and wet will be the main watch and also how much rain they receive in the east over the weekend.  Corn held support at 3.69, but if beans continue downward it is going to be tough for corn to rally much at this time.

The grain markets were pretty much a non-event today as we fail to get any new news. The 2 week forecast still looks cool and wet to me, but the market still thinks we will get the crop in the ground.  When looking at twitter it looks like there is a lot of replanting taking place and there are also some waiting for things to dry out to do so.  Export sales will be out in the morning, which could set the tone for tomorrow.  We have a 3 day weekend coming up as the markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day.  The Monday night forecast will be the driver if we stay cool and wet.  Until then we could see some short covering by the funds as we approach the long weekend and month end.  The next report is not until June 9th, but the big one will be on June 30th. 

Once again the rally is short lived as the corn market fails to even reach 3.80 July futures. The funds protect their positions once again as the 2 weeks forecast looks drier for now.  Crop progress was out last night and they were pretty much as expected with corn 84% planted and beans were at 53%.  There remains talk of replant areas, but for the most part we are on track.  Corn ratings will start next Monday, so we will have to see how those look.  I heard today that Iowa was going to start close to 75% good/excellent, but Illinois and Missouri were going to start in the mid to low 50's good/excellent.  Will that kind of number get people excited?  Everyone knows it is early, so if it dries out those ratings have a chance to improve quickly.  The June 30th USDA report is going to be massive as always.  There are a lot of thoughts that bean acres could be higher than the March intentions due to planting delays.  Beans acres are thought to be 90.0 mil and due to that corn acres would drop to 89.5 mil.  Not a huge difference, but it would make weather for corn a little more important to achieve trend yields.

The grain markets started strong on weekend rains and a cool weather pattern. Planting progress tonight will be interesting with estimates at 85-89% for corn.  If we come in under 85% it should be very supportive, but I would have to think we will be higher than that.  Beans are estimated 55-60% planted.  The next 2 week forecast remains cool and moist, so drying things out will be a slow process.  How long this weather drags out will determine if these funds decide to get nervous.  3.85 July futures remains my target initially.  3.20 cash corn will move bushels as most producers are waiting for an opportunity to pounce on some unsold bushels.  Depending on how many bushels move at that kind of level will determine if we can sustain any type of rally.  Supplies remain very comfortable, so without taking some yield potential out of the crop in the field the upside should be limited.   If we do get a rally remember to keep an eye on the basis.  It doesn't feel like this market is hungry for an overwhelming amount of grain to move, and we know there is an abundance to move yet.

Grain markets rebound today after yesterday’s beat down. The Brazilian Real is rebounding some today as well up 2.5% after President Tremer says he will not resign and he has done nothing wrong….We will see.  The US politics seem to have their own issues as well.  It is truly amazing how fast these different outside factors change and are affecting the grain market in a wild and volatile manner.  Rail freight is going absolutely wild again as well just to add to the excitement as the BNSF performance is poor.  How long that will last is remained to be seen.  We sit here and look at the weather everywhere as twitter explodes with pictures of soggy fields and standing water.  Scattered areas need finish planting corn and others need to replant.  Trend yield could be getting tougher to achieve the later it gets.  The other side of the fence has the funds holding tight on record shorts.  The carryouts remain very comfortable at the moment.  Until we extend this delay or have a summer weather problem we are going to remain in this range.  Expectations for Mondays planting progress have corn near 82-85%.  Some are thinking it could be 88% implying more progress in the east.

Everything in today's US grain markets seem to evolve around Brazil. Overnight news broke that their president, Michel Temer may be involved in a scandal.  This is getting to be an everyday norm anymore around the world.  News is that he has been recorded discussing a payoff to a witness involved in a graft probe.  This in turned caused the Brazil currency to crash and was down 7-8% at one point today.  Why does this affect the US markets?  If the Brazil currency crashes it will likely take export business away from the US.  It makes us much less competitive vs Brazil.  The other thing it does is entice the Brazil farmer to sell their crop as a currency play if the real looks like it will continue to fall apart.  President Temer is scheduled to speak around 2:00 central time today, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out.  Some rumors include that he could step down, but others say he won't.  We will have to see if this is a knee jerk reaction to political news, or if there is a big issue.  Export sales jumped back up for corn this week coming in on the high side of expectations.  Beans exports were also pretty good, but the Brazil news took the lead as beans were the big loser down 31.

The US dollar continues to get beat up as we are near 97.5, which is the lowest level since November. This continues to bring hope that the US can pick up more business and dip into to our monster carryouts.  The forecast looks wetter today into the 11-16 day forecast, which is bringing more doubt into the corn market.  We need to close above 3.72 in order to open the door back up to 3.80.  If we get to 3.80 there is corn willing to move, which could slow the rally if it happens.  The funds need to change their tune and start to bail out before we can sustain a rally.  US ethanol production was above last week yet again.  Ethanol stocks were also above last week.  Margins continue to shrink as ethanol was down 3 cents and corn was up 4 cents.  There remains talk that China bought 200 mt of US Soybeans.  China soybean margins are improving and with the US dollar on its heels, it should make it more attractive.  Export sales will be out tomorrow and we will see if we can continue the corn bounce off that news. 

Beans were the leader today and basically the only commodity that found some buyers. We had a USDA announcement today of 132,000 mt of old crop soybeans sold to Unknown.  We are also hearing China could be buying more US old crop beans. This could be the news that got the bean market rolling as South America was supposed to take that business away by this time.  The Brazil farmer remains a slow seller, which should help result in more US shipments.  The planting progress report was out last night and they pegged corn at 71% planted vs an average of 70 %.  Last year we were at 73%.  On the bean side we are at an estimated 32% planted, which is right at the average.  Last year we were at 34%.  For those that hoped these numbers were going to be bullish, it didn't happen.  It feels like this market just wants to sit here and trade in a range.  Funds remain at near record shorts in corn at around 210,000 contracts.  Hey…..we had our first weather guru out today that already wants to start talking about a hot and dry pattern shaping up for the US summer….why not!  Someone has to be first. 

Export sales for corn were pathetic this morning, which didn't help matters any. Every time it feels like corn wants to rally we cannot sustain the rally for two days in a row. Conab was out today and raise the Brazil corn crop to 92.8 mmt vs the USDA yesterday at 96.0 mmt. On the bean side Conab pegged Brazil production at 113 mmt vs the USDA at 111.6 mmt. The USDA and Conab are slightly different in each category, but either way you look at it it is a big crop. Corn and beans both closed above early support by a penny. Planting is moving along rapidly in the west, but still slow in the east. The 11-15 day forecast looks dryer at midday, which also could have sparked the selling. Selling remains nill as the farmers are busy in the field. Beans basis is shows continued improvement, but corn is steady.

USDA report day and the world ending stocks for next year was the friendliest portion for corn. They estimated the 17/18 world ending stocks at 195.3 mil tonnes. The average guess was near 209. The 16/17 world ending stocks were very close to expectations at 223.9 mil tonnes. On the US side alone they dropped the current 16/17 carryout 25 million bushel to 2,295 mil bu. The average guess was at 2,331. For the US 17/18 carryout they pegged at 2,110 mil bu vs an average guess of 2,331. Even with the world number being smaller for next year we are still at a very comfortable carryout. On the bean side of things they pegged the US 16/17 carryout at 435 mil bu vs an average guess of 441. US 17/18 carryout was pegged at 480 mil bu vs an estimate of 566 mil. That could limit our downside from here, but it is still a very healthy carryout. 16/17 world carryout numbers were very bearish at 90.1 mil tonnes vs a guess at 87.6. The 17/18 world carryout was at 88.8 mil tonnes vs an avg guess of 87.2. Now that this report is out of the way we go back to trading weather. They are still having lots of problems in the east, but it hasn't helped the futures yet.

Today was another very non-eventful day in the grain markets. The planters are rolling hot and heavy this week. Corn planting was pegged at 47% vs a 52% avg for this date. That average is slightly skewed because of last years blistering 61% pace at this time. The 2 week forecast continues to look wet for the midwest, which should offer support. Were beans higher because they don't like wet planting conditions? Or were they just higher because they can be? World demand continues to be very strong for beans. The railroad is trying to give incentives to exporters to keep the US competitive with South America. Tomorrow is report day, which should be the most exciting information of the week. Too bad most traders don't see and significant changes happening. It is going to take 3.80 - 3.85 July futures before corn starts to move in big chunks again. Basis continues to be steady even with the farmers not engaged.

Grains battle back some today after yesterday's beat down. Weather still looks a little wet to me in the east in the 6-10 day. Sunday nights forecast will be the key once again to start off next weeks direction. We have the USDA report on Wednesday and that is about all we have to shake things up at the moment. We just cannot seem to get anything to break this market out of its range. Supply is still more than adequate even with exports being very good. Planting pace will be hot and heavy in the upper midwest this weekend.

The wheat market got smoked today down 16 cents in Chicago and 14 cents in Minneapolis. The wheat tour deems the damage less than originally thought and that’s all it took for the sell paper to hit. Corn has to follows suit and now our entire rally is gone and it only last 3 days. I wouldn't panic yet, but it sure doesn't help the situation. Planting progress on Monday is going to look behind pace, but the May 15th planting progress should show us back caught up. This week will be a huge planting week if the weather holds. The beans managed to hang in there pretty well considering. Premiums on beans have picked up in areas and I would hope that continues. China was back in the US picture for July, which was also good to see. There are some thoughts that the USDA will decrease the carryout in next weeks report, which could be keeping beans from joining the downward spiral.

Funds defended their position hard today deleting half of the gain we had in corn yesterday. There is lots of talk that the wheat damage may be less than originally expected, but it is still early to determine how much harm it caused. Like I mentioned yesterday, we had a huge surplus in wheat, so we almost needed something like this to happen to eliminate some of that supply. I am still looking for corn to test that 3.85 July future area at some point. The extended forecast looks ok for the time being, but there is some talk of another system Thursday or Friday next week. We will have to see if that develops. Beans managed to hang in their pretty well as there is more talk of the US announcing a decision on the biodiesel anti-dumping case and new biodiesel taxes. If this happens some feel it could drop the carryout a fair amount and support prices. Planting pace last night was pegged at 34% for corn, which is right at average. Bean pace was pegged at 10% vs a 7% average.

Weekend weather was very wet through Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. Localized rainfalls were over 6 inches in some locations. There are several locations in IA and IL talking about having to replant. The bigger story was in the wheat market in Kansas. There was heavy snowfall in Western Kansas on wheat that already 25% headed out. The damage is still being determined, but there are estimate of over 100 million bu loss. That would take care of the high end on the wheat carryout. A new month probably helped bring in some new money and the funds might also be getting a little nervous. As of Friday funds were short over 190,000 contracts of corn. I think 3.85 July futures continues to be the target for now. I think it will be hard to get past that unless this cold and wet weather continues. The 11-15 day forecast at the moment looks to improve at the moment. Time will tell. Don't miss the boat on 3.20 - 3.25 cash corn. Fundamentals still have not changed on this corn crop.

Believe it or not corn was up 3 cents for the week. It feels like we are lower all the time. Beans were down 4 cents on the week. Funds continue to build on their short positions to end the month. We are going to have a hard time getting too much of a rally until we can get something to change their mind. The Sunday night forecast will be the key. The weather models have a couple disagreements at the moment for next week. Our next USDA monthly report is not until May 10th.

Trumps comments from yesterday were down played today saying they were going to renegotiate NAFTA instead of back out entirely.   If we did happen to back out it would be a major hit to the US corn market, especially with Mexico. Corn tried to bounce off of yesterday close, but it really didn't do much. Export sales this morning were very solid with corn slightly over expectations. Beans were almost double their expectations. The markets didn't seem to care. Weather remains very wet and cold nearby, but looks to dry out in the 7-15 day, but temps are still cool. Until the funds see a larger delay they are not ready to liquidate their position. I would expect a quiet day again tomorrow and then the Sunday night forecast will be the key along with the observed precip amounts over the weekend.

Corn and beans are now off the July futures.

As you probably know by now….Rain makes grain. Snow and cold perhaps doesn't help much though. The grain markets started out the morning slightly higher on continued worries about the 6-10 day forecast. The afternoon model has the 11-15 forecast drying out slightly, but I don’t think that is what caused the markets to collapse. Mr. Trump decided to mention again that he is getting close to signing a deal to pull the US out of NAFTA. That is the news that could have fueled the funds to protect their short positions once again. We all knew this day was coming, but the fear is about to be realized. What will the backlash be and will another deal be struck? Ethanol production this morning was pegged at 103.6 million bushels. Stocks continue to chop around the 23 million gallon mark. Export sales will be out at 7:30 tomorrow morning. I would be surprised if corn can go much lower at the moment. I am still looking for 3.20 cash before I get too excited about selling.

Export inspections were above expectations for all corn, beans, and wheat. That should have helped prices today along with the weather forecast. Funds continue to have a hefty short position in corn and they are not ready to bail out just yet. Planting progress will be out tonight. Estimates have corn around 15% and beans around 2%. Weather for the central and western belt looks very cool and wet over the next 10 days. It feels to me like we are in line for bounce here, but the funds want to see proof first. Everyone knows how much better technology has gotten and it doesn't take very long any more to get a crop in the ground. Dry weather in the EU should also help support the markets. It is going to be very hard to get more than 15-20 cents on corn for the time being unless the weather continues to be a factor.

Weather remains to be the key as some of the rainfalls totals look to be decreasing. Things look to be drying up for the time being, but there are more chances of rain mid next week. The Sunday night forecast will be the key. If we continue wet next week it could spark the funds to cover some of their shorts. Weekly export numbers were below expectations, which didn't help anything today. Bean exports came in at 8 mil bushel. The good news is that beans for June and July are becoming more competitive to China vs Brazil. Corn export sales were near 30 mil bushel, which was below the estimates. Weather remains the key, but corn has a better chance to rally vs the soybeans at this point. Other news is quiet and I would expect tomorrow to be quiet as well. Selling has shut off for now, but 10-15 cents would change that in a hurry.

The markets continued their downward spiral after last week’s small rally. Noon weather models reduced weekend rain events over much of S IA, N IL, MI, and OH. Argentina harvest weather has also improved, which just added to the pressure. Bean basis is finally starting to see some signs of life as it took $1.40 break in the market to make it happen.   Beans are only 15 cents off of last week’s lows. Corn is about 6 cents off of its lows. Even with the move lower in corn, basis does not feel any stronger in the west. PNW values are fairly weak once we get into the June and July time slots. Hopefully that will change, but with SA being more competitive I think it will be tough. As we saw yesterday with exports; demand is very high, but the supply and the ending stocks are also at a record high. It is going to be a struggle to get a rally without some type of weather event in the US corn-belt. We will get a shot to do some marketing at some point. Just make sure we don't miss out on an opportunity if it makes your farm cash flow.

Happy Easter weekend!

There are no markets tomorrow and glacial plains will be closed for the Good Friday Holiday. Corn managed to close at the 3.71 level, which should open the door to the next level of resistance at 3.78 futures. With the markets closed tomorrow, the Sunday night will be the key if we are going to be able to continue this rally. Export sales this morning were on the low end of expectations for both corn and beans. That might have kept the lid on corn today as it almost felt like we were ready to break out a little bit further. Basis is showing signs of backing off today as farmers are starting to show more interest. Funds are still short approximately 135,000 contracts of corn. They also continue to have a small long position in Soybeans for the time being. The funds know they cannot make any money on a weather scare if they don't carry a long position.

Corn tested the April 3rd high of 3.71 1/2 today, but fell off a touch into the close. Corn movement started to pick up once again as we neared this area. If we manage to close above that level it opens the door again to the old high of 3.80 futures. If we do trade up to that level I think the selling will pick up quickly. Have sell orders working just in case. 3.20 cash is where I would work some orders. Weather remains the key focus and we are still forecasting scattered rains for the next couple weeks. This could entice a small rally if these funds decide to cover some of their short position. The reports are out of the way and in the rear view mirror, so now it’s all about planting pace and crop conditions. Even after the last month of lower trading, corn is only 15 cents off its highs from early February. Beans on the other hand are $1.41 off of their highs from January. That is hard to believe.

The USDA report was out today at 11:00 AM and was pretty much a non-event. The US carryouts were right about as expected, but the world carryouts were all higher than the guesses. The 16-17 US corn carryout was was pegged at 2.320 billion vs a guess at 2.352. The world corn carryout was set at 223.0 mmt vs guesses at 221.8 mmt. On the bean side the US carryout was pegged at 445 mil bushel vs guesses at 447 mil. The world carryout on beans was the bearish number at 87.4 mmt vs guesses at 83.9 mmt. That should set the tone for a while and it will be hard to sustain much a rally. Weather will be key from here as we have nothing new to trade until the monthly May report. Conab was also out this morning with their update on the Brazil crop. The jumped the bean production to 110.2 mmt vs their previous guess at 107.6 mmt. The also jumped the corn production to 91.5 mmt vs the previous guess at 89.0 mmt. Nothing bullish to note there either.

Weather remains key as the Midwest looks to have a couple rain events spread out over the next couple weeks. Argentina weather is also wet and needs to be watched over the next 10 days. Tomorrow is the monthly USDA report, which will apply the information from the planting intentions report on March 31st and give us new carryout estimates. Most feel the bean carryout will continue to be healthy, which is the cause for the downward spiral we have been in for the last month.   Some feel corn carryout could drop on this report and if we do have planting delays that would only magnify any reduction to the carryout. I am not expecting any fireworks on this report, but as always one never knows.

The market continues it downward spin since the small rally we had after the report. There is word that the Chinese booked 10-15 cargoes of beans coming out of their holiday, but they were all out of Brazil. No surprise there. The next chance we have to move the market will be the monthly report next Tuesday. Corn stocks are estimated at 2.345 billion bu. Bean stocks are estimated at 447 million bushel. I don't expect anything real major out of this report, but as always one never knows. Other than that news remains quiet.

Not much to talk about today as half of our corn rally disappears today. China is on Holiday and they come back to work tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if we get any sniffs of export business. There is a lot of interest in president Trumps meeting with China's Pres Xi this week in Florida. Will that have any impact? Safras once again upped their Brazilian soybeans crop estimate to 111.5 mmt and they are currently estimated at 66% harvested. Brazil exported approximately 9.7 mmt of beans in March, which is a record. They did mention that port capacities were stressed at that level. We will have to see how that plays out going forward. Continue to watch the weather in the corn belt going forward as the current forecast looks pretty wet.

Corn continues to move higher off of the report and beans continue to move lower. Corn resistance is at 3.76 May futures and then 3.80. I would recommend orders working at 3.20 cash corn. Corn movement has picked up dramatically today, so I would expect basis to also be peaking here for the time being. We still have planting to get through, but once the farmer is out of the field basis should back off. Corn and bean export inspections were good again and once again ahead of pace to meet the USDA expectations. Upcoming weather is the 10-14 day forecast looks wet for corn belt. This could offer support if we start talking about delayed planting.

Tomorrow is finally report day! We have been waiting for this one for a while and it will be nice to get it out of the way. This report is known to have some big swings, so we will have to see if we get any surprises. Everyone is very beared up on beans, but it always makes me worry when everyone starts feeling this comfortable about a report outcome. The biggest problem is it seems to be a very easy argument to win because South America's crop continues to get bigger. Everyone is expecting a huge planting intentions number on beans as well. Will we see 89 million acres? Export sales have still been very solid on beans as we were over expectations again this week at 25 mil bushel. On the corn side we are expecting around 91 million acres tomorrow. Export sales were 28 mil this week, which was less than expected. We are still on a very strong export pace currently at 1,867 mil bu vs last year at 1,246 mil bu. March 1 stocks are estimated to be 712 mil bu higher than last year at this time, which would peg stocks at about 8,534 mil bu.

The grain markets were boring once again today. As I mentioned before we are just stuck here until Friday.   Wheat country in the South got a much needed rain fall and it looks like more is on the way. There are also a couple 6-10 forecasts out there that are calling for a very wet corn belt. We are getting close to planting dates by this time, so it will be interesting to see if we start with delays or not. It is time start thinking about spring weather finally. That alone could play a role to support corn from dipping too far on the report Friday if that holds true. On the bean side of things it seems everyone is in the camp that we will see a huge bean acre number on Friday. If stocks and everything hold true to expectations we could see a 17/18 carryout of around 600 million. That would be implying that November futures could trade near 8.90 vs today at 9.68. That would be very ugly, but with SA have a monster crop that is the potential downside risk in soybeans. It seems as though we always have a couple rallies during the year with weather scares, so if you get the chance to sell new crop over 9.00 again don't miss out.

Turn-around Tuesday was uneventful, but the good news is we managed to finish in the green for a change. We continue to sit and wait for the report on Friday as there seems to big range of guesses in both corn and bean acres. It feels like things should already be priced in, but one never knows if the USDA will grab onto one of the extreme guesses. Farmer movement is still almost non-existent, but the basis fixed contracts are picking up steam as recommended. If for some reason we get a friendly report on corn, basis might not hang onto these levels very long. I know I keep preaching it, but summer basis could struggle. If you have any questions on how a basis contracts works please give me a call. Outside markets have the Dow up over 150 points and the US dollar up that half point that we lost yesterday. There were still no USDA sales on the wire this morning. Hurry up and wait for Friday as that is the news we are going to trade until we start a weather market.

Same story just a different day. Corn saw some strong buying in the last final minutes of trade today pulling it back near unchanged. Hopefully that is a good sign for turn-around Tuesday, because we are in need of some improvement. There were no sales announced by the USDA today, but I would sure be expecting some ahead of Friday's report. The USDA was down over a half point today, which should also entice some business. There were rumors of Japan shopping for some corn for the summer months and looking to get some coverage ahead of the report. Mexico also tends to buy ahead of this March report, so we will see if those show up this week. Funds are now short about 100,000 contracts of corn, which is only half of what they were short last April. Basis continues to be on the improve as farmer movement is slow. I would expect that will be somewhat limited from these levels.   Friday's report will be the tell tail on that as well. I would be looking to lock in some basis on corn ahead of Friday's report.

Beans broke again today after closing below support yesterday. The funds continued to liquidate their long position today as beans were down another 15 cents. 9.60 May futures is the next level of support and that is only another 15 cents away. Corn managed to hang in there today as the US is becoming more competitive in the world. The US dollar was down again today as well. Producer sales are still non-existent at these prices, but we should be starting to look hard for opportunities on basis. Locking basis in on this futures break and moving the physical corn could be the perfect solution. If futures decide to rally on the report next Friday and the farmer starts to move corn, basis will back off fairly fast. We know the bins are still full and this crop is going to have to move at some point. Summer basis is still predicted to be poor as South America has a big crop to export. A basis contract also allows an 80% advance on your money once that grain is hauled. It could be a solution if you need cash today, but don't really want to sell your grain at these low futures levels.

Beans fell through the November low today opening the door to slip to 9.60 May futures. I don't see that happening ahead of the report on March 31st, but one never knows. FC Stone was out yesterday with their survey results for planted acres. They came up with corn at 91.6 million and beans at 87.3 million. That seems high on the corn acres compared to other guesses. The average guesses should be out soon for that report. Grains traded lower all day even with some very strong export sales on both corn and beans. Corn export sales were at 53 million bushel and bean exports were at 27.1 million bushel. Both were over expectations and also bigger than week. Total commitments on corn are at 1,839 vs 1,215 last year. The USDA goal is currently set at 2,225. Bean commitments are at 1,991 vs 1,606 last year. The current USDA goal is at 2,025. We are still on pace, but we also continue to expect shipments to slow as South America steps in.

We are going to open up free price later corn in Murdock only at this time. The reason for Murdock only is that we are trying to give some incentive to producers to haul to Murdock, so we will have less grain to transfer. I am already planning on hauling about 2 million corn from Benson to Murdock and that is hard on the bottom line, so that is why it doesn't make sense to have free price later corn in Benson. The reason for no free price later grain in Milan is because there is no more rail freight available for the rest of the summer besides the freight that I already have booked. Free price later in Murdock will be available as space is available between rail shipments. There is going to be a massive amount of corn to move this summer once the farmer gets done planting. Please be safe during these busy times as help will be limited as some employees move to help in agronomy. As always this free price later corn needs to be priced by our price later deadline, which is 10/19/17.

Another very quiet day in the grain markets as we wait for March 31st. Some early talk today has Pro Farmer guessing 89.3 million beans acres and 90.9 million corn acres. May beans seem to be stuck around the 10.00 futures mark and corn just over 3.60. I would expect little change ahead of the report. I mentioned yesterday that funds are already short corn, but the worry remains that the funds will want to go to a short in beans as well. South America has a monster crop and the US is looking at very large bean acres, so the cards are being dealt. Will we pick up more export business if we get too cheap? China could look to do some pricing below 9.90 May futures. If we want to drop below that the next technical level would be 9.60.

Overnight markets started out higher as we tested the 3.70 resistance level on May Corn. Beans traded up 8 cents as well in early trade this morning. Export inspections were solid for both corn and beans, so that was also good news. Corn was trading lower already by the time the export numbers were released this morning and beans couldn't hold onto a gain either. South American yields continue to rise as Agroconsult raised their Brazilian soybean crop to 111 mmt from 107.8 mmt in Feb. We all know that rain makes grain and once again that seems to be the case. 3.60 May corn futures should be able to hold for now with the USDA planted acres report looming on March 31st.   Funds are now short corn after last week as world supplies seem to be growing. We will have to see if the 31st changes their minds.

Grains bounce off their lows after a big corn export number this morning. One thing we know for sure is that cheap grain will always get a little extra interest on the export side, but not much interest on the producer side. I am going to venture out and say our lows are in heading into the March 31st report. The bad news is that there are some estimates out of Brazil guessing there corn crop at 100 mmt. USDA was at 91.5 mmt on March 9th and that even seemed high with CONAB at 88.9 mmt. 100 mmt would be a very bearish outcome to say the least. If we get back near 4.00 Dec futures the farmer will become engaged once again, but until then it is going to remain quiet.

Grains bounced slightly overnight, but a poor NOPA soybeans crush number put a fork in the beans trading higher. The Feb soybean crush was pegged at 143 mil bu vs estimates at 146.1. That is all the news it took to get May beans back below 10.00. The good news today was in the corn market. There is word that China bought 3 cargoes of US corn (195k tonnes) for May/June shipment. If that world holds true it would be largest 1 time sale of corn to China since Oct 2013. We have export sales out tomorrow morning, which should be decent once again. Other grain news quiet as the farmer continues to be disengaged. One an interesting weather note… we had a forecaster out this morning that said the US 16-30 day forecast suggests above normal rains for much of the central Midwest. He thinks it is going to slow corn plantings and could imply more bean acres? My opinion….It’s a little too early yet to worry about that!

Things were looking very ugly this morning when May beans broke through 10.00 and chugged all the way down to test the November lows of 9.91 1/2. That level held and beans bounced back to the 10.00 area. Basis is starting to perk up a little bit as farmer movement has shut off. We might get the basis shot we are looking for on this break, but it is still looking like the summer basis could be soft. USDA announced a sale of corn to Mexico this morning for next year. Hopefully that is a good sign! It was good to see corn close higher today to break the downward string, even though it was only by a penny. Other news was very light today as we continue to wait for the March 31st planting intentions.

The leaking on corn continues as we are now 6 days into the break lower. We are now 19 cents lower in that 6 day span. The next level of support is at 3.60, but the real strong support is down at 3.52. That level should spark some buying interest as we still have the entire spring and summer to trade weather. Informa was out this morning with their updated acreage guess for 2017. They came up with corn at 90.8 million planted acres and soybeans at 88.7 million. Those numbers were very close to their last estimates and also very close to expectations. Will the USDA surprise us on March 31st? USDA announced 120k tons of soybeans sold to Unknown this morning. Export inspections were as expected for both corn and beans this morning. Corn was near the high end of expectations, but thoughts are still that SA will start to take that business away. Wheat was the real dog today down a dime and that might have put some pressure on the corn market as well. Lets look for turn around Tuesday to break the streak lower tomorrow.

Grains continue to trade lower after yesterday's bearish stocks report. South America remains being the main topic of interest. Crops look fantastic in Brazil as the USDA alluded to yesterday. Argentina crop also look to be improving. Until they have a hiccup or we get a surprise in the planting intentions we are stuck trading sideways to lower. We have been stuck trading this range for 4 months now and that looks to continue. I wouldn't be in panic yet just because we broke off the highs. We don't even have any crop in the ground yet besides wheat. A lot of things can happen from now until the crop is in the bin.

CONAB was out this morning with their Brazil estimates and raised both their corn and bean projections. They pegged beans at 107.6 mmt and corn at 88.9 mmt. That was bearish news, but I also think it was expected news. Export sales this morning were on the low end of expectations, so that was also neutral to bearish. The USDA was out at 11:00 AM and also threw out a few surprises. I mentioned yesterday that they would lag behind CONAB, but instead they leap frogged them. They estimated the Brazil bean crop at 108.0 mmt and their corn crop at 91.5 mmt. Both were much higher than the average guesses were and in turn jumped the world carryouts. World corn carryout for 16/17 was pegged at 220.68 mt vs guesses at 218.5 mt. World bean carryout was put at 82.82 mt vs guesses of 81.5 mt. US corn carryout was left unchanged at 2.320 billion bushel. That was neutral. US bean carryout was raised to 435 million bushel up from 420 million in Feb. It is going to be very hard to get any type of push higher with these figures. March 31^st will be our next shot with the planting intentions report.

Today was another very quiet day as we head into the USDA report tomorrow. Estimates for the US corn carryout are pegged at 2.317 billion bushels. Will they raise US exports or just leave them alone assuming we are going to lose business to SA? On the bean side the US carryout is estimated at 418 million. The same export question is in play on the beans as many are thinking the Brazil bean crop is going to be huge. CONAB is also out tomorrow morning with their Brazil estimate. I mentioned yesterday the USDA is currently using 104 mmt for Brazil. Other estimates are much higher. I would guess that the USDA continues to lag behind on their guess and will throw out approximately a 106 mmt projection. Most experts are not expecting a market reaction to this report, but one never knows. I have a very hard time seeing how it can be bullish. I think we will have to wait for the March 31st planting intentions report to have a bullish tilt on corn acres.

Bigger South American crop still the main focus today. There are thoughts that Brazil could have a 110 mmt bean crop. There are lots of 108 mmt guesses out there, but remember the USDA is still at 104 mmt. That should change on Thursday. CONAB will be out on Thursday morning as well before the USDA issues their monthly report. Brazil road conditions have improved and the trucks are moving to the ports once again. More bird flu talk as another case was found in Wisconsin today. That is bearish to the grains as well, so hopefully these cases stay limited. South American exports are looking to be ahead of pace, so it remains to be seen how much that will affect US exports. Some experts still believe we need to raise US corn exports because we are well ahead of pace. Could that happen on Thursday? That could cut our carryout if it did happen, but I think it is a little early for that yet just in case we start to see cancellations.

Today was a very quiet day in the market as the market seems to be waiting for the monthly USDA report on Thursday. There is a bird flu case in Tennessee over the weekend affecting a large chicken farm. Hopefully they can contain that before the issue can get any worse. Export inspections were solid this morning for corn and beans as they came in at the high end of the guesses. The markets just shrugged that news off and traded lower after those numbers came out. Will these exports start to tail off as South America starts to ramp up exports and how fast does that occur? Basis continues to be weak on both corn and beans and that looks like it will continue. Beans should start to firm up at some point, but we have a lot of beans to work thru locally compared to last year. There just isn't much news to report at the moment, so we just chop around.

Very quiet day today as the markets didn't move much and the volume seemed light. For the month of March we are watching four main focuses. Brazil and Argentina 2017 production, as it will have a major impact on US exports. Right now they are looking good as I mentioned yesterday with Informa's numbers. We are also awaiting any news from the political front for any RFS changes. The big one we are waiting for in the March 31st planting intentions report, expecting more beans and less corn. Spring weather is the other major contributor as we get towards the end of the month. That could also be a factor to how much corn or beans gets planted. For now it still feels like it is going to be hard to break out of these ranges, but those 4 factors will ultimately decide.

Have a good weekend!

Exports sales were on the low end of expectations and that is when the selling picked up this morning. All week we have been higher on the political unknown to the RFS guidelines. Today, however was a technical disappointment as we couldn't push through resistance levels. We now have corn with a double top at 4.04 Dec and beans with a quadruple top in the last four months at 10.35 Nov futures. It is not going to be easy to push through these levels anytime soon. The next USDA report is on March 9th, but the "big" report is not until March 31st, which is planting intentions. Expectations are out for that with the USDA conference showing 90 mil corn and 88 mil beans, but if the corn bean ratio stays where it is at we could be closer to 90 mil on the beans. The wet weather in Brazil will cause some delays, but it is exactly what their second corn crop needed. Informa was out today and jumped their estimate of Brazil corn to 91.0 mmt, up 2 mmt. They also jumped Brazil bean production up to 108.0 mmt, up 1.5 mmt. I would expect tomorrow’s market to be quiet heading into the weekend.

The new month brought in new money today and it showed up in a big way. Yesterday we had the news of RFS changes and we are still getting conflicting reports, but whether it is true or not it has the markets excited. President Trump’s speech last night was deemed well received by everyone and the outside markets are showing that today. The DOW is making new highs up over 300 points today. In the end of January we broke 20,000 and today it broke the 21,000 level and currently is near 21,150. Corn and beans had a great day once again and closed right near the highs for the day. The high for the move on corn is only 5 cents away. Basis is hanging tough for now, but if we break thru these highs I am guessing that will change in a hurry. The bean highs are still 37 cents away. I think that will be tougher to achieve as the world bean situation is still comfortable. The other bullish bit of bean news today was that the main South American highway BR-163 is having major issues due to flooding, which is not allowing the trucks to get to port. There is a rumored 3,000 - 4,000 trucks at a standstill. Insurance levels are now set with corn at 3.96, beans at 10.19, and wheat at 5.65. Make sure you have orders working on corn near the highs at 3.17 cash or so.

Today we saw the result of what a single headline can do the market. Right out of the chute this morning things were trading slightly higher when talk broke that the president was going to sign an executive order that would increase US corn ethanol use year round and curb the biodiesel imports from Argentina. This would ultimately increase the domestic use of corn and the funds loved to hear that news and the markets reacted very quickly. Corn just recently traded down 19 cents in the past 7 trading days and at one point today got within 2 cents of those highs. Beans traded up as much as 34 cents today as well. The only problem is it didn’t last very long. News broke this afternoon from White House Spokeswoman Kelly Love and said "there is no ethanol executive order in the works". That is how fast news can spread from a single headline, yet it was just a rumor. If we didn't have orders working, it was unlikely we traded anything near the highs today. Buy the rumor, sell the fact.

Export inspections were solid for corn at 1.461 mmt vs 1.169 mmt last week. Beans were slightly under expectations at .705 mmt vs last week at 1.09 mmt. The markets continued the trend lower today, but it is starting to feel like the bleeding is ready to slow for now. It will be interesting to see if 3.65 May corn support can hold. Beans could still potentially lose 20 cents before they get to any kind of strong support. Hedge funds remain long on corn futures due to the thoughts of reduced corn acres and the continuation of record ethanol production. Other than those factors however, there just doesn't seem to be much bullish news. There is more talk today of China slowing their needs on Soybeans and also Argentina is said to be loading a boat of Soybeans for Mexico. First notice day for the March futures is tomorrow.

The USDA outlook conference was out with their guess on next year's balance sheet and the carryouts are currently right near this year’s levels. They pegged 17/18 corn carryout at 2.215 billion vs our current year at 2.320 billion. They projected an on farm avg. price of 3.50 vs this year at 3.40. The biggest changes to the balance sheet include ethanol use up 50 million bushel, feed usage down 150 million, and exports down 325 million. The change in the exports would be due to the big South American crop. On the bean side they pegged 17/18 carryout at 420 million, which is the same as our current projections for this year. Their guess for on farm avg. prices is 9.60, which is close to our current projections for this year at 9.50. The biggest changes to the balance sheet were crush up 15 million and exports up 75 million. Exports sales were out this morning and were bearish as they did not meet expectations.

The grain markets continue their slide lower as the Brazil harvest continues to look better than expected. Weather also remains near ideal for the Argentina crop as well. Agroconsult has raised their Brazil bean estimate to 107.8 mln tonnes, which is up from the previous estimate of 105.3 mmt. That is a pretty substantial gain and we are seeing the direct result hit the futures markets. We are down 50 cents on cash beans over the last week. We are nearing the first level of support, but there is still a good chance we lose another 20 cents fairly quickly. Corn has tried to hang around, but today it couldn't handle the pressure. Corn is down 14 cents over the same time period. Part of the reason corn might have had additional selling today is that South Korea cancelled a previous corn purchase from the US and switched to South America as they are cheaper for the March time frame forward. That was not good news for US exports. Will there be more of that to come with a big crop in SA? Even with the board breaking basis remains sloppy. Processors are gaining coverage due to the continue rail freight issues and logistical problems.  The USDA outlook confrence is estimating US corn acres are 90 million vs 95 million last year.  They are predicting the bean acres at 88.0 million vs 83.4 last year.  Not too much of a surprise there from what the guesses were at.

Overnight markets had both and corn and beans trading higher, but that only lasted about 30 seconds after the coffee break this morning. The weather forecast for South America continues to be nearly ideal, which put the pressure on early. Corn did manage to close higher, but only by a penny. Export inspections were in line with expectations and continue to be on a good pace even with the delays in the PNW. BNSF rail continued to be sluggish over the weekend, so nothing new there. Freight continues to trade at very high levels. Basis continues to be weak due to the freight situation as well, as it gives processors an easy out to buy corn. Until the freight issue resolves itself it is going to be hard to get basis to firm back up. It could take until April/May once farmers go to the field. Solid corn support is around 3.60 March futures. Bean support is around 10.17 March futures. Beans have the most room to work lower if this sell off wants to continue. 9.90 futures or lower is not out of the question if South American weather holds.

Funds hit the sell button hard this afternoon after making new highs in both corn and beans for the move. Corn ended up down 5 cents and beans were down 18 cents, which both finished near their lows for the day. There is still some concern of too much rain in Southern Argentina for next week as 6 inches are forecasted in some localized areas. We will have to wait and see how that materializes. I have a hard time thinking the funds are ready to liquidate their long positions just yet, but we need to remember how much weather premium is still in the bean market. Some experts are estimating $ .50 - $1.50 of weather premium still in the beans.   Like I mentioned yesterday, just look at last year’s insurance levels and you will see what I am talking about. Tomorrow is Friday and we are heading into a long weekend with Presidents day on Monday. There are no markets on Monday, so we will not be buying grain. Markets will resume Monday night at 7:00 PM. If you would like to put orders in on Monday we can do that.

Funds were back today buying grains across the board. It is pretty hard to find much of a reason why we need to trade higher on corn and beans besides the fund money flow. Ethanol production was down from the previous 2 weeks, but still remains at a very strong pace for the year.   NOPA crush numbers were in line with expectations at 160.6 million bushel. South American weather threw in a bit of concern of too much moisture forecasted for Southern Argentina. We will have to see how that plays out, but for now their weather has been improving. There continues to be more talk about Argentina increasing their corn shipments to Mexico as the renegotiations of NAFTA take place.   This could have a big impact on US corn as our current corn shipments to Mexico are up 8% from last year. Insurance levels are still being priced this month and continue to improve. This morning current levels were at 10.21 for beans and 3.96 for corn. I would like you to think about how this compares to last year. Last year the prices were set at 8.85 and 3.86. Beans are $1.36 better than last year currently and yet the world is sitting more comfortable on the carryout.

Rains in Argentina were less than expected over the weekend, so the flooding never happened this time. That sent a bearish tone over the markets this morning, but we did manage to rally higher during the session on good export inspections for both corn and beans. Corn broke through 4.00 Dec futures by a half cent, but still couldn't manage to close above that level. Other news was very quiet today. In the final 5 minutes of trade beans were trading higher, but someone hit the sell button hard closing beans down a nickel. We will have to see if that carries into tomorrow. It still feels like beans have about $1.00 of South American weather premium built in, so make sure to get some sales on the books if you have not done so already. Insurance prices are still being set in the month of Feb for which we have 10 trading days left. Current insurance levels have corn at 3.96 and beans at 10.20. That is quite a bit better than last year.

More flood talks in Argentina had the market on edge today and the markets were able to move higher. We will once again have to wait and see if the threat is valid. Corn made new highs up to 3.75 March futures, but Dec corn is still stuck below 4.00 futures. 3.85-3.88 March futures remains the target. Have orders working at 3.25 cash. I am already seeing some signs line up showing that if we get that rally basis is not going to be able to handle the pressure. With corn moving higher daily ethanol becomes an even bigger struggle and plants are starting to back up basis. If the bin doors open on this rally that is only going to continue.   Beans had a flash sale announced this morning to unknown. 10.80 March futures remains the upside target on beans. Basis had been telling us forever that we have a surplus, but the fund money is in control. Have orders working on old beans at 9.75 cash.

Have a good weekend!

The USDA report had very little change from January. US Corn carryout was at 2.320 billion, which was down slightly from the 2.355 in Jan. Beans US carryout was pegged at 420 million, which was unchanged from January. South American production was the major number we were looking for a change. Brazil beans were left unchanged at 104 mmt. Argentine beans were down slightly at 55.5 mmt due to the flooding. I think most people were looking for a higher Brazilian production that, but USDA left it unchanged. CONAB was also out this morning with their Brazilian bean estimate and they came up with 105.6 mmt. That’s a big difference. On the corn side the USDA pegged Brazil corn production at 86.5 mmt, also unchanged from January. CONAB estimated Brazil at 87.4 mmt. USDA estimated Argentine corn at 36.5 mmt also unchanged from January. There just isn't anything bullish that came out of the report, yet corn made a new high before breaking back into the red. With the report out of the way it looks like we continue to be range bound.

USDA report is tomorrow at 11:00 AM. Beans made another rally today ahead of the report, which puts them at a two week high. Corn is also at its high as we try and break out of the range once again. There were a couple bullish bits of corn news today. Chinese Govt. increased their estimate of Chinese corn consumption by 21 mmt to a record 197.6. Ethanol production continues to be on an impressive run as stocks continue to climb. The bulls want to see an increase in use for ethanol and exports tomorrow on the report. That is what it is going to take to break out higher. On the bean side they are also looking for a raise in exports. Chinese demand remains high, but South American exports will come into full swing shortly. If we do not get a raise in exports tomorrow I would expect the bean market to sell off. It feels like the markets continue to swim in beans. CONAB will be out tomorrow morning as well with their updated guess at SA production.

Corn and beans are both trading higher today on very little new information. Funds are now long both corn and beans. Beans are approaching their record level long once again. There are plenty of different ideas being thrown around for the report on Thursday. The question remains if we can get enough to spark the corn to break out of our current range. 3.71 March futures remains solid resistance, with 3.85 the next target. Basis still doesn't feel like we need to break out higher. Ethanol margins remain very tight, which is causing ethanol markets to back off slightly. PNW freight is still causing the commercials to sell their length out into April/May, which is also making nearby basis feel heavy. If the futures decide to take a jump I would expect basis to take a hit as well. The on farm stocks are huge this year and once the bin doors open it is going to flood the demand quickly. How much can the pipeline handle? Last year we had a solid corn export market June/July/Aug/Sept, but I would not guarantee that this year. Be thinking about making sales on corn and finding a way to re-own it on paper if you think the futures are going to rally.

Beans were higher today as the bean oil market leads the way.   There were also thoughts that China will pick up their buying pace as they are back from their holiday. Brazil rains over the weekend have also slowed harvest slightly, which could have also played a role in the higher trade. The USDA will be out on Thursday with their monthly report and most are expecting a slight drop in the world soybean supply due to the flooding in Argentina. We know Brazil will pick up some of the slack, but how much? Export inspections were better than expected on both corn and beans, but corn failed to find any kind of a bid after trading higher overnight. The farmer continues to remain quiet as selling is light. For those of you with HTA's left to roll, the spreads are holding steady with corn at 7 cents and beans at 10 cents to the May Futures. Nothing much too exciting for news.

Another quiet day in the grain markets. Beans broke lower right out of the coffee break after trading higher overnight. For the week beans were down 22 cents and corn was up 3 cents. I would expect more of the same next week. Beans losing ground to corn and therefor tightening up the corn:bean ratio. Corn does not need to move higher if that scenario plays out. Informa was out today with their updated world crop estimates. They pegged 2017 world beans at 338.4 mmt, which was up slightly from their previous estimate due to a better Chinese crop. They also bumped the 2016 by 1.5 mmt due to a better than forecasted Brazil crop. Their 2017 corn estimate came in at 1,013 mmt, which was also higher than their previous guess by 15.0 mmt. They also raised the 2016 crop by 700 mmt due to a better Brazil crop. USDA is out next Thursday with their monthly report. The guesses very on corn due to different variations of ethanol demand, residual, and export use due to the good crops in SA and also possible US trade issues. Bean numbers are not expected to change much from Jan. Maybe lower the Argentina crop slightly, but raise Brazil to offset any loss.

Not much change today as the market basically sat still with the exception of Nov beans, which were up 6 cents. Export sales were solid this morning across the board. Corn exports were at 1.140 mmt, which were above the top end of guesses of 1.100 mmt. Bean exports were in the range of expectations at .624 mmt. That is good news, but after yesterdays rally it still wasn't enough to break out higher. Argentina had more rainfall last night with good coverage of .25 to 1.0 inches. The next 10 days are calling for normal precip in both Argentina and Brazil. We are pretty much stuck waiting for something new to trade. The next USDA report is next Thursday, so we could be stuck until then. February is the all-important insurance month as well, so it is good to see prices above last years level. It would be a good month to see prices break out, but I have a feeling there will be plenty of sellers pouncing if we can get another 10-15 cents in corn. If you are sitting on March HTA's it might be a good time to get them rolled. The March/May corn spread is trading 7.25 cents and it is hard to see it getting much wider from here. March/May beans are trading at 10 cents, with the potential to move to 11.5 cents.

The new month sparks new money interest. Today was a great bounce considering we didn't have a whole of news to spark it. Overnight sessions had everything lower and looked as though we were going to sell off today. Nov beans broke through the 10.00 mark early last night, but somehow rallied back to close up 11 on the day. South American weather is still better than it was last week. Rains in Argentina were better than expected yesterday. Weather is not an issue today. We did have a sale of beans announced to unknown this morning, which was good to see with China on holiday. Beans oil also helped lead the way higher on beans. On the corn side Ethanol production was large once again. Ethanol margins are tight, but the crush continues to be huge. Corn closed within 3 cents of last weeks high of 3.71 March futures. Don't forget about starting new crop sales around 4.00 futures on Dec corn as well.

Politics lead the way in the news headlines today and that could be spilling over into the grains as well. Financials, grains, and energy’s were all in the red today as traders hit the sell buttons hard. I argued last week that meal and soybeans could do most of work to close the gap between corn and beans and today was a perfect example. We will have to see if it continues. South American weather is on the improve and that alone should have been enough for the sell off in beans. We had a large amount of weather premium in that market. Farmer selling has hit a wall at these levels. How far can we go down? Corn Support is at 3.45 and 3.56 March futures as we continue stuck in our trade range. Bean support is at about 10.12 March futures, with 9.89 possible. Basis should be able to improve slightly if the selling continues. Rail freight remains a mess over the weekend. China is on Holiday this week. Month end is tomorrow, so the selling could continue as trades liquidate their positions off the big rally.

Not much changes today as the markets continue to digest the size of the South American crop and the changes to the US President. What is Mr. Trump going to do to our trade policies? Good or Bad? There are a lot of questions at the moment.   Argentine planting is about wrapped up on both corn and beans. Weather has also improved. Brazil has a monster coming and harvest is already underway. Brazil should more than enough make up for the losses in Argentina due to floods. Beans feel like they continue to be top heavy and right now I feel like they are going to continue to trend lower. The corn : bean ratio is still out of hand at 2.6. We might need to encourage more corn acres. Will the Trump effect slow demand? Corn and bean basis continue to fall apart. Ethanol margins are poor. The processors feel covered thru Feb as a lot of grain has moved on this rally. There is nothing really friendly to help basis improve. For the week corn was down 7 cents and beans were down 18. The funds are still a healthy long in beans and if South American concerns subside we should continue to leak lower in beans and it would also relax the corn : bean ratio.

Another quiet day in the grain markets. Corn and beans both held initial support last night, but couldn't muster up much of a bounce off those levels. Corn caught a bid in the final minute, so we will have to see if we can continue that tomorrow. Make some sales at the high of the range at 3.70 futures if you have not done so already. Ethanol stocks were large once again this week. Export sales will be out tomorrow AM. Informa was out yesterday with their acres estimates. They predict bean acres at 88.648 million acres and corn at 90.489 million. Beans were down a freckle from their previous guess and corn was up a freckle. No surprises for the most part there. Rail freight continues to be the story as Jan freight just traded 3,500 bucks today. We have not seen these types of levels since about 4 years ago. The rail freight situation is keeping South America the cheapest source of grain by far. The US Dollar was down again today nearing the 100 mark. Feb 9th is the next monthly USDA report, but the next "big" report is not until March 31st.

Export inspections were solid on corn coming in at the top end of the guess. Bean export inspections were slightly under the low end of expectations.   South American weather was good over the weekend with Northern Argentina staying dry after last week’s big rain event. The next week also continues dry with rains returning in the 10-14 day forecast. Southern Argentina got some welcomed rain over the weekend. Support held the first round of selling at 10.56 March futures. We were due for a break in the bean market after a nice rally. Basis continues to tell us a different story as beans moved in a big way last week. Corn is still stuck right near 3.70 March futures as we are trying to decide if we want to break out or not. Corn feels like it needs to rally to buy some acres, but if beans take a step back corn does not need to move higher. That is the scenario I see playing out at the moment. The US dollar continues its collapse, which should help make the US more competitive on exports. There are still concerns on the political front. We will have to see what happens with the new trade deals.

Not much changed today as the bean market is showing signs that we are high enough for now. Argentina weather is dry for the next 6-10 and that should help soak in some moisture. Basis continues to be very weak on beans and corn decided to join in today also losing a few cents. We did have a flash sale this morning of some corn, but looks to be routine business. We have not seen any bean sales for quite some time now. Farmer selling has been strong the last 3 days and if prices decide to break out further then selling will pick up more. We know there is a lot of grain in the country, so it just a matter of time and the market is just waiting for it. If the futures decide to take a step back then basis should improve, but it is going to take some time, especially on the beans. The market seems to be flooded and waiting for the river to open. Keep selling new crop beans at these levels. 10.42 Nov futures is the high and we are approaching that. If the experts are right and the corn: bean ration stays where it is at, we could top 90 million acres of beans planted next year. Last year we were just over 83.

Overnight markets were weaker, but that didn't last very long once the market opened after the doughnut break. Beans made a new high for the move today on continued worries of Argentine rainfalls. Funds continue to buy both the beans and the meal, but it almost feels meal led once again. We closed right at 10.75, which was yesterday's high. Selling was very heavy in final minute’s trade, dropping the futures 5 cents from the highs. This does open the door to 11.00 March futures, but I would have felt better about that if we would have closed above yesterday’s highs. Time will tell. The big worry in my opinion is if we see China cancellations with the big bean rally. If that happens it opens the door for a big drop. Corn futures also made a new high for the up to 3.67 futures, but dropped back to close unchanged. 3.70 remains the target. Is corn going to have to rally to buy acres? Do bean futures break before corn needs to buy acres? Those are two big question marks. Keep an eye on South American weather. Basis continues to paint a different picture in the bean market. That usually means this is a selling opportunity.

Today was a wild day following the holiday weekend. Rains over the weekend in Argentina were way too much in certain areas. Some reports totaled 6-14 inches locally with heavy localized flooding. Corn is 91% planted in Argentina and this could put a halt to that for a while. It will be interesting to see how this plays out because Brazil is still having nearly ideal conditions and that could make up for the difference. Also the forecast in Argentina for the 6-10 day is hot and dry, so that should help the area that got rain. Export inspections were better than expected for beans and corn were good as well. NOPA crush results were 160.2 million bushels vs an expected 162.8, so that was bearish. Beans tested 10.75 March futures, but could break through. I think that level holds for now. Corn was pulled higher on bean and wheat strength and seems poised to test resistance at 3.70 March futures. Corn and beans seen big movement today and that will continue at these levels. Bean basis puckers big time tonight, but corn managed to hold still for now. Look to price some more corn and beans near those target levels.

Export sales were out this morning. Corn and wheat fell in the estimated ranges, but beans were lousy. On that note we started the morning very quiet with little movement in either market, but that changed at 11:00 when the USDA report came out. Everyone we leaning bearish and we all know what happens when everyone is on the same page…..the opposite! The USDA dropped the US soybean carryout 60 million bushel. That is the only headline that mattered today it seems, but there is more. The USDA raised the Brazil estimate to 104 mmt, which is enough to offset the US change and the world carryout stayed unchanged at 82.3 mt. Up 29 cents today is a little over kill in my opinion, but the funds love to play in the beans. Meal is the bigger story up 13 bucks on the day. Every time we have gotten a rally lately it seems like it is meal lead. I don’t trust it. Corn futures dropped initially on the report as the Dec 1 stocks were higher than expected. Corn carryout was very close to average estimate at 2.355 billion bushels. Even with beans up strong it could barely get corn into green figures. This report just solidified we are stuck in our trading range for even longer.

Corn traded a 5 cents range today as we traded both sides of unchanged. Beans traded higher all day and finished near the highs for the day up 11 cents. Export inspections were slightly better than expected, which might have sparked the market a little bit to finish near the highs. Other than that news remains quiet once again. Farmer selling remains slow. Favorable China soybean crush is also noted today, which is supportive to US beans. South American weather looks to be good at the moment. I wouldn’t expect much change ahead of the report on Thursday. Most people are still leaning towards a slightly bearish tone. If we get a chance to move corn up a nickel from here ahead of the report it might be a good idea. This report is a big one and will set our direction until the March planting intention report.

Beans managed to hang onto support and bounce nicely today. We are still range bound in both corn and beans and I would expect that to continue for a while. Corn tried to break through initial resistance at 3.60 March futures, but couldn't break through it. It will be interesting to see if we can do it tomorrow. 3.69 March futures is still the big target. Movement today picked up slightly again, but nothing major. There is more rumors of spots in Argentina being too wet, which could have helped get the bounce started today. Palm oil also gave the soybeans a boost. We need to continue to sell the upper end of the ranges on both corn and beans. Have some orders working around 3.10 cash corn and 9.30 cash beans. It is going to be tough to break out higher than that ahead of the report on Jan 12th.

The start of the New Year is here, but nothing has really changed in the grain markets. News remains quiet. The farmer remains quiet. The weather remains cold and little grain is expected to move in the near future. South American weather still has a couple concerns. NE Brazil continues to dry out, but they do have a chance of rain in the near future. There is now some talk of parts of Argentina being too wet. Things are starting to remind me of our US drought in June/July……Never Happened! Export inspections were poor for corn last week, but it was also a holiday week. Bean inspections were in the range of expectations. There just isn't anything else to talk about today. We are still looking for March corn futures to trade in the 3.60-3.70 range. If it happens lets sell some. Have orders working there is you desire. Just don’t miss it. The next report is on Jan 12th and most are leaning towards the bear side.

The end of the calendar year has arrived. Happy New Year to everyone. We had a quiet end to a very light week of trading. Export sales were solid for wheat and meal. Corn exports were in line with guesses. Bean exports fell below expectations. Beans had an interesting day today as we started lower, then traded up 6 cents, but finished down 9 cents. The US Dollar might have given it a slight boost as it traded down almost a full point at one point. Year-end positioning could be blamed for the sell off in the final minutes. Other news was very quiet once again. Cold weather returns in the U.S. next week. The forecast in Argentina is wetter for the next 1-5 day and 11-15 day forecast. The Monday afternoon forecast will be key for next week’s direction. USDA report is Jan 12th. Grain markets are closed Monday, but reopen at 7:00 pm.

Today was another very non-eventful day. Volumes continue to be very light as we are in the middle of a holiday week. Tomorrow is the last day of trading in the calendar year, so we should see some position squaring as always. The markets are open the full session tomorrow, but are closed on Monday. They will re-open Monday night at 7:00 PM. South American weather will be the main lead over the long weekend as we basically have nothing else to trade at the moment. We do have export sales out tomorrow AM, which could help set a direction for tomorrow. PNW corn and bean basis continues to improve, but rail freight continues to eat all and more of the improvement. Cold weather and poor railroad performance are to blame. It will be interesting to see how long it can continue, but it is getting very ugly.

Yesterday the market rallied on little news and the thought of Brazil weather could turn drier. As it turns out, it looks like corn over did itself as we almost completely erase yesterday's gain. There was some farmer selling yesterday, but that dried up by this afternoon. The ethanol report is out tomorrow and export sales will be out on Friday due to the holiday. Trade volume also looks light due to the holiday week. News is scarce as we just continue to wait for the Jan 12th report and watch South American weather.

The markets were able to put on a little post-Christmas rally for everyone today as funds covered some shorts from last week’s beat down. We are about ready to jump into a new calendar year, so that also could play a role to have funds to covering shorts in corn. Export inspections were solid for both corn and beans today as they fell right in line with the high end of expectations. We know our exports are strong now, but the spring/summer months are concerning to me. South America is still much more competitive than the US for that time frame.   It will be interesting to see if that changes. South American weather will be a key factor in that. Weekend rains were better than expected for Argentina and there is still more in the forecast for the next 5 days. It surprises me that the futures were able to rally this much today on that news alone. Let’s see if we can hold onto it this the rest of the week.

Beans break further on more rain in Argentina. We are getting closer to 9.92 Jan support. It will be important to hold that level or there is a chance we could make a break for 9.50. New crop beans have also broke beneath 9.00 cash, which will put a halt to farmer selling there as well. We did have a sale of corn announce to Mexico, which is just routine business. Export sales were good for both corn and beans, which has been a consistent theme lately. The market just seems to expect it to be good every week. There just isn't a lot of new information to trade beside South American weather. Grain markets close at noon tomorrow for the holiday weekend, so I would expect a light volume day.   Hopefully we can hang onto these support levels.

Today was a very quiet day with corn trading in the red for the 5th straight day. Corn is now down 9 cents for the week and beans are down 30 cents. We had a fresh sale of beans announced to China this morning of 132K tons. Here are a few more quick facts about the current demand. Corn for ethanol demand is running 36 million bushels ahead of its seasonal pace. Corn exports are running 11 million ahead. Bean crush is running slightly behind pace by 2 million bushel. Export inspections are more than 200 million ahead of the 10 year seasonal pace implied by the USDA. With that being said we are expecting a record pace for all of which this year, but it is good to see the business is taking place. We also need it to continue if we are going to meet expectations and have a home for the big crop this year. Farmer movement has slowed for the holidays, but many expect it to pick up early next year. Basis continues to improve slowly near term, but if the board rallies and farmers start to sell, the improved basis is not going last very long. Everyone has a lot of bushels to move this year and the market knows it is going to come at some point.

We broke through 10.20 Jan support last night within the first hour of trade and it just continued to go lower from there. Brazil is expecting a very large crop that could come close to 106.0 mmt. With the rains that fell in Argentina and more in the forecast they are also off to an ok start. Normal weather in SA in January could lead to a record world soybean carryout. The same story occurs in the corn market. Brazil is estimating their corn crop at 88.0 mmt vs last year at 67.0 mmt. That is a lot more corn available to export as well. The US dollar remains over 103.0, which remains plenty high and could go higher with more interest rate hikes in the near future. What do we do from here? Corn seems cheap at these levels, but looks to stay rangebound.3.70 March futures remain my target, but it could take a while to get to that point. Farmer selling has dried up at these levels, so basis might need to do more work. Bean support is now at 9.93, which is still 12 cents away. I would look to test that level before we have a chance to move higher again. Just remember that the world loves beans and we usually always find a home for them at some point.

Argentina received better than expected rains over the weekend and has more in the forecast for later this week. That is the one news that we needed to roll the market over. The good news is that we managed to hold to hold 10.20 Jan futures once again. That could change very soon though. If we break through 10.20 it opens the door to 9.93. Export inspections were near the top end of the guesses on beans, but poor for corn. Corn traded down 3 cents today as they followed beans.   South American weather looks normal for the next week. I have heard some reports that early Brazil soybean harvest could start in the next 7-8 days.   Basis continues to improve slowly, but BNSF freight is still getting more expensive. The next USDA report is not until Jan 12th. All we have to trade until then remains South American weather.

It looks like it is going to rain in Argentina over the weekend and then again next week as well. Sunday nights weather will decide which direction we want to trade for the current forecasts have shifted the rain slightly north, so we will have to wait and see where is falls. USDA had a flash sale announced of 205,000 tons of beans to unknown. So far this week China has bought 20 plus cargoes of US beans, with at least half of them off the PNW. It will be interesting to see if we can basis to improve or if the rail freight just offsets that as well. Lower currency and high margins is helping China buy soybeans for import. It was a positive sign to see Jan bean futures hold 10.20 this week. That will be the key level to hold next week as well.

Overnight markets were very quiet. Export sales came out this morning and we great for both corn and beans. Corn was pegged at 60 million bushel. Total commitments are now at 1,303 vs 736 last year. Bean exports were pegged at 74 million. Total commitments there are 1657 vs 1,283 last year. Initially the markets didn't even react to these numbers and were trading slightly lower at the coffee break. At about 9:30 beans popped and jumped about dime in the matter of a couple minutes. The reason for the pop could have been purely technical that we managed to hold 10.20 Jan futures. The US dollar is again offering some massive resistance to grains as we are up another full point at 103.00 due to the feds raising interest rates. There is also talk that there are more rate hikes to come. The dollar is not going to help US exports. Rail freight has now moved sky high for nearby freight, which seems to be holding basis improvements back in the country. Informa was out this this morning had corn yield at 176.1 up from 174.0 in November. They had the bean yield at 52.8 vs 52.4 in November. 2017 corn acres at 90.15 million, down 4.2 mil from last year. 2017 bean acres at 88.9 mil up 5.2 mil from last year.

Another very quiet day in the grain markets. Brazil weather is still nearly ideal. Argentina has added more rainfall for next week, so now we just need to see if it actually happens. Ethanol took a hit of about 6 cents today as production was at a new high for the week. There just doesn't seem to be anything for news that wants to move the market one way or another. The bulls are still clinging onto ideas of inflation coming into the commodities next year and are still building a long position in beans. The bulls continue to buy the breaks in the market. They also see some bean oil production issue, which could limit the downside in beans. The bears on the other hand see ample supply at the moment. Weather looks to be turning wetter in Argentina. Brazil weather is nearly ideal. The US dollar has rallied 6% over the past 6 weeks, which makes us less competitive in the world. Current projections have bean acres at 88-90 million for next year in the US compared to 83.7 million this year. Keep that in mind when you are thinking about next year. Nov beans over 10.30 futures should be looked at. 10.50 Nov is a strong target at the moment. Have orders working if you have interest. Don't fall asleep and not look ahead to next year

Corn tried to be the leader today up 4 cents at one point. Farmer selling picked up some, but still remains minimal. 3.69 - 3.74 March futures remains the target on corn. Beans were quiet today as the forecast in Argentina has normal rains for next week. Ethanol plants are enjoying some hefty margins after ethanol was up 7 cents yesterday. Basis improves on that end of the corn market. BNSF freight is getting very expensive with the cold temps and holidays approaching. Every uptick in PNW basis is due to the higher freight, so basis effectively doesn’t improve in the country. Cold temps have the trucks parked as nobody wants to move any grain, so the only sales being made are on Price Later bushels. New delivery is going to be slim until the New Year, which is another reason ethanol plants are searching for corn to get enough covered to cover the holidays. The markets are basically stuck waiting to see if it rains in Argentina next week and the Jan 12th report.

It was a very quiet day to start the week. Beans tried to break out overnight trading up 9-10 cents, but by the time we woke up this morning we were trading lower. We had another sale announced this morning of 256,000 ton of beans to China for this year. Export inspections were poor for corn at 33.9 million bushels, which is much lower than the 41.3 million that we need to meet the current projections. Bean inspections were solid at 67.5 million vs the 25.6 million needed to me the current projections. South American weather is still the key at this time. The Brazil forecast continues to look good. The southern portion is slightly dry, but not hurting at the moment. Argentina does have rain in the forecast for the later part of this week, so it will be key to see if that actually materializes. Ethanol is on a tear today up over 7 cents. Corn basis continues to perk up slowly as movement remains fairly slow. Bean basis remains sloppy to start the week. My target remains 3.69 March corn futures to make sales on corn. Beans sales at 9.50 cash still make a lot of sense. New crop bean sales above 10.30 Nov also look very appealing to me.

The USDA report was exactly what we expected it to be. The USDA pretty much left everything unchanged from last time. Brazil corn was up 3 million tons from the previous USDA guess. Brazil beans and all of Argentina were left unchanged from the previous USDA guess. World corn and bean stocks were both higher than the previous estimates. So there was nothing bullish in this report. We traded both side of unchanged after the report, but for some reason heavy buying took place in the last half hour of the trade. South American weather will be key to start out next week. The next big report is not until Jan 12th, so we have a while to trade this information.

Not much action today in the grain markets. We had some more bean sales announced this morning. 136 mt to unknown, 264 mt to China, and 66 mt to China for the next marketing year. Those sales might have got beans back to green figures today. Weekly ethanol production was above last week and also higher than last year. Ethanol stocks were above last week, but lower than last year. Margins are still positive on ethanol. We have the monthly USDA report on Friday. It is hard to think anything real bullish can come out of it and it is looking to be a ho hum report. The next "big" report is on Jan 12th. South American weather has not changed much. Brazil 1 week weather calls for normal rains across the central and north areas but south could be dry. Argentina's next 10 days look dry, but chances of rain come back for the 11-14 day.   Time will tell. Export sales will come out in the morning. Beans have a shot at testing the highs ahead of the report, but I would have orders working there. I would expect some selling pressure ahead of the report coming off a nice rally.

Markets caught a bid again overnight and moved beans within 3 cents of their high back on Nov 28th. There is still a concern with the unknown of Argentine weather as to how long the dryness will last. Let’s take a look at the bigger picture here… Brazil is estimated at 90% planted, which is slightly ahead of pace. Weather looks good in Brazil. No problems there. Argentina is pegged at 46% planted, which is behind their normal pace of 54%. The 2 weeks of dry weather is going to allow them to catch up. Why are they delayed planting in the first place? Too wet? Then the dry weather should be beneficial for the next 2 weeks. Traders always want to look beyond 2 weeks and try to predict the future and to be honest our weather professionals have not been very reliable at that. Just look back to June and see how our drought turned out. The money is always in control of the markets and it gives us great opportunities to make some sales. I for one think this is a great opportunity. Look to make more sales near 3.68 March corn futures, 3.95 Dec 17 corn futures, 10.63 Jan bean futures, and 10.40 Nov 17 futures. We are strictly in a SA weather market, so the volatility will be high. We have USDA report on Friday. Just one more tid bit before I get off my soapbox today. Last December we had the world bean carryout at 82.6 mmt. We were trading a range of 8.60 – 9.10 futures at that time. Friday we are predicting a world carryout of 81.0 mmt. We are trading futures in a range of 9.75 – 10.60. Do you see anything wrong with that? Just saying…….

Export inspections were solid today for both corn and beans as they were slightly higher than expectations. Argentina weather looks dry for the next two weeks. They do have rain chances after that, but confidence is low on the forecast. Remember what our weather market was like this summer….here we go again. It is hard for me believe they dried out completely over the weekend after everything was good as of Friday. Long range forecasts are leaning towards drier weather Dec-Feb and that’s all it takes to put some fear in the market. We did have a sale announced to China this morning for beans.   There are also rumors flying of a bunch more corn and bean sales to China, both US and South America.   The US dollar took a hit today down ¾ of full point, which also helped the grains. Corn bounced today as we jumped a dime in about 10 minutes. We broke through the 50 day and 100 day moving average in that short time span, which caused additional short covering. The next big level of resistance in corn is at 3.69 March futures. Both corn and beans were moving today.

Not much news today other than the export sales. Corn was poor at .761 mmt vs estimates at .900 - 1.200 mt. Beans were 1.390 mmt vs estimates of 1.000-2.400 mmt. Overnight markets were higher once again, but were already trading in the red at the coffee break. Corn broke through support at 3.43 March Futures and we couldn't manage to close above that level, so that is bearish near term. Beans tried to battle back after being down 9 cents, but still closed lower. Crude oil is the leader again today, up another 2 bucks on more follow through from yesterday OPEC deal. Corn processor basis continues to pick up slightly as farmer selling in corn is slowing even more with the futures struggling.   Bean basis is still a struggle as we try and get more competitive in the world.

Month end today and the pressure continued on the grain markets. We had beans up 9 overnight and for a few minutes this morning, but that didn't last long. Crude oil is the big story today up over 4 bucks on an OPEC production control deal.   We another sale announced to China this morning for beans, but we also hear more rumblings of China buying a slug of beans out of Brazil for Feb and March. The US is just not competitive at the moment. The US dollar is up strong again today now at 101.50. That is not helping get more exports on the books. Basis continues to be weak on soybeans. On the corn side of things we have a slightly different story. Ethanol plants are starting to show signs of life with little new farmer movement. Rail bids seem to have found a bottom and are up slightly. The futures are helping the cause to get basis to improve. For the month corn was down 14 cents on the futures and beans were up 21 cents. It was an interesting month to say the least. It will be interesting to see if this money wants to come back tomorrow in the bean market to start a new month.

Overnight markets had beans up nearly 19 cents at one point. 10.60 Jan Futures was our target and we even managed to break that level just after midnight as it broke out to 10.65. We never tried to reach that level again throughout the day as 10.60 held. I am still looking for a sell off the next couple days as month end is upon us and we are due for a correction. Since November 17th beans are now up 67 cents. That type of rally deserves some sales. Selling did pick up today for both old and new beans. Orders filled for cash N/C 17 beans at 9.50 last night, so if that sounds attractive to you lets get some orders in. Bean export inspections were solid at 76.8 million bushel vs expectations of 66.1-77.2 million.   Basis weakens today on heavy farmer movement. Corn on the other hand has done very little. Today we had about a 3 cent range all day long. Export inspections on corn were lower than expected at 31.5 million vs estimates of 33.5-41.3 million.   Since November 17th corn is up 6 cents.   We just can't seem to get any life in corn.   Lets look for some turn-around Tuesday action tomorrow as funds take some profits.

Export sales were phenomenal this morning as both corn and beans were well over expectations. Bean exports have bounced back nicely from the big drop two weeks ago and today were almost double that number at 69.76 million bushel. That was enough to spark the bean futures to make another leg higher. 10.60 Jan is still the next target. There are only 3 trading days left in the month, so look for a continued bounce early next week with a possible sell off to close the month as the funds lock in a nice gain for the month. Corn exports were a tick higher from the previous week at 66.5 million bushel. Total commitments on corn are way ahead of last year at 29.3 million tons vs 16.6 last year. That is a good sign, but corn is still reluctant to follow beans on this rally. Hopefully you had a good Turkey day and have a good weekend as well. Travel Safe.

Happy Thanksgiving!!

Beans continue their march higher after an early morning sell off. Bean oil continues to be the story up another 2.40 today. EPA announced advanced biofuel 2017 Mandate higher than expected today. The mandate was 280 million gallons above the estimates. This tells us a great part of why soybeans are rallying, but be careful. This is still fund driven and things can change quickly. EPA also jumped the 2017 ethanol mandate by 200 million gallons, which would equate to about 70 million bushels of corn. Everything helps when we are looking for a home for a record crop.   Corn basis seems to be finding a little support, but its slow to recover. Bean basis…not so much. I think a March or May HTA is a great idea for beans that you have in the bins. We can lock in these futures and give basis some time to recover. Let me know if you have any interest in that. This close on beans is a new high close and like I mentioned yesterday this opens the door to 10.60 Jan futures. Market is open until noon on Friday.

Fund buying continued today as we managed to break through some stop orders at 10.31 Jan futures, which was the high from 10/27/2016. This opens the door to some additional buying with the next level of resistance at 10.60 Jan. Basis continues to tell us a completely different story than the futures. Rail markets are garbage and look to continue to struggle as South America wants to export beans earlier than normal. Brazil beans are much cheaper to China starting in January, which is not a good sign for U.S. exports. Processors were starting to get hungry for beans, but this rally should have helped them get some coverage. Farmer sales picked up even more today for both old and new beans and that should continue. There is almost no reason behind this rally except for fund buying, so please keep in mind how fast things can change once the funds decide to take profits. Make some sales at these levels. Corn has been a reluctant follower and doesn't seem to want to participate.

Today was a product of fund buying into the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Outside markets were all able to chime in as well and support the grains. Crude oil up nearly 2 bucks, the Dow up 60 points, and the dollar is down slightly. Export inspections were all better than expected once again, but remember we need every bit of them to stay on pace. Beans soared higher today and closed right at the top end of the range at 10.20 Jan futures. This is a level that should see a solid round of selling pressure. N/C 2017 sales also picked up today as we approached 9.15 - 9.20 cash. South American still looks good, so it seems weird to me that the funds want to continue to add to their length. Will this continue for the rest of the week as the volumes get lighter? I think this is great opportunity to add to sales for both old and new beans. We know that the world is still swimming in beans today and without a problem in South America the funds are going to have a hard time adding to their position to break us out of this range. Corn was also up 4 today, but is still about a dime from the top end of its range. Selling did pick a touch on corn today as well.

We had another USDA announcement to China today of 165,000 mt of Soybeans. Yesterday the grains tried to rally into the close on the excellent NOPA crush number on soybeans, but we couldn't manage to hang onto the gains today. Nothing has really changed overnight as neither the bull or bear has anything to grab onto at the moment to break out of this range. The only factors staring in our face today is the huge supply and good early demand to start the year. We are stuck in a range for now and that looks to continue for a while. We are stuck waiting to see how the South American weather looks to get their crop started. We are still picking up hints that SA has more old crop beans available for export. It seems like more volume is available all the time and every little bit they have is a negative to US exports. Keep that in mind. Farmer selling has completely shut off, so we will see if basis can react. For now it seems like a pretty slow improvement. Export sales are out tomorrow morning.

NOPA crush for October was excellent and above even the high end of the guesses at 164.6 million bushels. A new record high for October. That might have helped futures a touch, but the bears are still in control and look to trend this market lower on the USDA report big supply numbers. Most traders agree with the 480 mil bushel carryout that the USDA provided. If we have higher bean acres in 2017 as projected we could see the 17/18 carryout near 540 million. That paints the bearish scenario without a weather problem in either the US or South America. Funds are still long in beans and if we don't have a weather problem in South America how long can they hang onto that position? Corn traded up 4 cents today and is only about 2 cents away from the 100 day moving average at 3.43 Dec Futures. The general theme is that corn needs to trade lower just to entice more export business. We are still stuck in the trading range of 3.20 - 3.60. Look for that to continue.

Pressure in the grains continues as the US dollar is up another full point breaking the 100.0 mark for the first time since December of 2015. The Brazilian currency was once again a little softer. None of which is going to help U.S. exports any time soon. Brazilian soybean plantings are estimated 63% complete, which is ahead of last years pace. The #1 state of Mato Grosso is estimated as high as 90% complete. Farmer selling in SA has also been very heavy due to the break in their currency. The USDA did announce a couple sales today of Sorghum and Soybeans. Bean export inspections were solid for the week at 102 mil bushel. Corn inspections were poor at 24 mil. Harvest progress will be out tonight at 3 pm. Tomorrow NOPA will be out with their estimate on US October crush. China government is starting to crack down on speculation in their commodities, which is triggering some liquidation in their grains. We will have to see how that plays out. The first level of support in Jan beans is at 9.67, the second level of support is at 9.40-9.45. Those levels are very possible to achieve.

Overnight markets were wild once again. Beans traded 20 cents higher at one point and were up 10 on the coffee break. Instantly when the market opened back up at 8:30 they turned lower. One of the main reasons for the commotion is the Brazil currency falling apart. Because of their currency cheapening up it makes them more competitive for exports over the U.S. They also said it has sparked some interest in farmer selling in Brazil. I mentioned last week that we could have a very volatile week and we have had just that. Outside markets have been a huge factor. The USDA report was very bearish. The election still has a lot of pros and cons to weight out yet. Look for the volatility to continue for a while with a bias towards trading lower. Farmer selling has completely shut off, so we will see if that starts to help basis, but for now the market is flooded with grains. Ground piles will need to be picked us well, which will bring more grains into the nearby markets. Today is Veterans Day and I would like to thank everyone that has dedicated their service to our country. Have a good weekend!

Overnight markets had a wild range in beans. At one point overnight beans traded up about 25 cents, but couldn't manage to hold onto that much a gain for very long. At the morning break beans were up 15 and we chopped lower than that the balance of the day. Export sales this morning were good for corn and poor for beans. USDA announced 140,000 tons of corn to Saudi Arabia and 126,000 tons of beans to China. Everyone is still searching for a reason for the bounce overnight. Cash beans over 9.00 deserve a sale if you have not done so already. With the report in the books and the election out of the way I would expect to stay range bound for now with a chance to move towards the lower end of the range. Outside markets are higher again with the DOW up 250 points and the dollar up .300. U.S weather continues to be warm and dry and allowing harvest to wrap up.

Yesterday the markets acted like election was over before it started….Then when the tide turned last night the outside markets went into a panic. The outside markets tanked instantly before battling all the way back and finishing higher almost across the board. The Dow had a range of about 1100 points today. Trading down 900 points at one time and is currently up 200 points. Crude was down about 2 bucks and is currently up 30 cents. The US Dollar was down 2 full points and is currently up .75 points. It is not often we get to that much volatility in all these markets. To top it off we had a USDA report today. The news was very bearish across the board. Corn yield was expected to drop slightly with the average guess at 173.2 bpa. Instead the USDA raised it nearly 2 full bpa to 175.3. That put production up to 15.226 billion bushels up about 169 million bushels from the October estimate. The 16/17 US corn carryout got pegged at 2.403 billion bushel. That is up 83 million from the October estimate. Bean yield got pegged at 52.5 vs an average guess of 52.0. Bean production is at 4.361 billion bushels up 92 million from October. US Bean carryout got pegged at 480 million vs 395 in October. The big surprise on beans was once again the global carryout. The USDA pegged the world carryout at 81.53 million tonnes vs an average guess of 76.98. Bottom line is that we have huge supply both in the world and the US.   

Election day…Go get your vote in. Believe it or not 6 out of 6 times the market has been up on the last 6 election days. The problem with that is, 5 out of 6 days the market has been lower on the following day. Tomorrow will be another crucial day as we have the USDA report at 11:00 AM. Thoughts are that corn yields will be slightly lower with estimates around 173.2 bpa. Beans yields are guessed higher at 52.0 bpa. I could see the bean yield being higher than that. Basis continues to be very sloppy on both corn and beans. The deferred months are sloppy as well. The rally today is purely fund buying once again. The market seems to be telling us the democrats have already won. We continue to be range bound on both corn and beans. Be selling the top end of the range.

This could potentially be a volatile week in the grains. We have the election tomorrow and then the USDA report on Wednesday. Both could have a large impact on the grains. Weather continues to look good ahead to get harvest wrapped up, so that is also causing some pressure as space gets tight everywhere. Harvest progress will be updated this afternoon. Corn estimated at 81-83% and beans estimated at 91-93%. The USDA had a couple flash sales announced this morning. 172,000 mt of corn sold to Unknown and 132,000 mt of beans to China. Export inspections were solid again for beans at 96 million bushel. Year to date exports on beans are at 597 vs 517 last year. Export inspections on corn were near 35 million bushels. Year to date exports are at 399 vs 218 last year. These export numbers continue to sound huge, but remember that we are right on pace with the USDA expectations. We need the business to put a dent in this monster supply. The dollar was sharply higher today up about 3/4 of a point at 97.74. Let’s see what tomorrow brings with the election. Get your votes in.

The beat continues downward in the grain market. Both corn and beans were under pressure right from the get go after a slightly higher open. FC Stone was out with their new guesses on yields. The came up corn at 175.3 bpa vs their previous guess of 175.2. USDA is currently at 173.4 bpa. There is still some thinking the USDA could potentially drop from their corn yield on November 9th. FC Stone's bean yield is 52.8 bpa vs their previous guess at 52.5. USDA is currently at 51.4 bpa. Expectations on Nov 9th are about 52.0 bpa, but I wouldn't be surprised to see higher than that. Even with the board down strong the last two days basis has not improved much. The supply is large and the world has plenty of beans to deal with. A South American issue is needed to have any hopes to getting to new highs. USDA announced another 132,000 tons to China this morning, but that is just routine business. Informa will be out tomorrow morning with their updated guesses. Export sales will also be out in the morning. Weather continues to look great to finish US harvest. South American weather is basically normal as well at the moment.

Yesterday we had huge export inspections on beans, to the market says we should have known that already. Like I mentioned yesterday we are right on pace with the USDA exports expectations. Today the market decided supply was still getting bigger on thought that USDA will raise the yield on November 9th. There were more rumors around about Brazil exporting more beans to China for Dec and Jan, which again is taking business away from the U.S. Weather looks good for to finish up US harvest in the next 2 weeks as the forecast is warm and dry. Harvest progress was released last night with corn at 75% harvested and beans at 87% harvested. Informa will be out on Thursday with their estimates on updated yields and production. Jan futures should have support around the 9.80 area. Dec corn support is at 3.43. I would expect those areas to be tested before November 9th.  

Weekly export inspections this morning were huge once again for beans. This weeks number was 105 million bushel, out doing last weeks 100 million inspection. Even though these numbers sound very high, we need every bit of them to stay at USDA's export pace. Right now we are still right on schedule to meet their demand and we still need more to make up for a big yield. Corn inspections were at 31 million, which was right in line with expectations. We also had another bean sales announced to China this morning, along with a sorghum sale to unknown, and a corn sale to Barbados. Harvest progress will be out this afternoon and expectations are at 75% done on corn and 85% done with beans. Funds continue to buy soybeans on big export business and a fear of South American weather becoming an issue. Does that remind you of anything?....A fear of bad weather…..Just like the US had a fear of in May and June. Never happened! The forecast in SA looks favorable for the next 2 weeks. Brazil soybean planting pace is ahead of schedule. That doesn't sound like a problem to me….yet.  For the month corn futures were up 18 cents and bean futures were up 48 cents.  Not bad for big month of harvesting.

Beans managed to test the 10.20 Nov resistance today and once it did we backed off about a nickel. Export sales were out this morning and everything was about as expected. Meal was actually a little light of expectations, but guess what led the market higher today….Meal! Meal was up over 8 bucks on the day. Can we break through 10.20 Nov? I have my doubts. USDA had a couple flash sales this morning with 396,000 tons of beans to China, 129,000 beans to Unknown, and 204,000 ton of sorghum to China. The sorghum seems a bit odd. We are nearing month end so we could be in line for some profit taking. Beans are now 77 cents off their lows on October 13th. These levels warrant some sales. Basis continues to be weak as the nearby markets are swimming in both corn and beans. US weather looks warm with normal precip to finish out harvest. South American weather might be more important at the moment and so far it is considered normal. The only concern is too much moisture over 20% of Argentina. Like I mentioned yesterday if we don't see a problem in SA it is time to make some sales for new crop 17 as well.

Beans led the way higher today as we broke into new highs at levels we have not seen since August. 10.20 Nov futures is the target for the time being and that level should hold as stiff resistance. That is only a dime away after today’s rally. Have some orders working just under that level and take advantage of this rally. I heard some more rumors today of 2 more cargos of Brazil beans being sold to China for January 2017. This is not going to help US demand. Basis levels continue to be weak as harvest pressure continues and storage gets tight. I think it is worth noting again that we also need to be looking at new crop sales for both corn and beans. Dec 17 futures near 4.00 and Nov 17 futures are over 10.00. This could be an opportunity. Without a problem arising in South America it is hard to be real bullish and today they are looking ok.

The USDA announced a sale this morning of 516,000 mt of soybeans sold to China. That is the 17th largest flash sale. That is the good news. The bad news is that China is still looking at Brazil beans as well. Brazil sold them 4 cargos for Nov-Dec shipment, which will cut into US demand in the peak of our bean export season. Once the sale was announced at 8:00 am it seemed to spark some interest in the futures and we got within 2 cents of yesterday's highs. By 9:30 am though beans were down 7-8 cents before battling back to near unchanged for the day. The upside on beans at the moment is about 30 cents from here, but today there is just nothing to push us to that point. We will need to wait and see how the weather shapes up for SA. Corn was a non-event today trading about a nickel range. Not much new there as heavy harvest pressure continues. Basis continues to be weak on the front end and that is going to continue into November.

Overnight markets had beans up strong due to higher world vegoil prices and strong demand. Export inspections this morning once again had a huge bean volume of a cool 100 million bushels. That is not a record amount, but it should make the top 10. Beans traded right up against 10.00 Nov futures, but couldn't break that level and broke lower. This is a good opportunity to sell more beans. The bean yield should continue to get bigger on the next report. Corn exports were not near as good at only 21 million bushel. Corn harvest had a big weekend and that added some pressure. The 2 week forecast looks good as well with normal to above normal temps and normal rains. The USDA was out with the harvest progress report this afternoon and came up with corn at 61% harvested and beans are at 76% harvested. Nothing much to worry about there.

Export sales were huge today for both corn and beans. Corn exports came in at 1.02 mmt vs estimates of 700 - 1.000 MT. Bean exports were 2.01 mmt vs estimates of 1.000 - 1.300 MT. We had another sale announcement on beans to Unknown of 192,000 tons on the wire this morning as well. Once again the market tried to rally on the news, but couldn't make it last very long. Buy the rumor, sell the fact. That has been the case with export sales just about every week lately. We know we have good exports, but we also need that to continue to offset record yields. We continue to be stuck in a range just bouncing back and forth. 3.48 Dec futures and 9.70 Nov futures should be support. Beans did tick a new high by 2 cents, but it only last a few minutes before we started retracing. A private advisor was out today saying to put sales on around 3.72 March corn futures and 9.94 Nov futures. He is also recommending new crop sales around 3.98 Dec 17 and 9.93 Nov 17. Those levels are not that far way.

Overnight markets were very quiet, but beans caught a bid instantly this morning after another sale was announced to Unknown. We are only a penny from our recent high on corn and a nickel on beans. The initial corn target is still 3.65 Dec futures. Bean resistance is at 9.82 and that is exactly where we close today. This is a selling opportunity to lighten the load on a big yielding crop. Export sales will be out in the morning and the thought is that they are going to be huge. Buying volume in the final minute of trade was very heavy, so we will have to see if we can break out of this range tomorrow. The price later deadline for last year’s bushels is tomorrow. If the bushels are not priced tomorrow they will be priced on Friday at 8:30 am on the open. Please be aware of that. Crude oil has hit a 15 month high today over 51 bucks. Basis continues to be sloppy and today there is rumor that SA has some beans available for export before December. That is not good news for U.S. business.

The USDA announced a sale to China this morning of 706,000t of beans for the 16-17 marketing year. That is one of the largest sales we have seen in a while. Funds initially continued to buy this morning as we made a new high in beans for the move at 9.87 Nov futures. At about noon everything started to collapse. The gulf bean market crashed today, so the demand is also telling us this rally is about money and nothing more. Harvest progress last night was pegged at 46% on corn and 62 % on beans. Both are slightly under average, but for the most part there are no issues. Weather remains good for the next 2 weeks for more progress. Nothing has really changed in the last week to get this rally. I think we continue to be range bound for a while and we are getting closer to the top end of the range. Corn could potentially have another 10-15 cents to rally and beans another 20 cents, but we need to consider making sales. Yields are still impressive and upside should be limited. Be paying attention to the 2017 futures as well. Dec 17 near 4.00 and Nov 17 near 9.90 could be a good place to start.

Export inspections were way over expectations on beans and that seemed to spark some more buying interest. We traded to new high levels for the move and managed to close right at the high. Like I mentioned on Friday this rally seems to be strictly fund money drivin, so be careful. There is nothing out here today that says we need to rally any further. There were no sales announced at 8:00 am this morning. Funds are known to buy in 3 day increments, so we will have to see if that holds true tomorrow on turn around Tuesday. The good news is that the funds bought beans right into close and managed to close them right nears the highs. Harvest progress will be out tonight and the guess has corn at 49% and beans at 62%. The 2 week forecast continues to look good for more progress. For those of you with price later bushels for old crop, the deadline is this Thursday. This could be a great opportunity to get more beans sold. Basis and spreads are not showing any signs that we need to keep moving higher.

Today was a wild day in the markets and it was also a point where farmers became slightly more interested. Corn traded up as much as 9 cents just under the 100 day moving average at 3.60. The technicals are lining up to be friendly, but this is strictly a money move so be careful. 3.60 Dec is the first target on tap, then 3.65, and the top end could pencil in at 3.74. I personally don't think we get that high, but the funds will decide that. If we get anywhere near that I strongly suggest sales. Start paying attention to Dec 17 Futures as they approach 4.00. That could be a good HTA sale if the carryout stays over 2 billion. Once again basis is sloppy as we rally for basically no good reason. Sales picked up heavily today, so the funds took on a good amount of hedge pressure on as well. Export sales were on the low end of the guesses for corn today, but beans were very strong once again. Next week could be interesting to see whether this market wants to test those levels. Harvest progress will be great this weekend, so that could add some pressure early next week.   Have a good weekend!

No export numbers today as that is delayed to tomorrow since we had a government holiday on Monday. The day started out pretty quiet before wheat picked up a bid and corn decided it wanted to follow. Beans traded lower the entire morning hours. At about 10:45 corn caught some more money flow and before you know it we were up a dime erasing all of the losses from yesterday's report. Why? Nobody has answer…. So here we are sitting just below 3.50 Dec futures. We have been stuck in a range from 3.25 - 3.50 for the past couple months. Can we break out? Unless we get a reason for what happened today I have my doubts. For those of you with Price Later bushels that need to be priced by the end of next week, now might be as good of a time as any to pitch the rest. Basis continues to slide and I don't think that will change anytime soon. The deferred months are just as weak as the nearby on the PNW. Hopefully business picks up in Jan-Mar, but for now we are stuck.

Report day is in the books and without too many surprises. Corn yield was pegged at 173.4 bpa (average guess 173.3). Corn carryout for 16/17 was put at 2.320 billion vs the average guess of 2.373. World carryout for corn at 216.8 million tonnes vs an average guess of 219.0. Everything was pretty much in line for corn. Bean yield came in at 51.4 bpa (average guess 51.5). Bean carryout for 16/17 at 395 million vs a guess of 414. The gain in production was partially offset by an exports increase. The big number here that was bearish is the world bean ending stocks. The USDA came in at 77.4 million tonnes vs a guess of 73.3. That number is what caused the stir in this report. Initially when the report came out beans and corn traded it positive. Beans traded up 17 cents shortly after the report broke. By 11:30 we were back in red figures. Harvest progress was out last night and we were slightly behind expectations. Corn is at 35% harvested and beans are 44%. It looks like we should have another good week of progress ahead.

Corn and bean export inspections were great once again, but the market didn't seem to care once again. Basis got pounded yesterday afternoon on corn and now the PNW is starting to worry about being competitive. It was not just the nearby bids either, as they spread all the way out to the deferred months. That is not a good sign going forward as previously the PNW was going to be on fire this year. Things change in a flash! Tomorrow is report day, so that will determine our direction for a while. The new estimates for the report have corn at 173.3 bpa down from 174.4 on the previous report. It might be too early into harvest to change the yield that much on corn. The estimate on beans is at 51.5 vs the previous guess at 50.6 bpa. I am not convinced that 51.5 is even big enough as the bean yields have been huge. Farmer selling has been slow, but steady on the beans. If we get any upside ahead of the report tomorrow I would think about selling a few. Harvest progress will be out tonight at 3:00. Indications have corn about 42% and beans about 52%. The next 2 week forecast looks favorable for more progress.

Today was a very quiet day in the grain markets. There is no update on harvest progress until tomorrow as today is a holiday for the Feds. Everyone else has to work. We have a chance of rain tomorrow and then it looks ok again to have a chance at getting done with beans locally. Basis continues to weaken on corn, but beans have started to level off. Storage space is becoming an issue everywhere. Hearing of places going cash only and that could be a strong possibility locally as well real soon. The USDA report is on Wednesday and it is tough to see how it could line up too friendly….Time will tell.  

Export sales were huge this morning for both corn and beans, but the market didn't seem to care. Corn took the biggest hit on the chin down 7 cents. Beans traded down as much as a dime, but managed to battle its way back to up a penny. Everything was basically the same story just a different day. Basis continues to weaken on both corn and beans. The two week weather forecast is going to allow decent farm activity throughout the corn belt. Space for beans is becoming an issue everywhere and that is also starting to show in basis levels as well.   Everyone is waiting for the report on the 12th. Expectations so far are bigger beans yields and smaller corn yields. One thing to consider….Over the last 20 years the corn yield from Sept-Oct has only dropped 5 times. Is it too early to start dropping the yield when we are only 30 percent harvested?

Fear of a higher US 2016 supply is putting pressure on the bean complex. Informa was out today and pegged the national bean yield at 51.6 bpa. They raised the yield in ND, SD, and MN. I wouldn't be surprised to see something over 52.0 on the USDA report next Wednesday. Informa pegged the corn yield at 174.5 bpa. They raised the yields in MO, ND, SD, and CO, but they were offset by lower yields in IN, OH, and AR. Basis continues to be the weak link on the nearby markets, but that should improve once harvest is done. Once this crop gets put in the bin it is going to be tough to pry it back out. Spreads could be influenced by that pace of farmer movement after harvest. Right now the carry from Dec-Mar is just under a dime. If the farmer decides not to sell anything that spread could potentially be at a nickel. The rain in the Midwest last night is going to put a delay on things for a bit, but the next 2 weeks look to dry out. Please consider your soybean moistures once we start back harvesting.

We had a small corn sale announced this morning to Unknown. News was quiet otherwise. Harvest progress last night had beans at 26% harvested and corn at 24% harvested, which was right at expectations. No surprises there to trade today. Estimates on the national bean yield are up to 51.3 vs the USDA at 50.6. I am not sure if that is even high enough. Estimates on the corn are around 172.5 vs the USDA at 174.4. The USDA will update their numbers on the 12th of October. Corn is still looking strong fundamentally as 3.60 Dec futures would be our next target. If we get that high it will spark some selling for old price later bushels and new crop as well. Beans feel like they are stuck in this range and are going to have a hard time working higher with harvest activity. Basis continues to slide on both corn and beans again today. It is getting ugly and it could get worse as space gets tight. Hopefully we can avoid the big rains predicted for tonight, so harvest can keep on track.

Corn and bean export inspections were strong this morning and allowed the grains to pop higher and follow thru on Fridays gains. Early weakness failed to uncover any fresh selling and we managed to reverse the market on short covering / tech buying. Dec corn managed to close above the 50 day moving average and Nov beans are testing it as well. Resistance on corn was at 3.44 and we managed to close above it, so that could spark some more buying interest. This was the first day in a week that we didn't have any morning sales announced, but remember that China is on Holiday. We will have an update on harvest progress at 3:00 today as it should have been a productive week. Yields are still eye popping on the beans and it is getting hard for me to see how we are only at 50 bpa national average. Basis continues to widen out as space becomes an issue everywhere and the PNW gets to capacity for October.

The USDA report was basically a non-event today as the numbers came right in line with the expectations. Sept 1 corn stocks were 1.738 billion bushels and the guess was 1.754. Bean stocks came in at 197 million bushel and the guess was 201. The market initially reacted a couple cents weaker, but then turned higher. Corn finished up 7 on the day and opens the door for a little bit more strength. 3.40 - 3.50 Dec futures would be the next target. I have my doubts on this though. My explanation for today's bounce would be month end squaring. Funds are short a lot of corn and they could have just took some profits. We will have to see if we can hold the gains next week. The next report on the 12th with an update on production will be much more entertaining. Bean harvest is going to have a huge weekend as the weather allows nearly everyone to roll. Have a good weekend.

Another USDA announcement of beans sold to China this morning. They are on holiday next week, so this week has been busy. It is month end tomorrow, so we might see some funds lifting positions ahead of the report. The report will be the key at 11:00 AM. Most experts are leaning towards a slightly bearish report. Yields remain very large on beans and it looks like the USDA might need to raise production even more. Harvest progress picks up daily across the corn belt as we continue to dry out. More rain though is still in the forecast for next week, so the window is fairly short in the western belt.   The east should have a little more time to go. Basis was slightly weaker again today, but should be starting to steady out for now. Hurry up and wait for tomorrow's report and once that is out of the way the next report is only a couple weeks away. That report could be more important at the moment to see how much they raise production.

More sales were announced this morning on the wire. Beans to unknown and also beans to China. There was also a very large sale of corn to Mexico for both this year and next year. Basis continues to weaken on beans as harvest ramps up and October sales are about at capacity on the PNW. The country is still seeing the farmer sell beans at these levels. The USDA stocks report is on Friday, but a lot of traders seem to be writing it off already. They think the USDA report on Oct. 12th will be more important. I guess we will find out in time. After yesterday’s nice bounce and technical turn around we just wiped out those gains today.   I would guess we trade a small range for now until we get to the report. We have export sales tomorrow morning and that should be about it for news until 11:00 AM on Friday.

Beans made a new low this morning after breaking through the previous low of 9.37 Nov futures. The good news is that it didn't last long. We managed to finish the day up 7 cents and 15 cents off that level, so we managed to escape the first attempt of breaking out lower. The next target lower was pointing towards 9.20 Nov futures. Yields still remain large on the beans and the weather has dried out allowing harvest to have a catch up week. Harvest progress last night had corn at 15% vs 19% average and beans at 10% vs 13% average. We had another USDA sale announced to China this morning, but those could come to a halt next week as they go on holiday. Crush margins are also very favorable. The report on Friday is near, which will likely decide if we want to make new lows or not, but we should be safe for now after today's bounce. South America is on tap for some precip, which could have been part of today’s early weakness. There are still a fair amount of beans moving off the combine and I would expect that to continue. Please keep in mind to set your combines correctly on soybeans. Excessive pods become a huge issue once we put them into the bin.

Harvest Pressure continues as this week's weather looks like we could make some progress.  The 8-14 day forecast is back to looking very wet at the moment for the western belt.  We had another bean sales announced this morning to Unknown.  Export inspections were solid for corn, but poor for beans.  It was the lowest number on beans we have seen in a while.  Yields continue to be impressive on beans. Corn Yields remain variable and so far it doesn't look to be record setting.  Harvest progress will be out this afternoon with estimates at 15% for corn and 12% for beans.  Basis levels continue to erode as harvest picks up steam.  Barge freight is having some issues with high water levels.  The next USDA report is Friday at 11:00 am.  Early predictions have old crop stocks going up on beans, which has been the case 3 out of the least 4 years.  The current corn yield might be a bit overstated, but there is a lot of harvest left to go.

Harvest pressure continues in the bean market as progress continues where it can. More moisture hits this weekend, so delays will continue elsewhere. Next week has hints of warming up and drying out in the corn belt. Some privates put bean harvest progress at approx 9 percent. The biggest news on the day had to do with DDG exports to China. China has enforced import duties against US DDG's. China is the US's largest importer of DDG's, so this could have a major impact on ethanol margins. Reminder that the next USDA report is Sept 30th. News is quiet today, so lets what weather has in store for us next week.

Export sales were no help today as they were pretty much as expected. Two more bean sales were announced this morning to China and Unknown. Heavy rains are slowing harvest progress as S. MN, Wisc, and N Iowa have a big sloppy mess. The wet weather looks to stick around through the weekend and then hopefully dries out. The Fed's decided not to change interest rates, which in turn leads to a weaker dollar. Today was very quiet as the market just basically sat still and had a very small range. We are now waiting for the Sept 30th stocks report as the next market mover. Yields remain impressive all over the corn belt. There are a number of beans being sold off the combine, so I would expect any rally before Sept. 30th to be very minimal.

More USDA bean sales were announced this morning to 3 different countries. Turn around Tuesday was in play today and we lost all of yesterday's gain. We had a nice 49 cent rally since last Wednesday. Beans yield continue to be eye popping as 70-80 bushels is starting to be coming in the east. So far the farmer seems willing to sell beans off the combine. I think that trend continues and if the yields continue to impress we will see new lows beans in the near future. Basis dropped hard today in Mankato as they are telling us they have coverage. Rains continue to delay harvest in the Midwest and that looks to continue for a couple days yet. Early corn yields seems to be a quite a bit more variable, but are not near as impressive as the beans so far.

USDA announced a small sale of beans to China this morning. We need more of that! The market is currently worried about wetness and harvest delays. I am not in that camp as of yet, because there just isn't very man beans that are ready to go. My trip to Illinois last week verified that as well. There are a lot of beans that are still a week or two from being harvested. Basis on the PNW continues to be weak for corn and beans, but should improve quickly once harvest is complete. We still need to see the business show up as the USDA says it should. Beans yields are eye popping so far as harvest gets going. The new harvest policy is out and you can see the entire copy on our website. Everything is basically the same except for the storage charges. Corn charges will be 4 cents per month with no minimum. Beans charges will be a flat 20 cent fee, which will be good for the entire year. The deadline for pricing will be October 19th for price later bushels.

Have a safe harvest!

Selling excels after yesterday's USDA report as traders start to paint a more bearish scenario. If the USDA estimates come true it would leave a corn carryout at 2.384 billion bushels, which leave a carryout to use ratio of 16.5%. That is the highest ratio we have seen since 2005 when the average farm price for corn was $2.00 according to Kansas State University. That right there paints a very ugly picture to me, so we better hope export sales are at record highs as predicted. I think we will make a new low here yet in September, but I think we bounce back in October when we start seeing some yields. Beans are painting the same type of picture today now that the USDA posted a yield over 50 bpa. The first level of support on Nov beans is 9.39, and the next would be the psychological level of 9.00 futures. Demand remains very strong for beans, so I wouldn't think we could go much lower than that. Crop ratings last night were unchanged once again. Reminder: The GPC annual meeting will be Thursday Sept. 15th at the Murdock Elementary School. A meal will be served from 5-7 pm and the meeting will follow.

USDA report had no real surprises as the yields stay high as little has changed since last month. USDA pegged the corn yield at 174.4 bpa down slightly from their August publication. That puts a total US corn production at 15.093 billion. That is a pretty healthy supply, so export business needs to keep pace. They USDA pegged carryout at 2.384 billion bushel. On the bean side, they guessed yield at 50.6 bpa. That is up a bit from the previous guess of 48.9. Total production of US beans at 4.201 million bushel. US carryout pegged at 365 million, up 35 million from their August estimate. Beans took the biggest hit today as they were trading up about 9 cents prior to the report and finished down 16 cents. Corn was fairly quiet all day trading a 8 cent range on the report. The report didn't give the bulls what they wanted, so now we wait from early yields.